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Monday, December 27, 2010

Gone Bowlin'!

I won't lie. Right now the college football season is going pretty well. I mean, through eight games only two have had any excitement and no one went to the games. But personally, I'm 7-for-8 in my Bowl Pick 'Em thus far. But come the New Year the low-tiered, pretty pointless bowls will start to wrap up, and it will be time for the big boys to step out onto the field in the BCS games. That means it's time for my second annual BCS predictions! Technically it's the third straight year I've done them, but it's the second year I've done them on this blog. Last year I went 2-3, and the year before I went 3-2, so I'm a solid .500 so far. So let's begin!

On New Year's Day is the Rose Bowl between Big Ten champ Wisconsin and #3 (and undefeated) TCU. This is a very interesting match-up to kick off the BCS games. Wisconsin is playing as well as anyone in the country, including Oregon and Auburn, and is powered by the nation's biggest and best offensive line and three capable running backs, all with over 800 yards rushing. This is their first BCS game since the 1999 Rose Bowl. TCU, in their second straight BCS game, is still looking for national respect. Looking at their schedule they beat only two ranked teams (#24 Oregon State in the season opener and a very overrated #5 Utah), but are ninth in the country in total offense and has a defense that leads the country in points allowed (11.4/gm) and yards allowed (215.4/gm). However, for all the statistics, they haven't seen an o-line that has two All-Americans and four returning starters all over 310 pounds. At 6-foot-7 and 327 pounds, Outland Trophy winner Gabe Carimi (who may be the best player in the nation) leads the way, and will do just that as Wisconsin runs away with a 35-24 win.

Later Jan. 1 is what most are expecting to be the most lopsided BCS game over when #7/Big 12 winner Oklahoma takes on the Big East "winner" Connecticut in the Fiesta Bowl. After stumbling to a 3-4 start out of the gates, UConn won their last five games to win a share of the conference title in a terrible Big East. Outside of Jordan Todman, the nation's second-leading rusher, the offense is non-existant, and the secondary is shaky at best. Many are calling the Huskies the worst BCS team ever. Oklahoma (11-2) should expect to pick apart the UConn defense and roam freely in the secondary, as Landry Jones and the third-ranked passing offense have a biiiiiit of an advantage. But don't expect a 40 point blowout. The Sooners will move the ball, but in their five-game win streak the Huskies have forced 17 turnovers -- while committing only five of their own. And the UConn offensive line is none too shabby, having dominated defenses since Halloween. Oklahoma will snap their five-game BCS losing streak, but it will be closer than expected. Sooners 32, Huskies 21.

Jan. 3 is the Orange Bowl between ACC-champ Virginia Tech and Pac-10 champion Stanford. This very easily could be the best bowl game of the season outside of Oregon-Auburn. Virginia Tech has been a totally different team since their 0-2 start, having not lost since then. ACC Player of the Year Tyrod Taylor has led the way, throwing a school-record 23 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions, and has added over 800 rushing yards. The defense is average, but like UConn they force a lot of turnovers (their 22 picks are second best in FBS). However, Stanford has Andrew Luck. A junior, Luck is considered to be the number one pick in next April's draft (if he declares, and if there is even a draft at all). He has over 3000 yards in the air, 28 TDs to just 7 INTs, and has completed a ludicrous 70 percent of his passes. So what gives? A defense that forces a ton of turnovers or a quarterback that rarely throws even an incompletion, let alone interceptions? I'll take the latter, as the Cardinal win 33-28.

The Sugar Bowl sees two at-large bids when Arkansas and Ohio State meet on Jan. 4. Ohio State is third in the nation in scoring defense. Arkansas has one of the most electrifying offenses and is third in passing. Ryan Mallett is turnover-prone, however, with 11 interceptions, but many coming in key situations (i.e. late in the fourth quarter against #1 Alabama). Terrelle Pryor of the Buckeyes is lucky to even be playing after the NCAA found that he and four teammates violated the rules by selling their rings, jerseys and awards, as well as receiving free tattoos. Which leads me to this week's tangent!!

There is absolutely no reason Pryor and his four teammates should play this game. The NCAA found they were wrong. In every prior situation that means immediate suspension. Georgia's AJ Greene sold a game-worn jersey -- a single jersey -- and was suspended immediately for four games. The six Buckeyes sold multiple jerseys and other memorabilia. Last year Oklahoma State's Dez Bryant was suspended for 10 games for talking to Deion Sanders and lying about it. The Buckeyes did not report their violations, and Pryor wrote on his Twitter page that he paid for all his tattoos. HE LIED. The NCAA tried to get out of it by saying that the players didn't deserve to be suspended because they were unaware they were breaking the rules. This just in: the reason Bryant lied was because he didn't know he was breaking the rules! Did that stop NCAA officials? Not even a little bit. But because the players are from Ohio State and it's a BCS game, Pryor and his teammates get to play. If it were any other team short of Michigan and Notre Dame, and I do mean any other team, these players get suspended. But because they are from the historic, precious Big Ten, they get to play because it is a "once in a lifetime opportunity". That shouldn't matter. It's like a parent saying "Oh, you snuck out, stole the car and crashed it? That's fine! You didn't know you were breaking the rules! So you can go to the concert tomorrow, but after that you are grounded!" And because most of them will be drafted, they can leave early, thus avoiding any punishment whatsoever.

Okay, tangent over.

Ohio State is 14th in rushing yards per game, while Arkansas is mediocre in stopping the run. Of course, they also had to face the likes of Cam Newton (Heisman winner), Mark Ingram (2009 Heisman winner) and Trent Richardson (most underrated back in the nation and best sidekick since Arkansas's Felix Jones backed up Darren McFadden). Although Jim Tressel's crew snapped their BCS losing streak in last year's Rose Bowl, they won't be extended any winning streaks, as the Razorbacks will throttle the Buckeyes 52-31.

Then there's the big one, when Auburn and Oregon play for the national title. Both teams have high-powered offenses. Oregon leads the nation in points (49.3/gm) and is fourth in rushing (over 300/gm) and has the football version of Mike D'Antoni's "Seven Seconds or Less" offense that he made famous with the Phoenix Suns. Auburn is sixth in points (42.7/gm) and rushing (287/gm) and is led by Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, who is becoming as good a thrower as he is an athlete. The outcome in this game will come from the defensive side. Who will make a key stop? Because it seems as though neither offense can be stopped. My heart wants the Ducks to win, but I can't figure out how they will be able to stop Newton when teams like Alabama (sixth fewest yards allowed per game), LSU (eighth) and Florida (ninth) could not. The Tigers will win the national title -- outright this time, as opposed to 2004. Auburn 52-45.

After the title game I will post the results in the sidebar, and hope to get above the .500 mark.

Monday, December 20, 2010

You Haven't Done Nothin'



Stevie Wonder sure was right. Donovan McNabb hasn't done nothin'. The storyline going into Sunday's Redskins-Cowboys game was 'Skins coach Mike Shanahan's decision to bench starter McNabb in favor of Rex Grossman. When the announcement was made, Fletcher Smith, McNabb's agent, called the move "beyond disrespectful." Spare me. For all that McNabb has done in his career, Mike Shanahan and the Washington Redskins owe him nothing. And while I don't think the coaching staff has handled the situation properly, for Smith to play the "veteran-is-disrespected" card is just ridiculous.

In a phone interview, Smith said of the benching, "Disrespectful is probably not strong enough of a word. Donovan has handled himself with nothing but class, not just in Washington but as an ambassador for the league. To treat him this way ... it's beyond disrespectful." 


Newsflash to Fletcher: This is sports, where 99 percent of organizations demand results now (Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Pirates excluded) and for a quarterback who is in his first year on a new team, the past doesn't matter. What has Donovan McNabb done for the Redskins in his 12 years that Shanahan should think to himself "Gee, he's accomplished so much for me that I shouldn't be so quick to pull the plug."? Nothing, that's what. If this were Philadelphia, it would be different. In Philly, McNabb took the Eagles to the Super Bowl, five NFC Title Games and eight playoffs. He is the overwhelming franchise leader in every passing statistic, is 14th all-time in rushing and seventh in rushing touchdowns. In ten years fans will go to Lincoln Financial Field and see #5 alongside the other retired numbers in Eagles' lore.


But that is in Philadelphia. 


In Washington, none of that matters. Fact is, McNabb led the team to a 5-8 record and five losses in six games. He is 26th in the league in passer rating. Do you know who has a better passer rating than Donovan's 77.1? Jason Campbell. Alex Smith. Chad Henne. Carson Palmer. Do you realize how bad Carson Palmer has been this season? He's thrown 18 interceptions and had about 100 more dropped. He throws solely to Terrell Owens the majority of the time. And he's still got a higher rating than McNabb. 


McNabb has thrown more INTs (15) than TDs (14). He is 28th in completion percentage (58.3%). Fact is, because he is Donovan McNabb he got the starting nod because he, in theory, gave the team the best chance to win. If he were Jason Campbell, Alex Smith or Chad Henne, he probably would have been benched four weeks earlier. This is in some ways similar another quarterbacking situation involving He Who Shall Not Be Named On This Blog over in Minnesota, who wouldn't have been playing by Week 6 if he were Tarvaris Jackson.



Then there is the part where Smith said that McNabb deserves to start because he has "handled himself with nothing but class, not just in Washington but as an ambassador for the league." Unless you are doing something criminal or just plain stupid, that doesn't matter on the field. Charlie Batch has been recognized for his work in, among other things, helping underprivileged youth, those without food, those without shelter and advocating against gang violence. I would say he is a pretty good ambassador for the NFL. Yet when Ben Roethlisberger returned from his four-game suspension, I didn't see Batch's agent calling it "beyond disrespectful." And note that in the two games Batch started this season his passer rating (76.2) was not much worse than McNabb's, so this comparison isn't entirely dumb.



And the last two games of 2010 don't look good for him, either. Grossman didn't win against the Cowboys, but he didn't play poorly. His four touchdowns were two more than McNabb has thrown in any one game this year, and his two picks were something McNabb has done four times. Rexy's 93.7 rating topped all but two of McNabb's ratings, and he brought the team back from a 20-point deficit early in the third to tie the game with 7:37 to go. I mean, sure, it was against a Dallas defense that is 31st in points allowed, but some merit has to go into the comeback.


As for the off-season and beyond, well, that doesn't look too hot either. The five-year, $78 million extension he signed on Nov. 15 (which was followed by a 59-28 drubbing at the hands of the Eagles on Monday Night Football) has a clause where the team can get out the deal after the season. It is highly unlikely you will be seeing McNabb in the nation's capital next year.

For that, Redskins fans should only have one thing to say: All hail Rex Grossman!! Please draft Jake Locker!!

(NOTE: Stats from ESPN.com, pro-football-reference.com, and NFL.com)
Check back next week for my 2nd annual BCS prediction post!

Friday, December 3, 2010

Stop With the BCS BS

People seriously need to stop complaining about the BCS. This is the 13th year of its existence, and every year there has been an issue with it. There have been snubs (i.e. 11-1 Texas Tech in 2008), BCS-busters who have been discriminated against (Boise State in '06 and '09) and questionable BCS representatives. Countless solutions have been proposed: a playoff format, a plus-one system, basically anything not based off a computer. This year the problem has been with the Big East, whose members have -- to say the least -- underperformed a bit. Still, come Saturday either unranked UConn (7-4) or #24 West Virginia (7-3) will most likely accept a bid to the Fiesta or Orange Bowl. Meanwhile, it looks like #8 Michigan State, who finished 11-1, will be left out of the BCS bowl picture for being the third-lowest ranked Big Ten team (#5 Wisconsin will represent the conference as champions and #6 Ohio State will get an at-large bid... no more than two teams from the same conference can be in a BCS game). But to all the whiners out there, I have only one thing to say.

Stop it. Because no matter how much you complain, no matter how big a temper-tantrum you throw, nothing will be done.

Is anyone from the Big East deserving of a BCS bid? No. I'm not stupid. The conference has three wins against BCS opponents in 14 tries: West Virginia's massacre of 8-4 Maryland, UConn's trampling of SEC bottom-feeder Vanderbilt, and South Florida's overtime squeaker against underachieving Miami (FL). The Mountaineers needed a miracle comeback and overtime to beat in-state rival Marshall (5-7). Rutgers needed three quarters to get going against FCS opponent Norfolk State. And in what were supposed to be high-profile match-ups, Oklahoma edged two-time defending champion Cincinnati and Miami (FL) annihilated Pittsburgh, who was picked to win the league, 31-3. Pitt, who is currently 6-5, also lost their home opener to Utah. Until this week, when the BCS ranked West Virginia at #24, no Big East team had made an appearance in the rankings in five weeks. Currently no team is ranked in either the AP or Coaches' Poll, and none have since October 23. Basically, the conference has sucked.

Still, though, this is not the first time a three- or four-loss team would receive an automatic BCS bid. This is just the most scrutinized occurrence. In fact, it has happened three times:

  • In 2002 Florida State finished the regular season 9-4. They lost to #1 Miami (FL) and #6 Notre Dame, but also lost to Louisville, who would finish 7-5, and unranked NC State. They went to the Sugar Bowl and lost to Georgia by 13.
  • The Seminoles faced the same situation in 2005, when they finished 8-4, losing to Virginia, NC State, Clemson and Florida (the latter three in consecutive weeks). The Gators were the only team ranked out of those four. They lost to Penn State in the Orange Bowl in triple overtime.
  • In 2008 Virginia Tech opened the season with a loss to East Carolina (unranked) to fall from #15 to unranked, then re-entered for two weeks before losing to Boston College (unranked) and #24 Florida State in back-to-back weeks, and then lost to a 7-6 Miami (FL) team. They were not ranked, but won the conference and beat Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl.
Most say West Virginia would do best in a BCS game. And by best I mean people believe they'll lose by the least amount. Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, though, their destiny in the hands of the Huskies. UConn started 3-4, ending that start with an uninspired 26-0 blowout at the hands of Louisville. But since then the team has won four straight, including wins over West Virginia and Pitt in consecutive weeks. If they win at South Florida -- another streaking team coming off a program-defining win against Miami -- they get the automatic bid. If they lose and West Virginia beats Rutgers (which will happen... the Scarlet Knights have completely collapsed in recent weeks), then the Mountaineers get the bid. If both teams lose and Pitt beats Cincinnati, then the Panthers, at 7-5, go bowling BCS style. If all three teams lose and there is a five-way tie in the conference between UConn, Pitt, West Virginia, South Florida and Syracuse, then it turns into a five-team mini-conference, and Connecticut would win based off their 3-1 record against the other four teams. Wouldn't life be so much easier if the Huskies won Saturday?

The main argument against the Big East, but specifically the Huskies and Mountaineers, is that they aren't as deserving as, say, Michigan State, LSU, Missouri, Boise State and Nebraska/Oklahoma (whichever loses in the Big 12 title game), all of whom will most likely not get an invitation to a BCS game. Michigan State is the victim of an unfortunate rule. I can't really argue this. But for all the other teams, they have no one to blame but themselves for their participation in lower-tiered bowls because they all broke (or will break) the unwritten rule of college football: don't lose after Halloween. If LSU beat Arkansas last week, they would be in. If Missouri didn't lose in consecutive weeks to Oklahoma and Texas Tech (the latter of which came on November 6), they would be in the Big 12 title game. If Boise State makes a few more plays and beats Nevada, they're in. (Note: This game was not lost entirely on the two missed field goals by Kyle Brotzman. There were plenty of other opportunities for the Broncos to put the game away and they didn't). And whoever loses the Big 12 title game, well, win and you'd be in, too. It has been the way the system has worked for years, and it will continue to be that way at least for the near future. A Big East team could be 10-1 right now and it wouldn't make a difference: none of these teams would be playing in a BCS bowl game. You may not agree with it, but complaining is going to fall upon deaf ears, as I don't believe the BCS computer has a built-in microphone to which you can talk into.

And who's to say UConn or West Virginia would automatically get blown out? UConn hasn't lost since Oct. 23, and WVU since Oct. 29. It looks like the Big East winner will face either the ACC champion in the Orange Bowl or the Big 12 champion in the Fiesta Bowl. That means they will either face Virginia Tech, Florida State, Nebraska or Oklahoma.

For UConn, they should be able to run, run, run all day. Jordan Todman is second in the nation in rushing at over 145 yards per game, has rushed for over 100 yards in all but one game he's played in this year, and is the UConn offense (the passing game is 113th in the nation). That being said, teams know this, but that hasn't stopped Todman and the offensive line, who have played as well as any line in the country over the past month. In the last four Husky victories Todman has averaged 161 yards per game. And those four opponents? Three are in the top-25 in fewest rushing yards allowed per game, and the fourth (Syracuse) is in the top 50. None of the four possible opponents are among the top 25 in this category. They are all middle of the pack. Sure, the secondary is a bit shaky, and in any shootout the Huskies would fade pretty quickly, but don't count them out entirely. Their defense gives up a lot of yards, but gets key turnovers. Against West Virginia they forced seven fumbles, recovering four. Among those included one on fourth down and another inside their own two-yard line in overtime. Against Cincinnati they forced five turnovers. In all they have forced 14 turnovers in their four straight wins, to just three turnovers of their own. I don't think the Huskies will win should they get the bid, but I think it could be closer than most people think. (And just remember, this Huskies team won five straight games to end 2009, including a dominating effort over South Carolina -- the same South Carolina who beat #1 Alabama and could very well upset #1 Auburn this weekend. Just saying.)

As for the Mountaineers, their defense is pretty damn good. Through 11 games only two teams have surpassed the 20-point plateau against WVU: Marshall scored 21, LSU scored 20. They have given up 10 points in three consecutive games. They are third in the nation in total yards allowed per game. The unit is, in a word, dominating. The offense is turnover-prone and Noel Devine has suffered nagging injuries all year, but something tells me with a few weeks off, he'll be just fine for the final game of his collegiate career.

I understand the criticism the Big East is facing. In all honesty, no one from that conference is worthy of a BCS bid. But by rule, someone will in fact get a bid, and it will be, barring the unforeseeable, UConn or West Virginia. I'm not saying either team will win. I'm not guaranteeing the game will be close. But please, stop with the B.S., because nothing will change, one of those teams will go to a BCS game, and, contrary to popular belief, they very well could compete.

Another year, more BCS madness. You know, just like usual.


Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Blast Back to the Past: A Look At My March Baseball Predictions

Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants. They were merely one of many, many teams, players and managers to make me look incredibly dumb with my March predictions. But, hey, I can't be right all the time. Now that all wthe awards have been handed out, and the 2010 season is now 100% behind us, we'll look back and grade the predictions based on a scale of -3 to 3, then go and give myself a numerical score that will judge just how truly stupid I was eight months ago.

1) The New York Yankees will repeat as World Series champions. Made it to the ALCS and were the World Series favorites, but lost because their starters couldn't pitch. Score: -1

2) The Phillies will make it to their 3rd straight World Series. Again, made it to the NLCS, but their bats went silent against the outstanding San Francisco pitching rotation. Score: -1

3) Curtis Granderson will become a superstar. In his first series against the hated Red Sox he hit a game-winning home run to get off to a fairly good start. However, he missed nearly all of May and could never get going. Hit only .247 with 24 home runs and 67 runs batted in. Score: -2

4) In a related note, the Tigers will realize that replacing Granderson with Damon will be an issue. Granderson had three times as many home runs (24 to Damon's eight), a higher slugging percentage (.455 to .401), one more stolen base, a far better WAR (3.6 to 1.9) and his UZR (ultimate zone rating) was 5.3 to Damon's 0.6. In a related note, the Tigers decreased in wins due to an offense that couldn't do anything without Miguel Cabrera and went from a second place finish in 2009 to a third place finish in 2010. Score: 2

5) Steven Strasburg will be average at best this season. Alright, if this kid's arm heals and returns to full strength, he'll be a star. A 5-3 record (with zero run support), 92 strikeouts in 68 innings (including 14 in his major league debut... though that was against the Pirates) and a sub-3 earned run average. It's too bad he had Tommy John Surgery and will miss most of next year, too. Even though his ERA in August was above 5, i'll still say he far exceeded my expectations. Score: -1

6) Roy Halladay will be fine in the regular season, but come the playoffs, he'll be in for a rude awakening. He was a unanimous choice for the NL Cy Young Award, with a 22-10 record and 2.44 ERA. And he threw the second no-hitter in postseason history. Still, in the NLCS he wasn't anything special, splitting two games with Tim Lincecum. However, I think Charlie Manuel messed up here. Halladay should have pitched on short rest and started Game 5, not Game 6. Instead Joe Blanton couldn't make it out of the fifth inning and the Phillies went down 3-1 in the series. So that isn't Halladay's fault (though he should have demanded the ball... an ace should when his team is facing a 3-1 hole). Score: 0

7) Albert Pujols will win another MVP. He finished second, so I wasn't too far off. All it took for someone to take the award away from the Machine was for Joey Votto to go after the Triple Crown. I'll give myself a point. Score: 1

8) Ivan Rodriguez, Adam Kennedy, and Willy Taveras may be names, but it won't stop the Nationals from finishing last in the NL East. 68-93, 28 games out of first place, 10 games behind the fourth place Mets. I-Rod played 111 games, Kennedy 135 and Taveras only 27. Still, something tells me Taveras' .274 average, eight homers and 128 RBIs (in seven seasons) wouldn't have made a difference. Score: 3

9) 3 of these 5 managers will be fired by August 1st: Manny Acta, Dave Trembley, Dusty Baker, Lou Piniella, Cito Gaston. Alright, so Dusty Baker didn't lose his job, considering the Reds won the division. Dave Trembley was canned by Baltimore on June 4th. Piniella and Gaston either announced their retirement (Gaston) or actually retired before the season ended (Piniella), but I don't think either was pressured to do it, but both organizations probably saw it coming before August 1st. Score: 1

10) Texas will have one of the best offenses in baseball, but will be a .500 team.
The team led the majors in batting average and hits, was fifth in RBIs and on-base percentage and struck out the third-fewest times. Nothing new. However the team finished with 90 wins, in large part because of the efforts of CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis on the mound (then Cliff Lee until the World Series). The offense was just as good as past years. I just didn't see the pitching coming around like it did. Score: -2

11) With the addition of Chone Figgins, Ichiro will score 120 runs. Wanna know how terrible the Mariners offense was this year? Only four players played more than 95 games. Figgins hit a dreadful .258 -- and it was third highest on the team. The fact that Ichiro scored 74 runs is a freakin' miracle. Score: -4 (yes, the scale is -3 to 3. That's how bad a prediction it was)

12) ESPN won't be the same without Peter Gammons. Tim Kurkjian is nice, and so is Buster Olney. But Gammons was irreplaceable. Baseball Tonight was considerably less interesting without him there. Score: 3

13) The only teams capable of beating the Yankees in a playoff series are the Red Sox and Mariners. I said this because of their pitching. And that is exactly how the Yankees lost -- they ran into a team with strong pitching. Too bad it wasn't the fairly disappointing Red Sox rotation (that means you, John Lackey), or the Mariners (who did finish in the top 12 of the league in ERA, opponent batting average, earned runs and allowed the third fewest walks). So I knew what it would take to beat the Yankees. Again, I just never thought it would be the Rangers who had the staff. Score: 0

14) Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum, and Jair Jurrjens will be the NL Cy Young candidates. Josh Johnson had a streak of 13 starts without allowing more than two earned runs. Had he not been hurt in the second half, he would have ran away with it. Ubaldo Jimenez won 15 (not a misprint) games before the All-Star break. He should have easily won. However, he only won four games the rest of the year and disappeared down the stretch, even as the Rockies challenged once again for a playoff berth. Lincecum had a good season by most standards (16-10, 231 strikeouts) and will probably finish fourth or fifth in voting. Jurrjens was hurt for much of the season, could only make 20 starts and had a terrible WHIP (1.39).  Roy Halladay was the unanimous choice. Score: 2

15) The NL West rides on the arm of Brandon Webb. Webb didn't make a start, Arizona had all sorts of pitching problems (towards the bottom of the league in ERA, batting average against and strikeouts). And the D'Backs never really contended. Score: -1

16) These will be this year's playoff teams: AL - New York, Minnesota, Seattle, Boston (wild card) NL - Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Francisco, Atlanta (wild card) Got five out of eight teams right, and give me a break on the Sox (if they didn't have so many injuries they would have made it fairly easily). However, that more than gets cancelled out by the Mariners.... oh, the Mariners... Score: 1

17) The Royals will be 2nd in the AL Central on May 1st. By June 30th they will be last. Hey! For once the Royals started the way they finished: a terrible team! They were five games out and third on May 1st, and were already out of it by June 30th. Score: 1

18) Joe Mauer, Lance Berkman, and Derek Jeter, all in their last year of their contracts, will stay. Mauer signed an enormous deal right away, and it looks as though Jeter is going to stay a Yankee (it has to happen). Berkman, though, was traded to the Bronx. Two out of three ain't bad. Score: 2

19) Ozzie Guillen will feud with Jake Peavy at least twice. Peavy only started 17 games and went 7-6. Not worth $15 million by any stretch of the imagination. Unfortunately, no feuds, though. Score: -2

20) The NL East will be the best race. The Yankees and Rays had the tightest race, but it was a well-known fact that whoever finished second would get the wild-card. That goes out the window. You could make a claim for the NL West, but for the entire second half people were wondering if the Phillies were stumbling and if the Braves were for real. Then the roles flipped and led to the best long-term race. Score: 2

21) The AL West will be the 2nd best race. The Rangers had a stranglehold on the division. After July 25th their lead was never fewer than seven and a half games. Score: -2

22) The Pirates will trade Zach Duke and/or Andrew McCutchen. Duke went 8-15 and had an ERA of 5.71. McCutchen was the lone bright spot. Both were on the team all year. However, literally a minute before I was about to hit "Publish", I saw that Duke was traded to Arizona. So technically it wasn't during the season, but he was traded. Originally I was going to give myself a score of -3. New Score: 1

23) With José Reyes back, David Wright will once again hit 25 home runs. Wright hit 29 home runs. Reyes played in 133 games. Score: 3

24) This is the penultimate year for Mariano Rivera. Rivera had 33 saves this year, but have no one in line to replace him, as Joba Chamberlain proved nothing. Looks like Mo will have to go past 2011. Score: -1

25) Evan Longoria will win AL MVP. Longoria was very quiet. He had a solid year (.294, 22 homers, 104 RBIs), but was never amazing. Josh Hamilton ran away with MVP honors in convincing fashion. Score: -2

26) JA Happ and Jayson Werth will launch into superstardom. Happ only appeared in 13 games due to injury, and Werth struggled early but finished very strong, hitting a shade under .300 with 27 HRs and 85 RBIs. He finished eighth in MVP voting, and one of the most sought-after free agents this summer. Score: 1

27) Daisuke Matsuzaka will milk another injury in Boston. Matsuzaka made two trips to the disabled list for a right forearm strain. It was probably legitimate. Probably. But still, he has not been a "bust" but by no means has he been worth the billion and a half dollars or whatever it was that the Sox spent to get him. Score: 1

28) Managers of the Year: Don Wakamatsu, Bobby Cox. Wakamatsu was fired, Cox probably would have had it not been for the surprising Padres and Reds. The Twins' Ron Gardenhire and the Padres' Bud Black won the award. Score: -2

29) Brandon Webb and Garrett Atkins will be Comeback POY: Webb made one short-lived start. Atkins played in 44 games. Maybe I was a year too soon with these picks. Francisco Liriano and Tim Hudson won the award. Score: -3

30) The Marlins and Braves will be 2 of the NL's 5 best teams. Well, the Braves were. The Marlins finished two games under .500. Score: 1

31) Alfonso Soriano is no longer in his prime. By a long shot. Hit a nice and pathetic .258. Yeah, he had 24 homers and 79 RBIs, but he also had nearly as many strikeouts (123) as hits (128). Score: 3

32) Adam Lind will be the Blue Jays offense. Jose Bautista hit 54 home runs in leading of the most powerful offenses ever (in terms of home run hitting at least). Lind hit a dreadful .237 and hit only 23 home runs. Score: -3

33) Matt Holliday will redeem himself for last year's error. My boy hit .312, 28 homers and 103 RBIs, winning a Silver Slugger Award and going to the All-Star game. Although St. Louis didn't make the playoffs, Holliday had his fifth consecutive solid season. Score: 3

34) Brad Lidge makes a triumphant comeback this year. Well he wasn't 48-for-48 like he was in 2008, but his ERA also wasn't 7.21 like it was in 2009. He had a respectable 27 saves in 32 chances, striking out 52 in 45 2/3 innings of work and lowering the earned run average to below three. Not a triumphant comeback, but a good rebound nonetheless. Score: 1

35) Chan Ho Park will be the next Chien Ming Wang for the Yankees. Park went 2-1 with an ERA over five before being relegated to the minors traded to Pittsburgh. He was about as effective as Wang was in 2009. Score: 2

36) Griffey, Edmonds, and Vlad go out quietly. Griffey retired with a day of sadness around baseball, but nothing extraordinary. Edmonds played in only 86 games and drove in 23 runs. Vlad, though, had a huge resurgence, hitting .300 and surpassing 100 runs batted in. Score: 2

37) In his 1st at-bat of interleague play, Joba Chamberlain gets hit by a 95 mph fastball. Seeing as he wasn't a starter, he didn't get an at-bat this year. But I still dislike him. A lot. Score: 0

38) Tim McCarver says approximately 1.5 idiotic things per inning. Just how dumb is Tim McCarver? Before the World Series, partner Joe Buck was on Pardon the Interruption on ESPN doing an interview live. McCarver walked by and, oblivious of the camera or the fact that Buck was talking to it, smacked Buck on the shoulder and started talking to him. Then, when the games were actually played, here were some of my favorites: "The Rangers aren't hitting because the Giants are pitching."
"He's been throwing up some bad dreams to the Texas Rangers." Score: 3

 

39) Manny will say it's his last season in LA, then it's not, then it is again at least 10 times. Well seeing as he was a pain in Joe Torre's ass and ended the year an unproductive member of the White Sox (what's that? unproductive and White Sox are redundancies? Good to know). Score: 2

40) Minka Kelly is shown on camera at least five times per game. So I must say that I barely saw the Yankees play at all this year, but I'm going to assume that she was on at least occasionally. Plus, I need a few points. Score: 1

41) On a related note, Kelly will put the same curse on Jeter that Kate Hudson put on A-Rod. Jeter had his worst year since he was a rookie (though he still won a Gold Glove that was totally unjustified), and I am 100% attributing it to the lovely Minka Kelly. Score: 3

42) After breaking the single-season passing, rushing, and receiving records by Week 6 of the NFL season, Tim Tebow signs with a contender, wins MVP in the LCS and World Series, and in doing so makes his case for the Baseball Hall of Fame. This will be followed by Tebow returning to the NFL and winning the Super Bowl on a last second 76-yard touchdown run. It was a pipe-dream, but I shouldn't be surprised that Tebow didn't do all this. After all, he's humble. He simply didn't want to take the spotlight away from the already-unpopular baseball players (and by unpopular, I mean far less popular than NFL players, unless your name is Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols or Derek Jeter). Score: -3

Although it didn't seem like it, my score was a 16. I don't really know how good that is, because I couldn't figure out an accurate scoring system that would figure out how well I really did. So take from that score what you will. And in reality I probably -- okay, I knowingly -- gave myself an extra point here or there to boost my score that otherwise would have been shockingly terrible.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Still Sore Losers

There may not be a more tortured fan base than Cleveland. Not having won a championship of any sort since 1964, the city has come close numerous times, only to have their hopes shattered by some terrible play or occurrence. They even have names for all of them, which need no clarification (in fact, going into detail may or may not get you shot if you are anywhere near East Cleveland). "The Shot", "The Fumble" "The Drive", The Decision. Just the mere mentioning of some names make the city collectively cringe. Jose Mesa, Art Modell, LeBron James. One would think that a fan base like that deserved some sort of success. But looking at how Cleveland fans have conducted themselves since the Decision, especially after the incident that occurred after the Browns' overtime loss to the Jets last week, it made me realize something: those fans don't deserve it.

To recap, the quietly dangerous Browns lost a key fumble late in overtime to New York, then four Cleveland defenders let Santonio Holmes weave through them like they were tackling dummies en route to the end zone. Among those in the stands was a Jets fan who lived in Cleveland, but was born in New York. He decided to take his eight-year-old son to the game, the boy's first ever NFL game. Being New York fans, they wore Jets jerseys. The game was fine, but afterwards, according to the boy's mother, Cleveland fans began throwing food and yelling at the boy and his father. Then, one drunken idiot tackled the boy to the ground. Not accidentally pushed or ran into him. But actually full on tackled the kid, leaving him with some scratches and a few tears.

Are you serious? A little kid?

Look, I'm as big a sports fan as anyone. As I was watching the Steelers get manhandled by New England last week I was getting angry at the television. But it's just a football game. Sports are meant to be a distraction from life. They aren't supposed to get this real. No amount of "fandom", no amount of alcohol, can be used as a defense in this case. No matter how passionate a fan you are, does the game really matter that much? Win or lose, you still live your life just the same. The only difference between winning and losing is -- or should be -- a few minutes of being annoyed or happy. Of course there are exceptions. When the Browns left Cleveland fans had a right to be angry and hold a grudge against Art Modell. Conversely, when New Orleans won the Super Bowl last year the entire city earned the right to party. But short of something drastic, there is absolutely no reason to be so emotional to the point where you lose self-control.

And in this case, the lack of self-control and common decency was disgusting. It would have been bad enough had this happened to some drunken Jets fan who was going around bragging about the win. But no, it happened to be a father who was minding his own business after a nice afternoon enjoying football. And he was with his kid. Kids are off-limits. If you feel the need to harass or make fun of a little kid for being a Jets fan, you are sick. But to go all the way and tackle an eight year old is the lowest of lows. People who do that are scumbags. It shouldn't have to be said that kids are off-limits. The fact that it needs to be shows how insanely stupid Cleveland fans have become.

Could it be that I'm being a little unfair for judging an entire city's fan base off of a group of idiots merely because of one isolated -- although sickening -- incident? You could make that argument. But ever since the Decision, fans have been nutty. Just look at the night James said he was leaving. Fans burned a jersey in the streets. Extra police was called in to handle crowds. Fans disowned LeBron, like he was some sort of monster. He's a basketball player. Obviously he handled the situation very poorly. He should have told the organization before that he wasn't coming back. He should not have announced it in a one-hour, nationally televised event. It was a backstabbing move. But do you really think the city would have reacted any differently had he done it via a press release at noon on a random Tuesday? I don't think so. The jerseys still would have been burned. The police would have still been called upon and fans would still be incredibly bitter.

I get it that LeBron inspired hope in the city. He was born there, he was raised there, he was supposed to give the city something to cheer for.  But it was entirely his right to leave Cleveland. Nowhere under the term "unrestricted free agent" is there some magic fine print that says "except you have to stay with your original team." Do I think he made the right choice? No. He handled the entire process poorly and he chose the wrong team. But that doesn't give the city a right to go berserk. It doesn't give them a right to go "Oh, woe is us!" It doesn't give them a right to act however they want. Most people are expecting the Cavaliers to finish well below .500 this year. The Indians are still rebuilding. The Browns are perennially terrible. And to be honest, that's exactly what this fan base deserves right now.

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar once said "You can't win unless you learn how to lose." You would think that after all these years, after all these heartbreaks, the city of Cleveland would have learned by now. I guess not, and until they do, I hope they never get to experience success. They aren't ready for it.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Ten Weeks, Four Questions

The NFL season has passed the mid-way point, and it is time for a valid question to become clear. Who is the best team in football? In past years there was a clear answer. In 2007 it was the Patriots. In 2008 it was the Steelers and Titans. Last year the Colts and Saints. But this year? Oh how it is different. Every week we learn something new. We think things are finally beginning to settle down. Then the next week all that comes crashing down, and we have an entirely new set of "best teams." But this week, with many high-profile and divisional games, things will begin to pan out and shape the rest of the season. Many questions will be answered. Here are the four big questions to be answered starting Thursday night.

Is the AFC or NFC the early favorite for the Super Bowl? 
Thursday night sees quite arguably the the AFC's best team against the NFC's best team when the Falcons host the Ravens. Baltimore's defense is still one of the top five in the game, but they are beginning to show signs of weakness and age. They give up 104 yards a game on the ground, and face Michael Turner, who is coming off his best game of the year against the Buccaneers. The pass defense is fourth in the game, but they also haven't seen anyone nearly as good as the Matt Ryan-to-Roddy White connection. Meanwhile, the Falcons defense can't stop the pass, and Joe Flacco isn't quite an elite quarterback, but he's good enough for 250 yards and three  scores. Right now these two are considered the best in their conference. If one team kicks the crap out of the other, it could be a good indication as to which conference has the upper hand, and has the apparent advantage for Super Bowl XLV in Dallas.

Who is the best team in the AFC?
The Jets had this title to start the year, but lost it after a pathetic Week 1 showing offensively against Baltimore. If you asked two or three weeks ago, it was the Steelers. Too bad they couldn't show up on Halloween against the Saints, then needed a defensive stand in the red zone to stave off a comeback by the woeful Bengals. Their pass defense has looked like an issue as of late. Then the title went back to the Jets, who then got shut out by Green Bay and needed a collapse by the Lions to win in overtime. Then it moved to the Patriots. They didn't just lose to the Browns. They got the living crap kicked out of them. Now the Ravens have the title, which is at stake Thursday. If the Ravens lose, the title is once again up for grabs. And the 6-2 Steelers face the 6-2 Patriots Sunday. Expect this to be the game of the week. The Steelers secondary against a Patriots receiving corps that always seems to do well because Tom Brady is under center. The Patriots always-shaky secondary against the league's best quarterback at keeping plays alive and making cornerbacks cover receivers for six, seven, eight seconds. I am expecting a very close game. And the playoffs should be among the most exciting in years (at least on the AFC side), with the potential for the Jets, Patriots, Steelers and Ravens to play each other in some order for spots in the conference title game.

What will the AFC South look like?
The 4-4 Texans play the 4-4 Jaguars. The 5-3 Colts play the Bengals. The 5-3 Titans travel to Miami to play the Dolphins. For the Colts, this could be an upset game. Think about it: they just lost a tough road game against the Eagles, they are playing a 2-6 Bengals team at home and next week they travel to New England to take on a team that has perennially beaten them in the past. They need the Patriots win to keep pace with the rest of the conference. And they are beat to hell, with their receivers being Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and whoever else they could find off the streets of Indianapolis. Look for the Bengals to take their solid fourth quarter against the Steelers and continue that in Indy. I'm not saying Cincinnati will win, but don't expect a blowout. For Tennessee, the Dolphins are a dangerous team. And with Chad Pennington (who I honestly thought retired like last year) as the starter for Miami, the Titans' defense is guaranteed to see a mistake-free game from the quarterback position. Both the Titans and what's left of the Colts should win, but both could easily lose. and with the winner of the Texans-Jaguars game at 5-4, there could conceivably be a three-way tie for first place, with the last place team a game behind. There could also be a two-way tie, with the Houston-Jacksonville winner still fine and the last place team in a bit of a hole. The shaping of the division will be a lot more clear after this week.

Will the Giants essentially clinch the NFC East come Tuesday morning? 
As ugly as the Giants have looked at times this season (see: Weeks 1-3, Week 6 against the Lions), they are 6-2 and considered an NFC favorite. Their ability to not only get to the quarterback, but to throttle them and somehow injure all of them is incredible. Of course, their ability to turn the ball over is just as incredible. But with the dreadful, discombobulated, drama-filled 1-7 Cowboys coming to East Rutherford Sunday, theory has it they should cruise. It is Monday night's matchup that could determine the rest of their season when the Eagles play the Redskins. With a Philadelphia win, the Eagles would go to 6-3 and remain a game back (this is assuming the Giants take care of business). If Washington wins, both the 'Skins and Iggles will be 5-4 and two games back. This puts the Giants in a much more comfortable position. They still won't be able to put it on cruise control, but it means a slip-up later in the year (say, a loss to Jacksonville or Minnesota) wouldn't be as bad.

This is a key week. Soon it will be put-up-or-shut-up for many teams. Especially this year, where only a handful of teams are out of the mix already and seemingly anyone can lose on any given week, every game is important. It has been a long time since there has been such little dominance by any one team, and there are no guarantees for anyone going forward. But Week 10 of the season should see the start of things clearing up, as only six games affect nearly half the league.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Brett Favre Needs to Stop Streaking

There are a decent amount of things I hate in sports. These include, among others: Alex Rodriguez, LeBron James, Tom Brady, Notre Dame football and when people say "we" when talking about their favorite team (you are not a member of the organization, therefore you cannot say you are a part of the team). Before this season, I didn't hate Brett Favre. I still have few ill feelings towards the man. I personally think he should have retired after last year, but I understood why he couldn't let go. However, I hate... no, no, I loathe, that damn consecutive games streak, because it is the only reason Favre played last week, it is the only reason he will play this week, it is the only reason he will play the remaining ten games. This stupid streak is only causing more harm than good.

The only good thing I can say about this streak is that people should cherish it while it lasts, because there will never be another streak like it. Football is too physical, the players are too fast and too strong, and a player playing 19 seasons will be unfathomable going forward. But now, this streak is beginning to look like the last three seasons of Scrubs. It should have gone away once NBC dropped it (in Favre's case, when Green Bay GM Ted Thompson told him it was now Aaron Rodgers' team), it was stale and worn out when it changed networks, and the last season was just pathetic. But no, Favre came back, and heck, last year he had one of his best statistical seasons ever.

But because of this streak, this terrible, horrible, no good, very bad streak, he came back again this year. I can guarantee that if he got hurt in, say, 1996 and missed a game, he would have retired a Packer. But no he didn't! And a bum ankle be damned, Dr. James Andrews did his magic and number 4 was dressed up for the purple and gold for Week 1. Last week he was questionable, but sucked it up, threw three interceptions and was called out by head coach Brad Childress. Now it was admitted this week that he has two fractures around the ankle. Normally most people would sit out a week or two, but Brett Favre isn't most people now is he? Because he has to start, he's going to miss practice (because as he showed this pre-season and last week, he doesn't need practice), wear a walking boot and throw three picks as the Vikings go to 2-5 and get lambasted by the Patriots.

And it's not like Brad Childress has a choice as to playing Favre or not. Tarvaris Jackson is the backup, and a 42-year-old man with a crappy ankle and an off-the-field distraction is better than him. And because Favre loafed around, Jackson is the team's only other option. It wasn't a QB-heavy draft this year, so one who was available (i.e. Jimmy Clausen or Colt McCoy) would not have been game-ready. And because Favre waited until Jared Allen, Ryan Longwell and Steve Hutchinson had to physically drag him off his lawnmower the team couldn't enter in the sweepstakes for a Donovan McNabb, Jason Campbell, or even Jake Delhomme (just as many picks, only fewer distractions). And more importantly for Childress, if he benched Favre, he would go down forever as the Man Who Ended the Streak. I mean, he was blasted by the media for calling out Favre's three picks against the Packers! Did you see the one that was returned for a touchdown? Even Jay Cutler laughed at that. The media firestorm that would ensue if he actually had the chutzpah to bench THE Brett Favre would officially end the world. ESPN is already Brett Favre Central, but with that it would become BFPN (Brett Favre Programming Network).

(Semi-related tangent: People are wondering if his legacy is being tarnished. Obviously it is. What's really bothering me, though, is that people are considering him a Top-3 quarterback of all-time. This is insane. My list of all-time great QBs is: Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Johnny Unitas, Peyton Manning (will be higher by the time all is said and done), John Elway, Tom Brady, possibly Steve Young, then Favre. That's eighth. Call me cynical, but I don't care if he leads in every major statistical category known to man. Look at stats per game. Manning, Brady and Marino have/had more passing yards and wins. Everyone except Marino have championships to their resumé (and Montana, Unitas, Elway and Brady have multiple), so Favre's lone ring doesn't exactly stand out. And he throws significantly more picks than all those names, especially in crunch time. This season is worse than others for Favre, obviously, but the poor decisions are nothing new. I would not have him in my top 10 for quarterbacks I want down four with a minute to go in the Super Bowl (the seven I mentioned before, then add in Bradshaw, Staubach, Otto Graham and possibly Bart Starr). In short, Favre is a sure-fire Hall of Famer. But he's not the greatest ever.)

Of course Favre is going to start Sunday in Foxboro. He's started 291 straight games. And although he should have retired after start 253, then after 269 and then after 285, he'll keep the streak going. At this point it is the only thing going for him. He is no longer "playing like a kid out there." That kid looks old, tired and ready to go home. His facial expression after almost every play reads "I don't care if $24 million will buy me 7884 John Deere tractors. Just let me hand it off to Adrian Peterson and get me the hell out of here."

For someone who just wants this streak to end so he can retire and go away for good, I am waiting for Dec. 12 when the Giants go to Minnesota. They've already hurt five quarterbacks this year. I can only imagine what they'll do to a 42-year-old grandfather.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

America's Pastime: 1869-2010

America's Pastime, 141, beloved game run by William "Bud" Selig, passed away Monday night at Yankee Stadium. Although fighting to the very end, more people ended up watching the Jaguars and Titans on Monday Night Football than Game 3 of the ALCS. Six and a half million viewers saw Cliff Lee throw eight innings of shutout baseball, striking out 13. Over seven million people watched a 27-point blowout between two low market franchises (one of which can't even sell out their home games), both of whom had backup quarterbacks in by halftime. It was a long time coming. Pastime faced recent struggles with performance-enhancing drugs, threats of strikes and this. With homes in 28 cities, including two each in New York and Chicago, America's Pastime brought joy to millions of people for decades. It produced some of the country's most celebrated icons, including Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Willie Mays and Drew Henson. It also helped the country go through some of it's most difficult times -- the Great Depression, World War II, 9/11 and that year and a half when everyone was really into the Baha Men. Pastime leaves behind it's 30 organizations (well, actually it's 29 real organizations, plus the Pirates). Funeral services will be held on Sunday, October 24, at 1 p.m. at the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY. An evening service will be held Monday night. Now I don't know about everyone else, but I can't make it. That's during my football time, and no one interrupts me during my NFL time. Besides, the Steelers are actually on TV for once. And then it's Monday Night Football. Giants-Cowboys, in fact. And won't it be really fun to watch the Giants look completely disorganized, yet somehow look really good at the same time? And then there are the Cowboys! 1-4 baby! I'm not sure what's funnier: Jerry Jones giving Wade Phillips a vote of confidence, Tony Romo's "Grr.... does anyone really believe I'm mad?" face, or the prospect of bringing the excessive-celebration-penalty-to-wins ratio up to 3:1. What's that? I'm digressing? From what? Oh, right America's Pastime... Eh, no one cares anyways.

The game of baseball will go on as normal. However, "America's Pastime" has officially died. America's new pastime will now be exclusively on Sundays (and Monday nights. And starting in November, Thursday nights. And near Christmas, Saturday nights).

Friday, October 8, 2010

Time For Replays


Enough people ignore Major League Baseball when the NFL season starts. I am included in this group, especially this season seeing as my Red Sox have been out of the race for me since the injuries to Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. It seems that everything gets moved to the back burner once Week 1 gets underway.

By Friday baseball was again at the front of the news -- not for good reasons though. Roy Halladay's no-hitter, only the second in playoff history, should have been the story, even two days after the fact. But the top story was about how truly terrible a job umpires have done only two days into the postseason. Thursday alone all three games (Rangers vs. Rays, Braves vs. Giants and Yankees vs. Twins) were impacted by missed or non-calls. As a fan, why should I bother to watch games knowing the umpires can't do their jobs correctly, thus affecting the game? Instant replay clearly needs to be added, and the way to do it is by having a challenge rule similar to the NFL.

To recap, here's how all three games were affected by bad or missed calls yesterday. In the Rangers-Rays game, Texas was up 2-0 in the top of the fifth. They had two runners on and Michael Young at the plate. With the count at 2-2 Young checked his swing on the next pitch to make it a full count. The only problem is that it looked like he went around, and he should have been called out on strikes. Much to the chagrin of the Tampa Bay bench, though, first base umpire Jim Wolf said Young held up. Next pitch, he hits a three-run blast, and all of a sudden the Rays are down 5-0 instead of 2-0, and without manager Joe Maddon, who was ejected after Young hit the home run. Texas tacked on another run and won 6-0, going up 2-0 in the series.

In the Braves-Giants game, a 1-0 decision mind you, San Francisco catcher Buster Posey went to steal second base. Replays showed Posey was tagged at least six inches before he reached the base. Umpire Paul Emmel called him safe. Instead of two outs and no one on, it was one out with a runner on second. Two at-bats later, Cody Ross singled to drive home Posey, who would be the winning run.


(Little side note: You know why it's time for Bobby Cox to retire? Because after the missed call, he didn't come out to argue. Didn't even budge. After the game when questioned about it, he said "I haven't seen [the play].... From the dugout, you can't see anything and I didn't see a reaction from our infielders." Since when has the poor view from the dugout ever stopped Cox from going out, kicking dirt, swearing and getting tossed? The Bobby Cox we all know and love would have been out there before Emmel was finished making his "safe" signal. To make an excuse like that, you know it's time for the man to retire.)


And in the Yankees-Twins game, the game was tied 2-2 in the top of the seventh when Lance Berkman stepped to the plate. With Jorge Posada at first, Berkman took what appeared to be strike three on the inside corner. It was called a ball. Similarly to Young, Berkman sent the next pitch to the wall for a double, scoring Posada. Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire argued and was ejected. The Yanks added insurance and won 5-2 to take a 2-0 series lead going to the Bronx.

Of course, one could argue that all three teams that benefited from the poor calls would have won anyways. The Rays didn't score a run, so they would have lost anyways. Tim Lincecum pitched a gem, striking out 14 Atlanta batters and getting a shutout. The Yankees added runs after the Berkman double. Essentially it is the team's own faults for losing. If the Tampa Bay and Atlanta offenses got going the calls would not have mattered. If Chad Qualls and Carl Pavano made better pitches there would not have been an issue at all.


But that's not how sports fans think, especially when it involves their favorite teams. If I were to go out and tell a Rays fan (oh, right... bad example...). So like I was saying, if I were to go out and tell a Braves fan that Lincecum was untouchable and that the team would have probably lost anyways, I would be told quite the opposite. "No way, man! That call changed the momentum of the game! It sucked all the life out of the team!" That's just the way sports fans are. It is never the team's fault in cases like this. The loss is entirely on the umpire for that one bad call, among the hundreds of pitches in a major league game. And the case for instant replay will be made.

Which brings me to my point. Give the fans what they want. Face it, sports today are for entertainment. As one colleague told me last week, "They don't blast fireworks after every White Sox home run for the sake of it. They do it because it entertains the fans." That is what ultimately matters. Teams relocate if fans don't support them. Leagues shut down entirely. Obviously baseball is in no danger of folding, but it is certainly not the number one sport in America anymore. If the fans want instant replay, which is the best thing for the sport, expand it and give it to them.

Critics against the use of replay say that it adds too much time to the game. If I'm going to sit and watch a three to three-and-a-half hour game, what's an extra five minutes to make sure that a key call was made correct? Or better yet, to annul the added time, restrict either the number of times a manager can go to the mound, or how long the meetings can last. For a devoted fan, an extra five minutes (if that) per game is nothing. For the two biggest fan bases (Red Sox Nation and whatever the hell the Yankees call it now), their games are always four hours. At least. That little time added to make sure the umpires correct a call is well worth it, and wouldn't add to the ridiculousness of the game's length.

The only way the critics would be correct would be if replay were expanded for everything except balls and strikes, but there were no restrictions. There would be a good chance every play that was even remotely close would be reviewed. That would add to the time. Here's my proposal:

Give the managers two "challenges" per game, just like the NFL, that can be used for anything except balls and strikes. There would be no penalty if the play were overturned, but there would also be no reward for getting both challenges correct. If the game goes into extra innings, the managers would get one reward every four innings, with no rollover. That way the game is not in the hands of the umpires as much. Yeah, there would be flaws. On some plays, it will be hard to determine where runners on base should go. The best possible solution? If the play is very questionable and the call could go either way, make it so the ball is in play (i.e. the ball was trapped, not caught). Let the game run its course and see what happens. That way, if a manager chooses to challenge the play and the ball was foul, caught, etc, the runners merely return to the bases they held before the pitch. And if the call was correct to begin with, the umps aren't left pondering where runners should go, if they should be allowed to score, etc. It's not 100% foolproof, but it's better than what the system has now.

Some baseball "purists" will complain that expanding replay will ruin the game. Well, right now the purity of the game is being ruined by the umpires.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Rob's Decision

I've finally made my decision. A lot of stress went into it. After all, the two extremes of my NBA fandom were cruelly fused together  -- my love of Dwyane Wade, and my pure, complete hatred for LeBron James, together in Miami. The two tore at me. They were the two fat kids. I was the last Oreo (double-stuffed, of course). Which would succumb? The question of the summer was Could I root for the Heat this season, knowing LeBron is on the team?

After months and months of struggling, pondering, cerebrating, if you will, with this choice, I've come to my conclusion: I will root for the Miami Heat this season.

To recap, here was my dilemma:

Ever since his senior year at Marquette, I had been a Dwyane Wade fan. Quiet, lets his game do the talking, not a lot of people talking about him. He got drafted by the Heat, joined by my favorite player at the time, Shaquille O'Neal, and next thing you know, I'm a Heat fan. On the opposite end of the spectrum was James. The second coming was hyped to historic degrees ever since his junior year of high school. He was seemingly already better than Michael Jordan, was going to his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers, and he was going to win them a lot of championships. Spare me. He never got any support, gave a couple of lackluster playoff performances, and when he became a free agent, suddenly it is The Night of the Decision. He chose Miami, and made me angrier than the guy who got hit with Brandon Jacobs' helmet -- and couldn't keep it. How could I possibly root for a team with my second least favorite athlete?

Ultimately, however, I can't root against Dwyane Wade, a guy who donates 10% of his salary to a Chicago church, who's foundation promotes education, health and social skills to children, who bought a house for a family on Christmas Eve 2008, who donated $25,000 to keep a public library open in Illinois. Oh, and he can do this, too. His Wikipedia page has an entire section devoted to his charity work. LeBron? Well, he has one about his tattoos and public image.

So, yeah, I decided to be a Heat fan this year. But that doesn't mean the decision comes without a few provisions. Here is what I decided is going to happen. The Heat will roll to the #1-seed in the Eastern Conference, get home-court advantage, win 65 games, and all that jazz. LeBron will nearly average a triple-double (say, 28 points, 11 rebounds, 8 assists), and finish second in MVP voting behind Kevin Durant. Come the playoffs, though, in a seven-game battle with Boston, James will choke and Wade will come through with a 20-point fourth quarter performance. James will go on to struggle in the NBA Finals as Wade thrives in crunch time. Yeah, the King has a ring (finally) but he gets criticism not because he did it with help (that horse has already been beaten to death and repeatedly hit post-mortem), but because he was ineffective. That's the best I can do. After all, I can't wish for the team to lose, so that would be the second best option (that, or if LeBron got injured and babied it during the playoffs LaDainian Tomlinson-style, but I don't see it happening).

That's my wish, but obviously I don't expect it to come true. But more importantly than my far-fetched hopes and dreams, what will fans do if the team doesn't win a title within two years? To fans, the team appears to be so loaded that the only team with a remote chance to beat them is the Lakers. Realistically, add the Celtics to this list for at least this season, and if Dwight Howard improved his offense even a little bit the Magic could be darkhorse on the list since I don't think Chris Bosh is that good and is not a top-flight forward (seven seasons, one All-NBA Second Team appearance. Not impressed). This is the team everyone loves to hate, and anything short of an NBA title will be seen with the most criticism the sports world has seen since the 18-1 '08 Patriots. There is an enormous amount of pressure if the Larry O'Brien Trophy doesn't take its talents to South Beach multiple times within the next few seasons.

Conversely, if the Heat do go on a title run (consecutive titles, two in three years, per se), then people will be quick to forget all about The Decision, all about the criticism LeBron faced, all about the summer of 2010 in general. When the Yankees spent loads of money but went a decade without a World Series, people were quick to talk. But last year, after spending $423 million on Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, the critics went away for the most part because the team won a World Series. There is no reason to think an NBA title will be any different for Miami.

The team has two of the three best players in the league, plus an All-Star caliber forward, plus a decent bench full of players who will know and accept their roles. Will the team win a title this year? Who knows. If I were to put money on it, it wouldn't be a terrible bet. And I'm going to be rooting for some to some extent. But if they weren't to win, I wouldn't exactly be heartbroken.

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Tulo On a High

I guess 2007 was no fluke.

If the entire baseball season was played in September, the Colorado Rockies would have won each of the last three World Series and would be cruising to a fourth straight this year. Of course that isn't the case, but once again the boys from Denver are making a late push in the last month of the season. It may not be as historic as in 2007, when the team won 13 of its final 14 games, then won an epic one-game tiebreaker against San Diego to get into the playoffs, and won seven straight to get into the World Series. But still, on September 2nd the team was 69-64 and virtually out of the playoff race. Now 16 days and and a 10 game win streak later, the team is a mere game and a half out of first place. And the play of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has almost singlehandedly steered the team towards another playoff berth.

Tulowitzki has always been solid ever since he became a full-time player in 2007 (including last year when he hit 32 home runs and drove home 92 runs). But I don't think anyone saw this coming, especially from a shortstop, which traditionally is not a power-hitter's position. Going into September Tulowitzki had 12 home runs and 55 runs batted in, for him an off season hampered by injuries (he's missed 39 games this year). What he has done this month is historic. He has 14 home runs (that's right, in 17 September games he has more than doubled his home run total) and has driven home 33 runs. It is very likely that he will shatter Ralph Kiner's National League record of 16 home runs in September. But looking further into history, he is only six home runs away from tying Sammy Sosa's major league record 20 home runs in a month, which came in June 1998. To break it he would need seven home runs in 11 games. Very possible. The record for most RBIs in a month is a lot less likely to be broken. Currently Joe DiMaggio holds that record with 53 back in August 1939. It is certainly doable with the way Tulo has played, but I think the Yankee Clipper's mark will stay. But could you imagine if he broke both records? It could very well be the greatest month any single player ever had in one month in history. Right now it is as good as Alex Rodriguez's April 2007, but that was in the opening month of the season. Big whoop. Tulowitzki's is in the middle of a playoff race, where once again the Rockies came out of nowhere and are threatening to shock the NL West and go to the playoffs. When Kiner hit 16 homers in September 1949, the Pirates began the month 21.5 games out of first and ended it 26 games back. Babe Ruth hit 17 home runs and drove in 43 runs in September 1927, but that was on the greatest team in baseball history. By the time August rolled around the team already had an 18-game lead. He could have struck out every at-bat the entire month and it would not have made any difference. Tulowitzki's performance is making a huge difference for the team, and he and Carlos Gonzalez are leading this team into the playoffs. There is still a lot of work to be done, but the Padres are struggling and the Giants can't put a winning streak together. All the signs point to a Rockies playoff berth.

Colorado has a game left against Los Angeles, then travels to Arizona, hosts a three-game set with the Giants that will probably knock one team out of playoff contention, another series with the Dodgers and a four-game set in St. Louis. Of those, the series with San Francisco and St. Louis could mean a playoff spot is at stake for both teams. If I'm Bruce Bochy or Tony LaRussa, I would absolutely, under no circumstances, pitch to Tulowitzki right now. Make Todd Helton, who bats behind Tulo, do something at the plate. I love Helton and think he is one of the most underrated players of the 2000s, but now is not the time to get nostalgic. Helton is 37, has hit .260, hit six home runs and driven in 32 this year. He is not the same player who hit .372, 43 HRs, 147 RBIs, and compiling 216 hits back in 2000. He is a guy with a bad back who has hit .182 this month. It doesn't seem logical to risk throwing to someone on a historic streak like Tulowitzki when there is an aging star whom the team should have replaced a year ago.

In terms of production and meaning, what Tulowitzki could potentially do is something we have never seen before. The question is can the Rockies continue their hot streak, and will teams keep pitching to him?

(NOTE: Stats provided by ESPN.com, baseball-reference.com, baseball-almanac.com and Fanhouse.tv.com)

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

My Super, Extra Long NFL Prediction Special

I don't know why I put myself through this. Because my baseball predictions from March are going so well (haha) I might as well show off my amazing credibility by making more predictions for the upcoming football season. However, as opposed to the baseball post, where there were random guesses as to what would happen, this will be a little more structured, as I'll go team by team and make a prediction of some sort for each. And guess what? All of them will come true, because I said they would! At the end of the season I'll go back and see how I did.

Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals will not finish above .500 for the season. Kurt Warner was a great comeback story, he had a heck of an arm, and he had Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to catch passes. Well, Warner retired, Matt Leinart inexplicably lost his starting job to Derek Anderson and got himself released, and Boldin bolted for Baltimore (though Early Doucet should fill his spot quite nicely). But with such a decline at the quarterback position, everyone is affected. Fitzgerald hasn't had nearly the success without Warner at the helm. The running game was 28th in the league, and will need to improve greatly. The defense was below average against the pass and one of the worst against the run (and they actually got worse defensively with the loss of Antrel Rolle). Even with the league's easiest schedule, Arizona won't be making a third consecutive post-season trip. There are too many questions in too many positions.

Atlanta Falcons: The team will win 5 of their last 6 games, but miss the playoffs. I like the Falcons this year. Matt Ryan will rebound after an inexplicable sophomore slump. Michael Turner's ankle is back to 100% and he will easily get 1200 yards and score 12-15 times. Roddy White is quietly a very good receiver. Their defense has some issues, and will give up a lot of yards through the air, but even that isn't what bothers me. It's their schedule. Based on last year's records, Atlanta has the 20th hardest schedule. But looking at it, the first half of the year is brutal. They could easily begin the season 1-3 (lose at Pittsburgh, beat Arizona, lose at New Orleans, and to San Francisco). The two weeks going into the bye they have to travel to Philly, which is a brutal environment to play in, and host defending AFC North champion Cincinnati. They also play Baltimore and Green Bay. Before they get to Week 13 they could easily have 7 losses. After Green Bay, the team will beat up on Tampa Bay, Carolina, Seattle, the New Orleans backups, and Carolina again and make a late push for a wild-card berth, but I don't think the defense is good enough to overcome the ridiculous first half of the schedule.

Baltimore Ravens: Ladies and gentlemen, your AFC champions. I hate to say it, but the Ravens have the potential to be scary good. Joe Flacco is prepped to have a breakout year, he now has Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmandzadeh to throw to along with Mark Clayton, Todd Heap, and Ray Rice. Plus, he's young but has playoff experience already. I love that in him. Rice is perhaps the most complete back in football, with the ability to run, catch, and block. Le'Ron McClain is a beast of a fullback, and Willis McGahee is a solid backup. And do I need to mention the defense? Ray Lewis may not be in his 20s anymore, but he's still the best. Terrell Suggs has always been one of the most underrated linebackers in football. Haloti Ngata is a force to be reckoned with on the defensive line. Tom Zbikowski came on strong late last year, and I like his play-making ability as well as his ability to hit hard. The only issue will be the presence of Ed Reed, who will miss at least the first six weeks of the season with a hip injury. If he can come back, his ball-hawking will be the difference between a great defense and the best defense in the AFC (with the only possible exception being the Jets). As a Pittsburgh fan, Baltimore terrifies me this year.

Buffalo Bills: CJ Spiller will be the lone bright spot. Simply put, the Bills aren't very good. Lee Evans has been the best wide receiver for what seems like ages now, what with Terrell Owens not working out like Buffalo had hoped. And this just in: Lee Evans is talented, but if he is your best receiver since Eric Moulds, the team has issues. Trent Edwards is the one throwing the ball. He is a mediocre quarterback at best. The defense gave up the 2nd fewest passing yards last season, but that's probably because they were 30th in rush defense, so everybody shoved the ball down their throats. Even with Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, the team drafted the electric Spiller out of Clemson. A good choice indeed. He can bring a firepower the offense has missed greatly for most of the last decade. If nothing more, he will bring some attention to Buffalo. My pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, as he gains 900 yards and scores 6 times.

Carolina Panthers: Matt Moore will lead the charge and challenge for a wild-card berth. Last year Jake Delhomme was a wreck, throwing 18 interceptions to just 8 touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 59.4. The team went 4-7. In comes Matt Moore, who throws 8 TDs and just 1 INT and the team finishes the year 4-1. And not only that, but they beat NFC runner-up Minnesota and obliterated a Giants team vying for a wild-card spot (they also beat New Orleans, but most of the starter didn't play). The team still has DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, both of whom eclipsed 1000 yards rushing, and a defense that was 4th-best against the pass. If they can improve the run defense, they are definitely a team who can contend for a wild-card spot. Seeing as the explosive Saints are in their division, however, they are probably a year away from contending in the divison.

Chicago Bears: The team will not win five games. Why is everyone still so up-in-arms over Jay Cutler? In his three full years as a starter his interceptions have gone up (from 14 to 18 to 26 last year), his yards per reception and quarterback rating have gone down, and his record as a starter is 24-29. Yet he is still projected to be a Top-10 fantasy quarterback, and people are raving that new offensive coordinator Mike Martz and his offensive genius will turn Cutler's performance around. Because Martz's recent coaching jobs were so good that Cutler just has to be fantastic! Since, you know, when he was the Lions' coordinator in '06 and '07 the team threw more interceptions (44) than touchdowns (40), and in San Francisco in '08 JT O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill blew the league away. The rushing attack is terrible (29th last year, no major changes), there's not really anyone for Cutler to throw to (Devin Hester and Johnny Knox are the top two receivers. Yikes), and the defense has no playmakers. Brian Urlacher is old and has a multitude of injuries, and Julius Peppers is just an overpaid defensive end. I say they split with Detroit, beat the Seahawks at home, and take down the Bills in Buffalo to finish 3-13. (Oh, and since I couldn't fit him in anywhere, I want to mention Devin Aromashodu. Not because he will have a great year or anything. I just love saying his name)

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals won't repeat as AFC North champions. Last year the Bengals were blessed by someone up above, which is pretty impressive considering they have Chad Ochocinco on their team. All the pieces fell into place perfectly. They had the 10th weakest schedule in the league. The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers (of course I had to add the title) had the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL yet lost Troy Polamalu for much of the season. They somehow managed to lose to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns. The Ravens lost Ed Reed for the majority of the season as well. Both defenses were good, but not great as a result of those losses. This year Polamalu is back, so I expect the Steelers' defense to look a lot more like their 2008 form. Plus the Bengals have the 4th toughest schedule this year, which includes traveling to New England, New York to face the Jets, and Indy, and hosting New Orleans. Chad Ochocinco is not a consistent number-one receiver anymore, and neither is Terrell Owens. That won't help an offense that was 26th in passing yards in '09. In fact, the egos might clash. They will be a wild-card contender, but I think asking for another division title is a bit much.

Cleveland Browns: Colt McCoy will start the final five games of the season. Someone in Cleveland must have been thinking LeBron James was going to stay, because the Browns gained absolutely zero star power this off-season. Instead, they handed Jake Delhomme $7 million to throw 18 more interceptions. The team is easily one of the worst in football. They didn't have a 1000 yard running back or receiver. Delhomme has not been good in over two years (5 INTs in one playoff game, anyone?). The only positive thing I can say is that when the Browns play host to the Panthers in Week 12, Delhomme will finally complete some of his passes to a Panthers player. This pre-season McCoy didn't impress much. Sure, he completed 71% of his passes, but didn't have a completion over 17 yards and was sacked 6 times. He didn't throw a touchdown pass. But, sadly, that might still be enough to get a starting nod late in the season when Delhomme nears the 20-interception mark and the team is out of playoff contention. If he is the future of the franchise, he's got to get his feet wet eventually. Might as well be later this year.

Dallas Cowboys: NFC East champs, get to the Divisional Round, that's it though. The Cowboys went 11-5 last year, with an explosive offense and a defense whose weakness was in the secondary. Tony Romo is coming off a career year (4483 yards, 26 TDs), but I question the receiving corps a little bit. Miles Austin is the only proven one, but remember that he's only started 9 games in his career. Roy E. Williams is overpaid and overrated, and the only reason he is going to start Week 1 is because first round pick Dez Bryant hurt his ankle. Eventually Bryant will take over, and people are already calling him the next big thing. I think he'll be very good, but it will take him some time to get used to the NFL. He hasn't played a game in over a year because of his suspension for lying to NCAA officials. Now he has to work his way back from an injury while learning a new system. I am being nit-picky here, though, because the running game is dynamic, Jason Witten is a fantastic pass catcher as well as blocker, and DeMarcus Ware leads the fairly solid defense. But I don't think they are better than Green Bay or Minnesota. Fortunately we'll get to compare the teams because Dallas is forced to travel to both places over the span of the year. If they go 11-5 again with the league's 2nd toughest schedule, I'd be impressed.

Denver Broncos: Kyle Orton will prove he's worth the $9 million extension he signed. All signs point towards Orton playing all of this year, then the team handing the reigns to either Brady Quinn or Tim Tebow. But the Broncos extended Orton's contract anyways, giving him an extra year worth $9 million through 2011. Now, to me getting Brady Quinn in a trade and then drafting Tebow made absolutely no sense. I can't see why Josh McDaniels is unhappy with 3800 yards and 21 TDs. He threw 12 picks, but 6 of them came in two games (3 each versus Pittsburgh and Kansas City). His quarterback rating over the final four games, when the team collapsed completely and failed to make the playoffs after a 6-0 start, 85.9, or right around his QB rating for the season. He isn't on the same level as, say, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, but neither Quinn or Tebow will ever be elite field generals either. As much as I love Tebow, I don't think he'll ever be more than an average quarterback in the NFL. Orton is better than both of the other options, and he'll prove it with 3500 yards and 25 touchdowns this year. It's a shame the loss of Elvis Dumervil will mean the defense is terrible, and the team could finish anywhere from second to last in the division.

Detroit Lions: The team might actually look like a football team (gasp!) The Matt Millen era is disappearing more and more each day, and the team might actually not be terribly, horribly atrocious. Don't get me wrong, they are not a playoff team by any stretch of the imagination, especially with two of the four best teams in the NFC (Green Bay and Minnesota) in their division.
However, the organization is taking the right steps. Matthew Stafford is in his second year behind center, and although he made rookie mistakes (20 INTs) his first year, he also showed flashes of potential. He has a big target in Calvin Johnson. Megatron had a bad year in '09, but with Nate Burleson there to distract DBs I think he'll have 1200 yards and 8-10 touchdowns once again (at least he better, considering he's my most reliable fantasy receiver compared to the hit-or-miss Percy Harvin and Mike Wallace). Rookie Jahvid Best can be electric. Defensively #2 overall draft pick Ndamukong Suh is already the target of double-teams on the offensive line, he decapitated Jake Delhomme in a pre-season game, and looks very much like he could dominate the league for the next decade. With new additions Corey Williams and Kyle Vanden Bosch, the defensive line could be really good. Expect five to six wins for the upbeat Lions this season.

Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl champions. Last year the Packers might have been one of the four best teams in the NFC, but lost in overtime to the Cardinals in the Wild Card round of the playoffs (after storming back from 21 down in the 3rd to force OT). Aaron Rodgers, breakout star from a year ago, played magnificently in the second half of that game, and now has at least a little playoff experience under his belt. He is the trendy pick my many to win the league MVP award. He has weapons around him in Greg Jennings, Donald Driver (who at 35 can still catch with the best of them), Jermichael Finley, and the most under-appreciated back in football, Ryan Grant. The offense can put up points in a hurry via air or ground, and although they gave up 51 points in the playoff loss in Arizona, have plenty of playmakers defensively. BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, and AJ Hawk lead the front seven that love to put pressure on quarterbacks. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson is at cornerback, and safety Nick Collins has 13 interceptions the past two years. For what it's worth, the team had a great pre-season. Can they carry it all the way to Dallas for Super Bowl XLV?

Houston Texans: Andre Johnson will finally get the title he deserves: Best receiver in the league. Three of the last four years Johnson has surpassed 100 receptions, with 2007 being the exception only because he missed seven games due to injury. Each of the last two years he has led the league in yards by wide margins (144 in '08 and 221 last year). He is constantly double teamed, seeing as Kevin Walter does not strike fear in defenses, yet is big enough (6-3, 228 lbs) and fast enough to cut through secondaries everywhere. Unfortunately, if you don't play fantasy football, chances are you didn't realize how dominant Johnson has been recently (he does play in Houston after all...). But this year will be different. He will finally be recognized as the hands-down best receiver the NFL has to offer. 1500 more yards will be what it takes, but he's good for it.

Indianapolis Colts: Another division title, 13 more wins, home-field advantage, etc... My goal was to make a not-obvious prediction, or at least one that would generate talk amongst the thousands of readers I have. But it's incredibly hard to think of something for a team that has been to the playoffs 10 of the last 11 years, won 6 of the last 7 AFC South titles, had 8 consecutive 10-win seasons (including 7 straight seasons of 12+ wins), advanced to at least the Divisional Round of the playoffs in 6 of 7 years, and won a Super Bowl. The Colts have done all of this, still have Peyton Manning, the best quarterback of this generation, and play in a weak division (are 15-1all-time against Houston, can't be stopped by Tennessee, and then the laughingstock Jaguars). There's not much more that can be predicted. There won't be a drop-off in wins. I don't think they are going to win the Super Bowl. I'll take the easy route here and just say the following: 13-3 record, first-round bye, beat the 5th-seeded Steelers in the Divisional Round, then lose to Baltimore in the Conference Title Game. (To see my entire playoff prediction, see here.)

Jacksonville Jaguars: David Garrard is in his last season as the starter. This team is going to struggle mightily. Garrard basically has Mike Sims-Walker to throw to and Maurice Jones-Drew to hand off to, and that's it. The defense can't stop the pass, and is mediocre at stopping the run. Chris Johnson will run freely, and Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub will feast on the secondary. Those are six losses, and that's even before you include losing to three of the four NFC East teams, San Diego, Kansas City, and possibly Oakland. Garrard isn't a terrible quarterback. His quarterback rating in '06, '08 and '09 were around the league average, and in '07 it was among the best in the AFC. He has surpassed 3500 yards each of the last two seasons. He's a solid quarterback. But in a division with Manning and Schaub, to keep up and hope for a playoff spot, the team needs a franchise quarterback. The best hope for the Jags is that they can finish poorly enough to have the worst or 2nd-worst record among them, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Seattle. That way they can get Jake Locker (unlikely though... they aren't bad enough to get the #1 pick) or Florida State's Christian Ponder. Because if they don't get either of those two, the quarterback position is weak in this year's draft class, and they will be stuck in the AFC South basement for a while otherwise.

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs will finish 2nd in the AFC West. This could easily happen. This could just easily come back to haunt me. With Charlie Weis as Matt Cassel's offensive coordinator once again, the third year starter knows most of the offense from his days in New England (though he rarely got to run it in a real-game scenario). That comfort should improve the passing attack that was 25th in the league last year. Then there's the one-two combo of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in the backfield. Charles broke out the last four games of '09, running for 658 yards over that stretch, including a 259-yard effort in the season finale at Denver that officially completed the Broncos' epic collapse. His complement is Thomas Jones, who ran for 1400 yards himself in New York. He's expected to be a second wind in the running game, but expect him to have a bigger impact than other aging backs will have (like, per se, LaDainian Tomlinson in New York). That has the potential to be a Top-5 running game. The defense was a mess, especially against the run (31st in the league). Safety Eric Berry is drawing comparisons to Troy Polamalu already, so the passing defense should improve significantly if that is the case. If they can score enough, they could have a good year. Not a playoff-type year, but a step up from 4-12.

Miami Dolphins: The Wildcat will be no more after this season. Remember that joyous late September afternoon two years ago in Foxboro? When Chad Pennington ran to the sideline and lined up as a receiver? When Ronnie Brown took the snaps directly and ran circles around the Patriots' defense, thus ending the team's 21-game winning streak with a 31-13 beatdown? I do too -- quite vividly actually -- and that's when the wildcat became the fad in the NFL. Last year the Eagles tried it with Michael Vick, and before Pat White was cut by Miami this past week, he ran the offense some of the time for the Fins. But last year coordinators began figuring the formation out. Half of the battle for opposing teams is figuring out whether the person taking the snap is going to run or pass. The Dolphins were just 2-for-11 in the passing department in '09, essentially cutting the offense's effectiveness in half. And with Ronnie Brown having a slew of injuries in the past, Ricky Williams being 33, and Pat White cut, who is going to want to run the offense on a consistent basis? Chad Henne came on strong late in the year at QB, and I think the wildcat will be overlooked, in favor of a more prolific passing attack now that Brandon Marshall is there to throw at.

Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson will fumble fewer than five times. This one might be asking for too much. Peterson is one of the league's best backs, but his downfall has been his inability to hold onto the football. In three seasons he has put the ball on the turf 19 times. That doesn't include the two fumbles in the NFC Championship Game. Typically, the general belief is "Once a fumbler, always a fumbler", with the only exception being Tiki Barber. However most of Peterson's fumbles have been when he's fought for extra yards. If he can learn when to go down, he will cut down on the fumbles. Hopefully Brett Favre gets that through his head.

New England Patriots: Wes Welker will have 120 catches. This guy has got to be a freak of nature. Nine months after tearing his ACL and MCL he was back on the field, participating in contact drills, running routes with his typical precision, and looking confident in his cuts. That just doesn't happen. But for someone who works as hard as Welker, I guess I shouldn't be that surprised. Each of the last three seasons he has surpassed 110 catches and 1100 yards. Last year was his best, catching 123 balls and gaining over 1300 yards in only fourteen games. Most people coming back from re-constructive knee surgery need a year to fully return to peak status (even Golden Boy Tom Brady had an "off" year, at least for him), especially at receiver, a position at which fear of making sharp cuts is killer. But the knee will be fine, and Welker will be back to tip-top form in no time and Bill Belichick should have nothing to worry about there. Now if only he could say the same thing about his defense...

New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees will snap the Madden curse. Daunte Culpepper threw 23 interceptions, then blew out his knees and was never the same player. Marshall Faulk never had another 1000 yard season. Michael Vick broke his fibula in the pre-season. Ray Lewis did not record an interception for the first time, then broke his wrist in Week 15. Donovan McNabb suffered a sports hernia. Shaun Alexander broke his foot and never returned to form. Brett Favre threw 22 picks. Troy Polamalu missed most of the year with a knee injury suffered in Week 1. What do all of these random tid-bits have in common? Each player was on the cover of the most recent Madden game at the time. Aren't you pumped to be on the cover this year Drew!? Brees, though, will be the black sheep of this group. With all of the rules against hitting quarterbacks now, and Brees' durability (two missed starts the last seven seasons, one of which was Sean Payton's decision to rest the starters in Week 17 last year), he will play the whole season, he will throw for 4200 yards and 30 TDs, and he will be in the MVP race. The Saints will repeat as division champs, lose at Lambeau in the conference title game, and Who Dat Nation will be happy.

New York Giants: Brandon Jacobs will be ineffective once again, and the team will release him. After back-to-back 1000 yard seasons in 2007 and 2008, the monster Jacobs had an abysmal 2009 campaign, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and scoring only 5 times en route to 835 yards. This came after he signed a 4-year/$25 million contract extension last February. And after learning that he officially lost his starting job to Ahmad Bradshaw, Jacobs' attitude does not bode for a good year. He told Jill Seward of NESN that it is "hard to stay positive" and blamed the culture of the league for his demotion. I guess seeing your yards per carry decrease by a yard and touchdowns decrease by ten isn't reason enough for a demotion. It's all the league's fault. Seward wrote, "But apparently, sharing the spotlight wasn't on Jacobs' agenda this season." With that kind of attitude, I see no reason why his numbers should improve.

New York Jets: Mark Sanchez will cost the team 1-2 wins, and possibly a Super Bowl. With Darrelle Revis back, the Jets strengthened their case for best defense in the league. Revis Island at one corner, Antonio Cromartie at the other, Bart Scott anchoring the linebackers, and Kris Jenkins plugging up the middle, it's going to be very hard for teams to score. Defense certainly won't be an issue for Gang Green. Offensively, I don't think substituting shut-up-and-run Thomas Jones for diva LaDainian Tomlinson was a good idea, but Shonn Greene will have a breakout year anyways, so the running game will be fine, too. It is Sanchez I'm worried about. There's something about him that I just don't feel comfortable with. He had a solid rookie year, and now has more weapons around him. But Braylon Edwards gets a case of the dropsies often, Santonio Holmes is suspended to start the year, and Nate Washington was cut. He was a manage-the-game type quarterback, which worked seeing as the team went to the AFC Title Game, but to get over the hump and win the Super Bowl, teams need a quarterback to lead them in today's pass-happy league. Look at the last decade of Super Bowl champions. Only the '01 Ravens won with an average quarterback (Trent Dilfer). Since, every team has had a top-flight QB under center. The good news is his breakout game was in the playoffs against Indy (17-for-30, 257 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), but it was only the third time he surpassed 250 yards in a single game. He didn't lead any comeback drives, either. All of this leads me to believe that the Jets might be a year away, because Sanchez isn't ready to be an elite quarterback.

Oakland Raiders: Jason Campbell will carry this team to the 6-win mark. With JaMarcus Russell finally gone, replaced by the competent-but-not-flashy Campbell, the team is beginning to go in the right direction. Michael Bush and Darren McFadden are a decent one-two punch at running back. Zach Miller is one of the better tight ends in the league. The receivers are not very good, which will hold back the capabilities of the offense, but it will be an improvement over last year. Defensively Richard Seymour and Rolando McClain lead the front seven, Nnamdi Asomugha is the league's second-best shutdown corner behind Darrelle Revis, plus my boy Tyvon Branch is consistent at safety, totaling 124 tackles last year. They aren't good, but they aren't terrible, either. 6 wins is very doable with a somewhat fair schedule.

Philadelphia Eagles: Trading Donovan McNabb will come back to haunt the Eagles. The team trading franchise quarterback McNabb to "hated division rival" Washington in the off-season made me mad because it furthered my theory that there is no true rivalry in sports anymore. But in the seemingly up-for-grabs NFC East, it could very well be Philly who will regret trading the cornerstone of their franchise within the division. Now they have a first-year starter in Kevin Kolb going up against NFL defenses plus the feisty Philadelphia sports fans, a running back in LeSean McCoy who basically has to be the entire rushing attack, and two deep threat receivers (DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin) who could be hit-or-miss. The defense is expected to be one of the league's best, but looking at the depth chart nothing looks that special about it. Trent Cole will be a force at defensive end and Asante Samuel has play-making ability, but other than that no real threat appears to be there. Besides, McNabb knows the defense, including how to beat them. Two Redskins victories right there. The team also hasn't won in Dallas since 2007, and were beat down there twice in consecutive weeks (a 24-0 whopping in Week 17 then an equally as bad 34-14 playoff loss), so that's another loss. The secondary is vulnerable to the pass, and they have to face Green Bay, Indy, Houston, and Minnesota. At least two losses there. With the veteran McNabb, I give the team a shot in all of those games. But with the untested Kolb, I'm not so sure.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The defense will return to its 2008 form. The 2008 defense was one of the best ever. They led every major statistical category except rushing yards allowed, which they were 2nd. That defense anchored the team that would go on to win the Super Bowl. The 2009 squad looked the same except for Larry Foote was replaced by Lawrence Timmons. But injuries to Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith decimated the team, as the defense was shaky against the pass and could not hold 4th quarter leads. This year both players are back. Smith is quiet, but very consistent and is another body that needs to be accounted for, freeing up James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. Polamalu is the most indispensable player undoubtedly, as his play-making abilities allow for the corners to take more risks. Barring another injury to the knee, the presence of #43 will make the Pittsburgh D look a lot more intimidating, which is good considering they'll be without Ben Roethlisberger for the first four games.

San Diego Chargers: The probable loss of Vincent Jackson will hurt the Bolts. Perhaps the breakout receiver from last year was Vincent Jackson. Unfortunately for San Diego, his contract didn't represent that, and he says he is willing to hold out for ten weeks to get a new one. A trade seems inevitable at this point. But his loss is huge for a team that really didn't have a whole lot of other options at the wide-out position. He was their biggest, fastest choice, and became one of the league's best deep threats. Antonio Gates will probably have double teams on him at all times now, as teams will make Phillip Rivers throw to Malcom Floyd and Patrick Crayton, both of whom are fairly solid, neither of whom are #1-type guys. And to ask rookie Ryan Mathews to come in and fix the league's least productive rushing attack from a year ago is a bit much. The division is weak enough to win still, but come playoff time against the Baltimores, New Yorks, or Pittsburghs, a deep threat is pivotal for a team that struggles to run.

San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Willis surpasses Ray Lewis as the best middle linebacker in football. For the past decade and a half Ray Lewis has been the middle linebacker in football. Consistently getting 130+ tackles a year, he's been the standard by which all of his peers of this generation are judged. But at 35 one has to think Lewis has to slow down eventually, and he'll have to pass the torch to someone. Enter Willis. He has been in the league for three years, and here are his tackle totals: 174 in 2007, 141 in 2008, and 152 in 2009. He and Lewis are very similar. He doesn't quite have the pass coverage skills Lewis does, but he forces more fumbles and his instincts are just as good. Both are 6'1" and around 245 lbs. There are enough similarities between the two that when Lewis retires, Willis will be the new standard. Why hasn't his name been out there more if he's so good? Well he plays in San Francisco, and the only thing they've done since drafting Willis is fail to live up to high expectations. This year is different, though. Mike Singletary is a good coach (and was a Hall of Fame linebacker himself, mind you), the NFC West is easily the worst division in football, and the 49ers should pretty much win the division by default, even if they finish 9-7 or 8-8. Willis will put up the same numbers he has been, only this year they will be noticed.

Seattle Seahawks: They will finish in the Top-10 in run defense. There are a few reasons I think this. For one, their pass defense is so awful that teams will air it out all game long, and running the ball will not be necessary. But secondly, with the return of Lofa Tatupu (who missed eleven games last year with a torn pectoral muscle), the linebackers are fairly solid. Tatupu is consistently a 100-tackle guy who is very fast, and will plug up holes quickly. Last year the only bright spot was the fact that the team was 11th-best at stopping the run. They got worse from last year to this year, but they will make the leap into the top-10 in something.

St. Louis Rams: The team will improve from their 1-15 record. They will go 2-14.Did you know the Rams can say they beat the Patriots and Ravens this year? I mean, sure, it was in the pre-season, but sadly that might be the highlight of this team's season. Call me crazy but I highly doubt Sam Bradford, who hasn't played a full-fledged football game in 20 months, will magically make all the Rams' woes go away. This is a team that was 28th in passing, 20th in running, 25th against the pass, and 27th against the run. They have all sorts of problems on both sides of the ball. Steven Jackson is their only other talent, but he's averaged 335 touches since 2005, and he has had a history of back problems, including surgery this past off-season. They'll beat Tampa Bay in Week 7 and Kansas City in Week 15, but that's it.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kellen Winslow will have 90 receptions and 1200 yards receiving. I don't think Winslow is one of the top ten tight ends in the NFL. This prediction was basically made because he's the only one with prior success catching the football, and quarterback Josh Freeman will quickly realize that with Antonio Bryant gone for good, Winslow is his most reliable target (yes offense to Mike Williams). Winslow's 77 receptions were 38 more than the next closest player on the team (Bryant), and his 127 targets were 41 more than anyone else. Expect a career year not because Winslow is as good as his dad, or because he is an elite tight end. It's just that Tampa is so bad offensively that they literally have no other options.

Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson will not surpass 1500 yards. Yeah, last year Johnson ran for over 2000 yards and set a single-season record for yards from scrimmage. But that won't happen again for sure. Of the five running backs to rush for over 2000 yards before him, only one (Barry Sanders in 1998) managed to surpass even 1400 yards the following year. Furthermore, of those five backs, only Terrell Davis had more touches (417) than Johnson had last year (408), and the next year was the beginning of the end for Davis, as he played in only four games. Football is a vicious sport, and getting hit as much as much as Johnson was last year takes a whole lot out of the body. Johnson is only 24, so his body is still sprightly and youthful, but last year's production will make him an obvious target to teams. And as history has shown, don't expect another record-setting season.

Washington Redskins: The running game will finish 29th or worse. If this were 2005 the Redskins would easily be favored to win the NFC East. Donovan McNabb at quarterback. Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson in the backfield. Santana Moss and Joey Galloway at wide-out. Yikes. Unfortunately, it's 2010, and aside from McNabb, all of these players are washed up. Especially Portis and Johnson. After finishing just shy of 1500 yards two seasons ago, Portis missed half of last season, scoring only once en route to 494 yards. At 29, he's just about over the hill. Johnson rushed for almost 1800 yards in 2005, but has yet to play a full season since, nor has he surpassed 900 yards in a season. Last year he split time with Kansas City and Cincinnati and rushed for a mere 581 yards. I can't see this tandem being good, although with Mike Shanahan as their head coach they at least have a chance.

(NOTE: Stats from ESPN.com, NFL.com, and pro-football-reference.com)