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Friday, December 3, 2010

Stop With the BCS BS

People seriously need to stop complaining about the BCS. This is the 13th year of its existence, and every year there has been an issue with it. There have been snubs (i.e. 11-1 Texas Tech in 2008), BCS-busters who have been discriminated against (Boise State in '06 and '09) and questionable BCS representatives. Countless solutions have been proposed: a playoff format, a plus-one system, basically anything not based off a computer. This year the problem has been with the Big East, whose members have -- to say the least -- underperformed a bit. Still, come Saturday either unranked UConn (7-4) or #24 West Virginia (7-3) will most likely accept a bid to the Fiesta or Orange Bowl. Meanwhile, it looks like #8 Michigan State, who finished 11-1, will be left out of the BCS bowl picture for being the third-lowest ranked Big Ten team (#5 Wisconsin will represent the conference as champions and #6 Ohio State will get an at-large bid... no more than two teams from the same conference can be in a BCS game). But to all the whiners out there, I have only one thing to say.

Stop it. Because no matter how much you complain, no matter how big a temper-tantrum you throw, nothing will be done.

Is anyone from the Big East deserving of a BCS bid? No. I'm not stupid. The conference has three wins against BCS opponents in 14 tries: West Virginia's massacre of 8-4 Maryland, UConn's trampling of SEC bottom-feeder Vanderbilt, and South Florida's overtime squeaker against underachieving Miami (FL). The Mountaineers needed a miracle comeback and overtime to beat in-state rival Marshall (5-7). Rutgers needed three quarters to get going against FCS opponent Norfolk State. And in what were supposed to be high-profile match-ups, Oklahoma edged two-time defending champion Cincinnati and Miami (FL) annihilated Pittsburgh, who was picked to win the league, 31-3. Pitt, who is currently 6-5, also lost their home opener to Utah. Until this week, when the BCS ranked West Virginia at #24, no Big East team had made an appearance in the rankings in five weeks. Currently no team is ranked in either the AP or Coaches' Poll, and none have since October 23. Basically, the conference has sucked.

Still, though, this is not the first time a three- or four-loss team would receive an automatic BCS bid. This is just the most scrutinized occurrence. In fact, it has happened three times:

  • In 2002 Florida State finished the regular season 9-4. They lost to #1 Miami (FL) and #6 Notre Dame, but also lost to Louisville, who would finish 7-5, and unranked NC State. They went to the Sugar Bowl and lost to Georgia by 13.
  • The Seminoles faced the same situation in 2005, when they finished 8-4, losing to Virginia, NC State, Clemson and Florida (the latter three in consecutive weeks). The Gators were the only team ranked out of those four. They lost to Penn State in the Orange Bowl in triple overtime.
  • In 2008 Virginia Tech opened the season with a loss to East Carolina (unranked) to fall from #15 to unranked, then re-entered for two weeks before losing to Boston College (unranked) and #24 Florida State in back-to-back weeks, and then lost to a 7-6 Miami (FL) team. They were not ranked, but won the conference and beat Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl.
Most say West Virginia would do best in a BCS game. And by best I mean people believe they'll lose by the least amount. Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, though, their destiny in the hands of the Huskies. UConn started 3-4, ending that start with an uninspired 26-0 blowout at the hands of Louisville. But since then the team has won four straight, including wins over West Virginia and Pitt in consecutive weeks. If they win at South Florida -- another streaking team coming off a program-defining win against Miami -- they get the automatic bid. If they lose and West Virginia beats Rutgers (which will happen... the Scarlet Knights have completely collapsed in recent weeks), then the Mountaineers get the bid. If both teams lose and Pitt beats Cincinnati, then the Panthers, at 7-5, go bowling BCS style. If all three teams lose and there is a five-way tie in the conference between UConn, Pitt, West Virginia, South Florida and Syracuse, then it turns into a five-team mini-conference, and Connecticut would win based off their 3-1 record against the other four teams. Wouldn't life be so much easier if the Huskies won Saturday?

The main argument against the Big East, but specifically the Huskies and Mountaineers, is that they aren't as deserving as, say, Michigan State, LSU, Missouri, Boise State and Nebraska/Oklahoma (whichever loses in the Big 12 title game), all of whom will most likely not get an invitation to a BCS game. Michigan State is the victim of an unfortunate rule. I can't really argue this. But for all the other teams, they have no one to blame but themselves for their participation in lower-tiered bowls because they all broke (or will break) the unwritten rule of college football: don't lose after Halloween. If LSU beat Arkansas last week, they would be in. If Missouri didn't lose in consecutive weeks to Oklahoma and Texas Tech (the latter of which came on November 6), they would be in the Big 12 title game. If Boise State makes a few more plays and beats Nevada, they're in. (Note: This game was not lost entirely on the two missed field goals by Kyle Brotzman. There were plenty of other opportunities for the Broncos to put the game away and they didn't). And whoever loses the Big 12 title game, well, win and you'd be in, too. It has been the way the system has worked for years, and it will continue to be that way at least for the near future. A Big East team could be 10-1 right now and it wouldn't make a difference: none of these teams would be playing in a BCS bowl game. You may not agree with it, but complaining is going to fall upon deaf ears, as I don't believe the BCS computer has a built-in microphone to which you can talk into.

And who's to say UConn or West Virginia would automatically get blown out? UConn hasn't lost since Oct. 23, and WVU since Oct. 29. It looks like the Big East winner will face either the ACC champion in the Orange Bowl or the Big 12 champion in the Fiesta Bowl. That means they will either face Virginia Tech, Florida State, Nebraska or Oklahoma.

For UConn, they should be able to run, run, run all day. Jordan Todman is second in the nation in rushing at over 145 yards per game, has rushed for over 100 yards in all but one game he's played in this year, and is the UConn offense (the passing game is 113th in the nation). That being said, teams know this, but that hasn't stopped Todman and the offensive line, who have played as well as any line in the country over the past month. In the last four Husky victories Todman has averaged 161 yards per game. And those four opponents? Three are in the top-25 in fewest rushing yards allowed per game, and the fourth (Syracuse) is in the top 50. None of the four possible opponents are among the top 25 in this category. They are all middle of the pack. Sure, the secondary is a bit shaky, and in any shootout the Huskies would fade pretty quickly, but don't count them out entirely. Their defense gives up a lot of yards, but gets key turnovers. Against West Virginia they forced seven fumbles, recovering four. Among those included one on fourth down and another inside their own two-yard line in overtime. Against Cincinnati they forced five turnovers. In all they have forced 14 turnovers in their four straight wins, to just three turnovers of their own. I don't think the Huskies will win should they get the bid, but I think it could be closer than most people think. (And just remember, this Huskies team won five straight games to end 2009, including a dominating effort over South Carolina -- the same South Carolina who beat #1 Alabama and could very well upset #1 Auburn this weekend. Just saying.)

As for the Mountaineers, their defense is pretty damn good. Through 11 games only two teams have surpassed the 20-point plateau against WVU: Marshall scored 21, LSU scored 20. They have given up 10 points in three consecutive games. They are third in the nation in total yards allowed per game. The unit is, in a word, dominating. The offense is turnover-prone and Noel Devine has suffered nagging injuries all year, but something tells me with a few weeks off, he'll be just fine for the final game of his collegiate career.

I understand the criticism the Big East is facing. In all honesty, no one from that conference is worthy of a BCS bid. But by rule, someone will in fact get a bid, and it will be, barring the unforeseeable, UConn or West Virginia. I'm not saying either team will win. I'm not guaranteeing the game will be close. But please, stop with the B.S., because nothing will change, one of those teams will go to a BCS game, and, contrary to popular belief, they very well could compete.

Another year, more BCS madness. You know, just like usual.


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