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Monday, December 27, 2010

Gone Bowlin'!

I won't lie. Right now the college football season is going pretty well. I mean, through eight games only two have had any excitement and no one went to the games. But personally, I'm 7-for-8 in my Bowl Pick 'Em thus far. But come the New Year the low-tiered, pretty pointless bowls will start to wrap up, and it will be time for the big boys to step out onto the field in the BCS games. That means it's time for my second annual BCS predictions! Technically it's the third straight year I've done them, but it's the second year I've done them on this blog. Last year I went 2-3, and the year before I went 3-2, so I'm a solid .500 so far. So let's begin!

On New Year's Day is the Rose Bowl between Big Ten champ Wisconsin and #3 (and undefeated) TCU. This is a very interesting match-up to kick off the BCS games. Wisconsin is playing as well as anyone in the country, including Oregon and Auburn, and is powered by the nation's biggest and best offensive line and three capable running backs, all with over 800 yards rushing. This is their first BCS game since the 1999 Rose Bowl. TCU, in their second straight BCS game, is still looking for national respect. Looking at their schedule they beat only two ranked teams (#24 Oregon State in the season opener and a very overrated #5 Utah), but are ninth in the country in total offense and has a defense that leads the country in points allowed (11.4/gm) and yards allowed (215.4/gm). However, for all the statistics, they haven't seen an o-line that has two All-Americans and four returning starters all over 310 pounds. At 6-foot-7 and 327 pounds, Outland Trophy winner Gabe Carimi (who may be the best player in the nation) leads the way, and will do just that as Wisconsin runs away with a 35-24 win.

Later Jan. 1 is what most are expecting to be the most lopsided BCS game over when #7/Big 12 winner Oklahoma takes on the Big East "winner" Connecticut in the Fiesta Bowl. After stumbling to a 3-4 start out of the gates, UConn won their last five games to win a share of the conference title in a terrible Big East. Outside of Jordan Todman, the nation's second-leading rusher, the offense is non-existant, and the secondary is shaky at best. Many are calling the Huskies the worst BCS team ever. Oklahoma (11-2) should expect to pick apart the UConn defense and roam freely in the secondary, as Landry Jones and the third-ranked passing offense have a biiiiiit of an advantage. But don't expect a 40 point blowout. The Sooners will move the ball, but in their five-game win streak the Huskies have forced 17 turnovers -- while committing only five of their own. And the UConn offensive line is none too shabby, having dominated defenses since Halloween. Oklahoma will snap their five-game BCS losing streak, but it will be closer than expected. Sooners 32, Huskies 21.

Jan. 3 is the Orange Bowl between ACC-champ Virginia Tech and Pac-10 champion Stanford. This very easily could be the best bowl game of the season outside of Oregon-Auburn. Virginia Tech has been a totally different team since their 0-2 start, having not lost since then. ACC Player of the Year Tyrod Taylor has led the way, throwing a school-record 23 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions, and has added over 800 rushing yards. The defense is average, but like UConn they force a lot of turnovers (their 22 picks are second best in FBS). However, Stanford has Andrew Luck. A junior, Luck is considered to be the number one pick in next April's draft (if he declares, and if there is even a draft at all). He has over 3000 yards in the air, 28 TDs to just 7 INTs, and has completed a ludicrous 70 percent of his passes. So what gives? A defense that forces a ton of turnovers or a quarterback that rarely throws even an incompletion, let alone interceptions? I'll take the latter, as the Cardinal win 33-28.

The Sugar Bowl sees two at-large bids when Arkansas and Ohio State meet on Jan. 4. Ohio State is third in the nation in scoring defense. Arkansas has one of the most electrifying offenses and is third in passing. Ryan Mallett is turnover-prone, however, with 11 interceptions, but many coming in key situations (i.e. late in the fourth quarter against #1 Alabama). Terrelle Pryor of the Buckeyes is lucky to even be playing after the NCAA found that he and four teammates violated the rules by selling their rings, jerseys and awards, as well as receiving free tattoos. Which leads me to this week's tangent!!

There is absolutely no reason Pryor and his four teammates should play this game. The NCAA found they were wrong. In every prior situation that means immediate suspension. Georgia's AJ Greene sold a game-worn jersey -- a single jersey -- and was suspended immediately for four games. The six Buckeyes sold multiple jerseys and other memorabilia. Last year Oklahoma State's Dez Bryant was suspended for 10 games for talking to Deion Sanders and lying about it. The Buckeyes did not report their violations, and Pryor wrote on his Twitter page that he paid for all his tattoos. HE LIED. The NCAA tried to get out of it by saying that the players didn't deserve to be suspended because they were unaware they were breaking the rules. This just in: the reason Bryant lied was because he didn't know he was breaking the rules! Did that stop NCAA officials? Not even a little bit. But because the players are from Ohio State and it's a BCS game, Pryor and his teammates get to play. If it were any other team short of Michigan and Notre Dame, and I do mean any other team, these players get suspended. But because they are from the historic, precious Big Ten, they get to play because it is a "once in a lifetime opportunity". That shouldn't matter. It's like a parent saying "Oh, you snuck out, stole the car and crashed it? That's fine! You didn't know you were breaking the rules! So you can go to the concert tomorrow, but after that you are grounded!" And because most of them will be drafted, they can leave early, thus avoiding any punishment whatsoever.

Okay, tangent over.

Ohio State is 14th in rushing yards per game, while Arkansas is mediocre in stopping the run. Of course, they also had to face the likes of Cam Newton (Heisman winner), Mark Ingram (2009 Heisman winner) and Trent Richardson (most underrated back in the nation and best sidekick since Arkansas's Felix Jones backed up Darren McFadden). Although Jim Tressel's crew snapped their BCS losing streak in last year's Rose Bowl, they won't be extended any winning streaks, as the Razorbacks will throttle the Buckeyes 52-31.

Then there's the big one, when Auburn and Oregon play for the national title. Both teams have high-powered offenses. Oregon leads the nation in points (49.3/gm) and is fourth in rushing (over 300/gm) and has the football version of Mike D'Antoni's "Seven Seconds or Less" offense that he made famous with the Phoenix Suns. Auburn is sixth in points (42.7/gm) and rushing (287/gm) and is led by Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, who is becoming as good a thrower as he is an athlete. The outcome in this game will come from the defensive side. Who will make a key stop? Because it seems as though neither offense can be stopped. My heart wants the Ducks to win, but I can't figure out how they will be able to stop Newton when teams like Alabama (sixth fewest yards allowed per game), LSU (eighth) and Florida (ninth) could not. The Tigers will win the national title -- outright this time, as opposed to 2004. Auburn 52-45.

After the title game I will post the results in the sidebar, and hope to get above the .500 mark.

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