Rob's Decision

I've finally made my decision. A lot of stress went into it. After all, the two extremes of my NBA fandom were cruelly fused together  -- my love of Dwyane Wade, and my pure, complete hatred for LeBron James, together in Miami. The two tore at me. They were the two fat kids. I was the last Oreo (double-stuffed, of course). Which would succumb? The question of the summer was Could I root for the Heat this season, knowing LeBron is on the team?

After months and months of struggling, pondering, cerebrating, if you will, with this choice, I've come to my conclusion: I will root for the Miami Heat this season.

To recap, here was my dilemma:

Ever since his senior year at Marquette, I had been a Dwyane Wade fan. Quiet, lets his game do the talking, not a lot of people talking about him. He got drafted by the Heat, joined by my favorite player at the time, Shaquille O'Neal, and next thing you know, I'm a Heat fan. On the opposite end of the spectrum was James. The second coming was hyped to historic degrees ever since his junior year of high school. He was seemingly already better than Michael Jordan, was going to his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers, and he was going to win them a lot of championships. Spare me. He never got any support, gave a couple of lackluster playoff performances, and when he became a free agent, suddenly it is The Night of the Decision. He chose Miami, and made me angrier than the guy who got hit with Brandon Jacobs' helmet -- and couldn't keep it. How could I possibly root for a team with my second least favorite athlete?

Ultimately, however, I can't root against Dwyane Wade, a guy who donates 10% of his salary to a Chicago church, who's foundation promotes education, health and social skills to children, who bought a house for a family on Christmas Eve 2008, who donated $25,000 to keep a public library open in Illinois. Oh, and he can do this, too. His Wikipedia page has an entire section devoted to his charity work. LeBron? Well, he has one about his tattoos and public image.

So, yeah, I decided to be a Heat fan this year. But that doesn't mean the decision comes without a few provisions. Here is what I decided is going to happen. The Heat will roll to the #1-seed in the Eastern Conference, get home-court advantage, win 65 games, and all that jazz. LeBron will nearly average a triple-double (say, 28 points, 11 rebounds, 8 assists), and finish second in MVP voting behind Kevin Durant. Come the playoffs, though, in a seven-game battle with Boston, James will choke and Wade will come through with a 20-point fourth quarter performance. James will go on to struggle in the NBA Finals as Wade thrives in crunch time. Yeah, the King has a ring (finally) but he gets criticism not because he did it with help (that horse has already been beaten to death and repeatedly hit post-mortem), but because he was ineffective. That's the best I can do. After all, I can't wish for the team to lose, so that would be the second best option (that, or if LeBron got injured and babied it during the playoffs LaDainian Tomlinson-style, but I don't see it happening).

That's my wish, but obviously I don't expect it to come true. But more importantly than my far-fetched hopes and dreams, what will fans do if the team doesn't win a title within two years? To fans, the team appears to be so loaded that the only team with a remote chance to beat them is the Lakers. Realistically, add the Celtics to this list for at least this season, and if Dwight Howard improved his offense even a little bit the Magic could be darkhorse on the list since I don't think Chris Bosh is that good and is not a top-flight forward (seven seasons, one All-NBA Second Team appearance. Not impressed). This is the team everyone loves to hate, and anything short of an NBA title will be seen with the most criticism the sports world has seen since the 18-1 '08 Patriots. There is an enormous amount of pressure if the Larry O'Brien Trophy doesn't take its talents to South Beach multiple times within the next few seasons.

Conversely, if the Heat do go on a title run (consecutive titles, two in three years, per se), then people will be quick to forget all about The Decision, all about the criticism LeBron faced, all about the summer of 2010 in general. When the Yankees spent loads of money but went a decade without a World Series, people were quick to talk. But last year, after spending $423 million on Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, the critics went away for the most part because the team won a World Series. There is no reason to think an NBA title will be any different for Miami.

The team has two of the three best players in the league, plus an All-Star caliber forward, plus a decent bench full of players who will know and accept their roles. Will the team win a title this year? Who knows. If I were to put money on it, it wouldn't be a terrible bet. And I'm going to be rooting for some to some extent. But if they weren't to win, I wouldn't exactly be heartbroken.

Tulo On a High

I guess 2007 was no fluke.

If the entire baseball season was played in September, the Colorado Rockies would have won each of the last three World Series and would be cruising to a fourth straight this year. Of course that isn't the case, but once again the boys from Denver are making a late push in the last month of the season. It may not be as historic as in 2007, when the team won 13 of its final 14 games, then won an epic one-game tiebreaker against San Diego to get into the playoffs, and won seven straight to get into the World Series. But still, on September 2nd the team was 69-64 and virtually out of the playoff race. Now 16 days and and a 10 game win streak later, the team is a mere game and a half out of first place. And the play of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has almost singlehandedly steered the team towards another playoff berth.

Tulowitzki has always been solid ever since he became a full-time player in 2007 (including last year when he hit 32 home runs and drove home 92 runs). But I don't think anyone saw this coming, especially from a shortstop, which traditionally is not a power-hitter's position. Going into September Tulowitzki had 12 home runs and 55 runs batted in, for him an off season hampered by injuries (he's missed 39 games this year). What he has done this month is historic. He has 14 home runs (that's right, in 17 September games he has more than doubled his home run total) and has driven home 33 runs. It is very likely that he will shatter Ralph Kiner's National League record of 16 home runs in September. But looking further into history, he is only six home runs away from tying Sammy Sosa's major league record 20 home runs in a month, which came in June 1998. To break it he would need seven home runs in 11 games. Very possible. The record for most RBIs in a month is a lot less likely to be broken. Currently Joe DiMaggio holds that record with 53 back in August 1939. It is certainly doable with the way Tulo has played, but I think the Yankee Clipper's mark will stay. But could you imagine if he broke both records? It could very well be the greatest month any single player ever had in one month in history. Right now it is as good as Alex Rodriguez's April 2007, but that was in the opening month of the season. Big whoop. Tulowitzki's is in the middle of a playoff race, where once again the Rockies came out of nowhere and are threatening to shock the NL West and go to the playoffs. When Kiner hit 16 homers in September 1949, the Pirates began the month 21.5 games out of first and ended it 26 games back. Babe Ruth hit 17 home runs and drove in 43 runs in September 1927, but that was on the greatest team in baseball history. By the time August rolled around the team already had an 18-game lead. He could have struck out every at-bat the entire month and it would not have made any difference. Tulowitzki's performance is making a huge difference for the team, and he and Carlos Gonzalez are leading this team into the playoffs. There is still a lot of work to be done, but the Padres are struggling and the Giants can't put a winning streak together. All the signs point to a Rockies playoff berth.

Colorado has a game left against Los Angeles, then travels to Arizona, hosts a three-game set with the Giants that will probably knock one team out of playoff contention, another series with the Dodgers and a four-game set in St. Louis. Of those, the series with San Francisco and St. Louis could mean a playoff spot is at stake for both teams. If I'm Bruce Bochy or Tony LaRussa, I would absolutely, under no circumstances, pitch to Tulowitzki right now. Make Todd Helton, who bats behind Tulo, do something at the plate. I love Helton and think he is one of the most underrated players of the 2000s, but now is not the time to get nostalgic. Helton is 37, has hit .260, hit six home runs and driven in 32 this year. He is not the same player who hit .372, 43 HRs, 147 RBIs, and compiling 216 hits back in 2000. He is a guy with a bad back who has hit .182 this month. It doesn't seem logical to risk throwing to someone on a historic streak like Tulowitzki when there is an aging star whom the team should have replaced a year ago.

In terms of production and meaning, what Tulowitzki could potentially do is something we have never seen before. The question is can the Rockies continue their hot streak, and will teams keep pitching to him?

(NOTE: Stats provided by ESPN.com, baseball-reference.com, baseball-almanac.com and Fanhouse.tv.com)

My Super, Extra Long NFL Prediction Special

I don't know why I put myself through this. Because my baseball predictions from March are going so well (haha) I might as well show off my amazing credibility by making more predictions for the upcoming football season. However, as opposed to the baseball post, where there were random guesses as to what would happen, this will be a little more structured, as I'll go team by team and make a prediction of some sort for each. And guess what? All of them will come true, because I said they would! At the end of the season I'll go back and see how I did.

Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals will not finish above .500 for the season. Kurt Warner was a great comeback story, he had a heck of an arm, and he had Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to catch passes. Well, Warner retired, Matt Leinart inexplicably lost his starting job to Derek Anderson and got himself released, and Boldin bolted for Baltimore (though Early Doucet should fill his spot quite nicely). But with such a decline at the quarterback position, everyone is affected. Fitzgerald hasn't had nearly the success without Warner at the helm. The running game was 28th in the league, and will need to improve greatly. The defense was below average against the pass and one of the worst against the run (and they actually got worse defensively with the loss of Antrel Rolle). Even with the league's easiest schedule, Arizona won't be making a third consecutive post-season trip. There are too many questions in too many positions.

Atlanta Falcons: The team will win 5 of their last 6 games, but miss the playoffs. I like the Falcons this year. Matt Ryan will rebound after an inexplicable sophomore slump. Michael Turner's ankle is back to 100% and he will easily get 1200 yards and score 12-15 times. Roddy White is quietly a very good receiver. Their defense has some issues, and will give up a lot of yards through the air, but even that isn't what bothers me. It's their schedule. Based on last year's records, Atlanta has the 20th hardest schedule. But looking at it, the first half of the year is brutal. They could easily begin the season 1-3 (lose at Pittsburgh, beat Arizona, lose at New Orleans, and to San Francisco). The two weeks going into the bye they have to travel to Philly, which is a brutal environment to play in, and host defending AFC North champion Cincinnati. They also play Baltimore and Green Bay. Before they get to Week 13 they could easily have 7 losses. After Green Bay, the team will beat up on Tampa Bay, Carolina, Seattle, the New Orleans backups, and Carolina again and make a late push for a wild-card berth, but I don't think the defense is good enough to overcome the ridiculous first half of the schedule.

Baltimore Ravens: Ladies and gentlemen, your AFC champions. I hate to say it, but the Ravens have the potential to be scary good. Joe Flacco is prepped to have a breakout year, he now has Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmandzadeh to throw to along with Mark Clayton, Todd Heap, and Ray Rice. Plus, he's young but has playoff experience already. I love that in him. Rice is perhaps the most complete back in football, with the ability to run, catch, and block. Le'Ron McClain is a beast of a fullback, and Willis McGahee is a solid backup. And do I need to mention the defense? Ray Lewis may not be in his 20s anymore, but he's still the best. Terrell Suggs has always been one of the most underrated linebackers in football. Haloti Ngata is a force to be reckoned with on the defensive line. Tom Zbikowski came on strong late last year, and I like his play-making ability as well as his ability to hit hard. The only issue will be the presence of Ed Reed, who will miss at least the first six weeks of the season with a hip injury. If he can come back, his ball-hawking will be the difference between a great defense and the best defense in the AFC (with the only possible exception being the Jets). As a Pittsburgh fan, Baltimore terrifies me this year.

Buffalo Bills: CJ Spiller will be the lone bright spot. Simply put, the Bills aren't very good. Lee Evans has been the best wide receiver for what seems like ages now, what with Terrell Owens not working out like Buffalo had hoped. And this just in: Lee Evans is talented, but if he is your best receiver since Eric Moulds, the team has issues. Trent Edwards is the one throwing the ball. He is a mediocre quarterback at best. The defense gave up the 2nd fewest passing yards last season, but that's probably because they were 30th in rush defense, so everybody shoved the ball down their throats. Even with Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, the team drafted the electric Spiller out of Clemson. A good choice indeed. He can bring a firepower the offense has missed greatly for most of the last decade. If nothing more, he will bring some attention to Buffalo. My pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, as he gains 900 yards and scores 6 times.

Carolina Panthers: Matt Moore will lead the charge and challenge for a wild-card berth. Last year Jake Delhomme was a wreck, throwing 18 interceptions to just 8 touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 59.4. The team went 4-7. In comes Matt Moore, who throws 8 TDs and just 1 INT and the team finishes the year 4-1. And not only that, but they beat NFC runner-up Minnesota and obliterated a Giants team vying for a wild-card spot (they also beat New Orleans, but most of the starter didn't play). The team still has DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, both of whom eclipsed 1000 yards rushing, and a defense that was 4th-best against the pass. If they can improve the run defense, they are definitely a team who can contend for a wild-card spot. Seeing as the explosive Saints are in their division, however, they are probably a year away from contending in the divison.

Chicago Bears: The team will not win five games. Why is everyone still so up-in-arms over Jay Cutler? In his three full years as a starter his interceptions have gone up (from 14 to 18 to 26 last year), his yards per reception and quarterback rating have gone down, and his record as a starter is 24-29. Yet he is still projected to be a Top-10 fantasy quarterback, and people are raving that new offensive coordinator Mike Martz and his offensive genius will turn Cutler's performance around. Because Martz's recent coaching jobs were so good that Cutler just has to be fantastic! Since, you know, when he was the Lions' coordinator in '06 and '07 the team threw more interceptions (44) than touchdowns (40), and in San Francisco in '08 JT O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill blew the league away. The rushing attack is terrible (29th last year, no major changes), there's not really anyone for Cutler to throw to (Devin Hester and Johnny Knox are the top two receivers. Yikes), and the defense has no playmakers. Brian Urlacher is old and has a multitude of injuries, and Julius Peppers is just an overpaid defensive end. I say they split with Detroit, beat the Seahawks at home, and take down the Bills in Buffalo to finish 3-13. (Oh, and since I couldn't fit him in anywhere, I want to mention Devin Aromashodu. Not because he will have a great year or anything. I just love saying his name)

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals won't repeat as AFC North champions. Last year the Bengals were blessed by someone up above, which is pretty impressive considering they have Chad Ochocinco on their team. All the pieces fell into place perfectly. They had the 10th weakest schedule in the league. The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers (of course I had to add the title) had the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL yet lost Troy Polamalu for much of the season. They somehow managed to lose to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns. The Ravens lost Ed Reed for the majority of the season as well. Both defenses were good, but not great as a result of those losses. This year Polamalu is back, so I expect the Steelers' defense to look a lot more like their 2008 form. Plus the Bengals have the 4th toughest schedule this year, which includes traveling to New England, New York to face the Jets, and Indy, and hosting New Orleans. Chad Ochocinco is not a consistent number-one receiver anymore, and neither is Terrell Owens. That won't help an offense that was 26th in passing yards in '09. In fact, the egos might clash. They will be a wild-card contender, but I think asking for another division title is a bit much.

Cleveland Browns: Colt McCoy will start the final five games of the season. Someone in Cleveland must have been thinking LeBron James was going to stay, because the Browns gained absolutely zero star power this off-season. Instead, they handed Jake Delhomme $7 million to throw 18 more interceptions. The team is easily one of the worst in football. They didn't have a 1000 yard running back or receiver. Delhomme has not been good in over two years (5 INTs in one playoff game, anyone?). The only positive thing I can say is that when the Browns play host to the Panthers in Week 12, Delhomme will finally complete some of his passes to a Panthers player. This pre-season McCoy didn't impress much. Sure, he completed 71% of his passes, but didn't have a completion over 17 yards and was sacked 6 times. He didn't throw a touchdown pass. But, sadly, that might still be enough to get a starting nod late in the season when Delhomme nears the 20-interception mark and the team is out of playoff contention. If he is the future of the franchise, he's got to get his feet wet eventually. Might as well be later this year.

Dallas Cowboys: NFC East champs, get to the Divisional Round, that's it though. The Cowboys went 11-5 last year, with an explosive offense and a defense whose weakness was in the secondary. Tony Romo is coming off a career year (4483 yards, 26 TDs), but I question the receiving corps a little bit. Miles Austin is the only proven one, but remember that he's only started 9 games in his career. Roy E. Williams is overpaid and overrated, and the only reason he is going to start Week 1 is because first round pick Dez Bryant hurt his ankle. Eventually Bryant will take over, and people are already calling him the next big thing. I think he'll be very good, but it will take him some time to get used to the NFL. He hasn't played a game in over a year because of his suspension for lying to NCAA officials. Now he has to work his way back from an injury while learning a new system. I am being nit-picky here, though, because the running game is dynamic, Jason Witten is a fantastic pass catcher as well as blocker, and DeMarcus Ware leads the fairly solid defense. But I don't think they are better than Green Bay or Minnesota. Fortunately we'll get to compare the teams because Dallas is forced to travel to both places over the span of the year. If they go 11-5 again with the league's 2nd toughest schedule, I'd be impressed.

Denver Broncos: Kyle Orton will prove he's worth the $9 million extension he signed. All signs point towards Orton playing all of this year, then the team handing the reigns to either Brady Quinn or Tim Tebow. But the Broncos extended Orton's contract anyways, giving him an extra year worth $9 million through 2011. Now, to me getting Brady Quinn in a trade and then drafting Tebow made absolutely no sense. I can't see why Josh McDaniels is unhappy with 3800 yards and 21 TDs. He threw 12 picks, but 6 of them came in two games (3 each versus Pittsburgh and Kansas City). His quarterback rating over the final four games, when the team collapsed completely and failed to make the playoffs after a 6-0 start, 85.9, or right around his QB rating for the season. He isn't on the same level as, say, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, but neither Quinn or Tebow will ever be elite field generals either. As much as I love Tebow, I don't think he'll ever be more than an average quarterback in the NFL. Orton is better than both of the other options, and he'll prove it with 3500 yards and 25 touchdowns this year. It's a shame the loss of Elvis Dumervil will mean the defense is terrible, and the team could finish anywhere from second to last in the division.

Detroit Lions: The team might actually look like a football team (gasp!) The Matt Millen era is disappearing more and more each day, and the team might actually not be terribly, horribly atrocious. Don't get me wrong, they are not a playoff team by any stretch of the imagination, especially with two of the four best teams in the NFC (Green Bay and Minnesota) in their division.
However, the organization is taking the right steps. Matthew Stafford is in his second year behind center, and although he made rookie mistakes (20 INTs) his first year, he also showed flashes of potential. He has a big target in Calvin Johnson. Megatron had a bad year in '09, but with Nate Burleson there to distract DBs I think he'll have 1200 yards and 8-10 touchdowns once again (at least he better, considering he's my most reliable fantasy receiver compared to the hit-or-miss Percy Harvin and Mike Wallace). Rookie Jahvid Best can be electric. Defensively #2 overall draft pick Ndamukong Suh is already the target of double-teams on the offensive line, he decapitated Jake Delhomme in a pre-season game, and looks very much like he could dominate the league for the next decade. With new additions Corey Williams and Kyle Vanden Bosch, the defensive line could be really good. Expect five to six wins for the upbeat Lions this season.

Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl champions. Last year the Packers might have been one of the four best teams in the NFC, but lost in overtime to the Cardinals in the Wild Card round of the playoffs (after storming back from 21 down in the 3rd to force OT). Aaron Rodgers, breakout star from a year ago, played magnificently in the second half of that game, and now has at least a little playoff experience under his belt. He is the trendy pick my many to win the league MVP award. He has weapons around him in Greg Jennings, Donald Driver (who at 35 can still catch with the best of them), Jermichael Finley, and the most under-appreciated back in football, Ryan Grant. The offense can put up points in a hurry via air or ground, and although they gave up 51 points in the playoff loss in Arizona, have plenty of playmakers defensively. BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, and AJ Hawk lead the front seven that love to put pressure on quarterbacks. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson is at cornerback, and safety Nick Collins has 13 interceptions the past two years. For what it's worth, the team had a great pre-season. Can they carry it all the way to Dallas for Super Bowl XLV?

Houston Texans: Andre Johnson will finally get the title he deserves: Best receiver in the league. Three of the last four years Johnson has surpassed 100 receptions, with 2007 being the exception only because he missed seven games due to injury. Each of the last two years he has led the league in yards by wide margins (144 in '08 and 221 last year). He is constantly double teamed, seeing as Kevin Walter does not strike fear in defenses, yet is big enough (6-3, 228 lbs) and fast enough to cut through secondaries everywhere. Unfortunately, if you don't play fantasy football, chances are you didn't realize how dominant Johnson has been recently (he does play in Houston after all...). But this year will be different. He will finally be recognized as the hands-down best receiver the NFL has to offer. 1500 more yards will be what it takes, but he's good for it.

Indianapolis Colts: Another division title, 13 more wins, home-field advantage, etc... My goal was to make a not-obvious prediction, or at least one that would generate talk amongst the thousands of readers I have. But it's incredibly hard to think of something for a team that has been to the playoffs 10 of the last 11 years, won 6 of the last 7 AFC South titles, had 8 consecutive 10-win seasons (including 7 straight seasons of 12+ wins), advanced to at least the Divisional Round of the playoffs in 6 of 7 years, and won a Super Bowl. The Colts have done all of this, still have Peyton Manning, the best quarterback of this generation, and play in a weak division (are 15-1all-time against Houston, can't be stopped by Tennessee, and then the laughingstock Jaguars). There's not much more that can be predicted. There won't be a drop-off in wins. I don't think they are going to win the Super Bowl. I'll take the easy route here and just say the following: 13-3 record, first-round bye, beat the 5th-seeded Steelers in the Divisional Round, then lose to Baltimore in the Conference Title Game. (To see my entire playoff prediction, see here.)

Jacksonville Jaguars: David Garrard is in his last season as the starter. This team is going to struggle mightily. Garrard basically has Mike Sims-Walker to throw to and Maurice Jones-Drew to hand off to, and that's it. The defense can't stop the pass, and is mediocre at stopping the run. Chris Johnson will run freely, and Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub will feast on the secondary. Those are six losses, and that's even before you include losing to three of the four NFC East teams, San Diego, Kansas City, and possibly Oakland. Garrard isn't a terrible quarterback. His quarterback rating in '06, '08 and '09 were around the league average, and in '07 it was among the best in the AFC. He has surpassed 3500 yards each of the last two seasons. He's a solid quarterback. But in a division with Manning and Schaub, to keep up and hope for a playoff spot, the team needs a franchise quarterback. The best hope for the Jags is that they can finish poorly enough to have the worst or 2nd-worst record among them, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Seattle. That way they can get Jake Locker (unlikely though... they aren't bad enough to get the #1 pick) or Florida State's Christian Ponder. Because if they don't get either of those two, the quarterback position is weak in this year's draft class, and they will be stuck in the AFC South basement for a while otherwise.

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs will finish 2nd in the AFC West. This could easily happen. This could just easily come back to haunt me. With Charlie Weis as Matt Cassel's offensive coordinator once again, the third year starter knows most of the offense from his days in New England (though he rarely got to run it in a real-game scenario). That comfort should improve the passing attack that was 25th in the league last year. Then there's the one-two combo of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in the backfield. Charles broke out the last four games of '09, running for 658 yards over that stretch, including a 259-yard effort in the season finale at Denver that officially completed the Broncos' epic collapse. His complement is Thomas Jones, who ran for 1400 yards himself in New York. He's expected to be a second wind in the running game, but expect him to have a bigger impact than other aging backs will have (like, per se, LaDainian Tomlinson in New York). That has the potential to be a Top-5 running game. The defense was a mess, especially against the run (31st in the league). Safety Eric Berry is drawing comparisons to Troy Polamalu already, so the passing defense should improve significantly if that is the case. If they can score enough, they could have a good year. Not a playoff-type year, but a step up from 4-12.

Miami Dolphins: The Wildcat will be no more after this season. Remember that joyous late September afternoon two years ago in Foxboro? When Chad Pennington ran to the sideline and lined up as a receiver? When Ronnie Brown took the snaps directly and ran circles around the Patriots' defense, thus ending the team's 21-game winning streak with a 31-13 beatdown? I do too -- quite vividly actually -- and that's when the wildcat became the fad in the NFL. Last year the Eagles tried it with Michael Vick, and before Pat White was cut by Miami this past week, he ran the offense some of the time for the Fins. But last year coordinators began figuring the formation out. Half of the battle for opposing teams is figuring out whether the person taking the snap is going to run or pass. The Dolphins were just 2-for-11 in the passing department in '09, essentially cutting the offense's effectiveness in half. And with Ronnie Brown having a slew of injuries in the past, Ricky Williams being 33, and Pat White cut, who is going to want to run the offense on a consistent basis? Chad Henne came on strong late in the year at QB, and I think the wildcat will be overlooked, in favor of a more prolific passing attack now that Brandon Marshall is there to throw at.

Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson will fumble fewer than five times. This one might be asking for too much. Peterson is one of the league's best backs, but his downfall has been his inability to hold onto the football. In three seasons he has put the ball on the turf 19 times. That doesn't include the two fumbles in the NFC Championship Game. Typically, the general belief is "Once a fumbler, always a fumbler", with the only exception being Tiki Barber. However most of Peterson's fumbles have been when he's fought for extra yards. If he can learn when to go down, he will cut down on the fumbles. Hopefully Brett Favre gets that through his head.

New England Patriots: Wes Welker will have 120 catches. This guy has got to be a freak of nature. Nine months after tearing his ACL and MCL he was back on the field, participating in contact drills, running routes with his typical precision, and looking confident in his cuts. That just doesn't happen. But for someone who works as hard as Welker, I guess I shouldn't be that surprised. Each of the last three seasons he has surpassed 110 catches and 1100 yards. Last year was his best, catching 123 balls and gaining over 1300 yards in only fourteen games. Most people coming back from re-constructive knee surgery need a year to fully return to peak status (even Golden Boy Tom Brady had an "off" year, at least for him), especially at receiver, a position at which fear of making sharp cuts is killer. But the knee will be fine, and Welker will be back to tip-top form in no time and Bill Belichick should have nothing to worry about there. Now if only he could say the same thing about his defense...

New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees will snap the Madden curse. Daunte Culpepper threw 23 interceptions, then blew out his knees and was never the same player. Marshall Faulk never had another 1000 yard season. Michael Vick broke his fibula in the pre-season. Ray Lewis did not record an interception for the first time, then broke his wrist in Week 15. Donovan McNabb suffered a sports hernia. Shaun Alexander broke his foot and never returned to form. Brett Favre threw 22 picks. Troy Polamalu missed most of the year with a knee injury suffered in Week 1. What do all of these random tid-bits have in common? Each player was on the cover of the most recent Madden game at the time. Aren't you pumped to be on the cover this year Drew!? Brees, though, will be the black sheep of this group. With all of the rules against hitting quarterbacks now, and Brees' durability (two missed starts the last seven seasons, one of which was Sean Payton's decision to rest the starters in Week 17 last year), he will play the whole season, he will throw for 4200 yards and 30 TDs, and he will be in the MVP race. The Saints will repeat as division champs, lose at Lambeau in the conference title game, and Who Dat Nation will be happy.

New York Giants: Brandon Jacobs will be ineffective once again, and the team will release him. After back-to-back 1000 yard seasons in 2007 and 2008, the monster Jacobs had an abysmal 2009 campaign, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and scoring only 5 times en route to 835 yards. This came after he signed a 4-year/$25 million contract extension last February. And after learning that he officially lost his starting job to Ahmad Bradshaw, Jacobs' attitude does not bode for a good year. He told Jill Seward of NESN that it is "hard to stay positive" and blamed the culture of the league for his demotion. I guess seeing your yards per carry decrease by a yard and touchdowns decrease by ten isn't reason enough for a demotion. It's all the league's fault. Seward wrote, "But apparently, sharing the spotlight wasn't on Jacobs' agenda this season." With that kind of attitude, I see no reason why his numbers should improve.

New York Jets: Mark Sanchez will cost the team 1-2 wins, and possibly a Super Bowl. With Darrelle Revis back, the Jets strengthened their case for best defense in the league. Revis Island at one corner, Antonio Cromartie at the other, Bart Scott anchoring the linebackers, and Kris Jenkins plugging up the middle, it's going to be very hard for teams to score. Defense certainly won't be an issue for Gang Green. Offensively, I don't think substituting shut-up-and-run Thomas Jones for diva LaDainian Tomlinson was a good idea, but Shonn Greene will have a breakout year anyways, so the running game will be fine, too. It is Sanchez I'm worried about. There's something about him that I just don't feel comfortable with. He had a solid rookie year, and now has more weapons around him. But Braylon Edwards gets a case of the dropsies often, Santonio Holmes is suspended to start the year, and Nate Washington was cut. He was a manage-the-game type quarterback, which worked seeing as the team went to the AFC Title Game, but to get over the hump and win the Super Bowl, teams need a quarterback to lead them in today's pass-happy league. Look at the last decade of Super Bowl champions. Only the '01 Ravens won with an average quarterback (Trent Dilfer). Since, every team has had a top-flight QB under center. The good news is his breakout game was in the playoffs against Indy (17-for-30, 257 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), but it was only the third time he surpassed 250 yards in a single game. He didn't lead any comeback drives, either. All of this leads me to believe that the Jets might be a year away, because Sanchez isn't ready to be an elite quarterback.

Oakland Raiders: Jason Campbell will carry this team to the 6-win mark. With JaMarcus Russell finally gone, replaced by the competent-but-not-flashy Campbell, the team is beginning to go in the right direction. Michael Bush and Darren McFadden are a decent one-two punch at running back. Zach Miller is one of the better tight ends in the league. The receivers are not very good, which will hold back the capabilities of the offense, but it will be an improvement over last year. Defensively Richard Seymour and Rolando McClain lead the front seven, Nnamdi Asomugha is the league's second-best shutdown corner behind Darrelle Revis, plus my boy Tyvon Branch is consistent at safety, totaling 124 tackles last year. They aren't good, but they aren't terrible, either. 6 wins is very doable with a somewhat fair schedule.

Philadelphia Eagles: Trading Donovan McNabb will come back to haunt the Eagles. The team trading franchise quarterback McNabb to "hated division rival" Washington in the off-season made me mad because it furthered my theory that there is no true rivalry in sports anymore. But in the seemingly up-for-grabs NFC East, it could very well be Philly who will regret trading the cornerstone of their franchise within the division. Now they have a first-year starter in Kevin Kolb going up against NFL defenses plus the feisty Philadelphia sports fans, a running back in LeSean McCoy who basically has to be the entire rushing attack, and two deep threat receivers (DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin) who could be hit-or-miss. The defense is expected to be one of the league's best, but looking at the depth chart nothing looks that special about it. Trent Cole will be a force at defensive end and Asante Samuel has play-making ability, but other than that no real threat appears to be there. Besides, McNabb knows the defense, including how to beat them. Two Redskins victories right there. The team also hasn't won in Dallas since 2007, and were beat down there twice in consecutive weeks (a 24-0 whopping in Week 17 then an equally as bad 34-14 playoff loss), so that's another loss. The secondary is vulnerable to the pass, and they have to face Green Bay, Indy, Houston, and Minnesota. At least two losses there. With the veteran McNabb, I give the team a shot in all of those games. But with the untested Kolb, I'm not so sure.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The defense will return to its 2008 form. The 2008 defense was one of the best ever. They led every major statistical category except rushing yards allowed, which they were 2nd. That defense anchored the team that would go on to win the Super Bowl. The 2009 squad looked the same except for Larry Foote was replaced by Lawrence Timmons. But injuries to Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith decimated the team, as the defense was shaky against the pass and could not hold 4th quarter leads. This year both players are back. Smith is quiet, but very consistent and is another body that needs to be accounted for, freeing up James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. Polamalu is the most indispensable player undoubtedly, as his play-making abilities allow for the corners to take more risks. Barring another injury to the knee, the presence of #43 will make the Pittsburgh D look a lot more intimidating, which is good considering they'll be without Ben Roethlisberger for the first four games.

San Diego Chargers: The probable loss of Vincent Jackson will hurt the Bolts. Perhaps the breakout receiver from last year was Vincent Jackson. Unfortunately for San Diego, his contract didn't represent that, and he says he is willing to hold out for ten weeks to get a new one. A trade seems inevitable at this point. But his loss is huge for a team that really didn't have a whole lot of other options at the wide-out position. He was their biggest, fastest choice, and became one of the league's best deep threats. Antonio Gates will probably have double teams on him at all times now, as teams will make Phillip Rivers throw to Malcom Floyd and Patrick Crayton, both of whom are fairly solid, neither of whom are #1-type guys. And to ask rookie Ryan Mathews to come in and fix the league's least productive rushing attack from a year ago is a bit much. The division is weak enough to win still, but come playoff time against the Baltimores, New Yorks, or Pittsburghs, a deep threat is pivotal for a team that struggles to run.

San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Willis surpasses Ray Lewis as the best middle linebacker in football. For the past decade and a half Ray Lewis has been the middle linebacker in football. Consistently getting 130+ tackles a year, he's been the standard by which all of his peers of this generation are judged. But at 35 one has to think Lewis has to slow down eventually, and he'll have to pass the torch to someone. Enter Willis. He has been in the league for three years, and here are his tackle totals: 174 in 2007, 141 in 2008, and 152 in 2009. He and Lewis are very similar. He doesn't quite have the pass coverage skills Lewis does, but he forces more fumbles and his instincts are just as good. Both are 6'1" and around 245 lbs. There are enough similarities between the two that when Lewis retires, Willis will be the new standard. Why hasn't his name been out there more if he's so good? Well he plays in San Francisco, and the only thing they've done since drafting Willis is fail to live up to high expectations. This year is different, though. Mike Singletary is a good coach (and was a Hall of Fame linebacker himself, mind you), the NFC West is easily the worst division in football, and the 49ers should pretty much win the division by default, even if they finish 9-7 or 8-8. Willis will put up the same numbers he has been, only this year they will be noticed.

Seattle Seahawks: They will finish in the Top-10 in run defense. There are a few reasons I think this. For one, their pass defense is so awful that teams will air it out all game long, and running the ball will not be necessary. But secondly, with the return of Lofa Tatupu (who missed eleven games last year with a torn pectoral muscle), the linebackers are fairly solid. Tatupu is consistently a 100-tackle guy who is very fast, and will plug up holes quickly. Last year the only bright spot was the fact that the team was 11th-best at stopping the run. They got worse from last year to this year, but they will make the leap into the top-10 in something.

St. Louis Rams: The team will improve from their 1-15 record. They will go 2-14.Did you know the Rams can say they beat the Patriots and Ravens this year? I mean, sure, it was in the pre-season, but sadly that might be the highlight of this team's season. Call me crazy but I highly doubt Sam Bradford, who hasn't played a full-fledged football game in 20 months, will magically make all the Rams' woes go away. This is a team that was 28th in passing, 20th in running, 25th against the pass, and 27th against the run. They have all sorts of problems on both sides of the ball. Steven Jackson is their only other talent, but he's averaged 335 touches since 2005, and he has had a history of back problems, including surgery this past off-season. They'll beat Tampa Bay in Week 7 and Kansas City in Week 15, but that's it.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kellen Winslow will have 90 receptions and 1200 yards receiving. I don't think Winslow is one of the top ten tight ends in the NFL. This prediction was basically made because he's the only one with prior success catching the football, and quarterback Josh Freeman will quickly realize that with Antonio Bryant gone for good, Winslow is his most reliable target (yes offense to Mike Williams). Winslow's 77 receptions were 38 more than the next closest player on the team (Bryant), and his 127 targets were 41 more than anyone else. Expect a career year not because Winslow is as good as his dad, or because he is an elite tight end. It's just that Tampa is so bad offensively that they literally have no other options.

Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson will not surpass 1500 yards. Yeah, last year Johnson ran for over 2000 yards and set a single-season record for yards from scrimmage. But that won't happen again for sure. Of the five running backs to rush for over 2000 yards before him, only one (Barry Sanders in 1998) managed to surpass even 1400 yards the following year. Furthermore, of those five backs, only Terrell Davis had more touches (417) than Johnson had last year (408), and the next year was the beginning of the end for Davis, as he played in only four games. Football is a vicious sport, and getting hit as much as much as Johnson was last year takes a whole lot out of the body. Johnson is only 24, so his body is still sprightly and youthful, but last year's production will make him an obvious target to teams. And as history has shown, don't expect another record-setting season.

Washington Redskins: The running game will finish 29th or worse. If this were 2005 the Redskins would easily be favored to win the NFC East. Donovan McNabb at quarterback. Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson in the backfield. Santana Moss and Joey Galloway at wide-out. Yikes. Unfortunately, it's 2010, and aside from McNabb, all of these players are washed up. Especially Portis and Johnson. After finishing just shy of 1500 yards two seasons ago, Portis missed half of last season, scoring only once en route to 494 yards. At 29, he's just about over the hill. Johnson rushed for almost 1800 yards in 2005, but has yet to play a full season since, nor has he surpassed 900 yards in a season. Last year he split time with Kansas City and Cincinnati and rushed for a mere 581 yards. I can't see this tandem being good, although with Mike Shanahan as their head coach they at least have a chance.

(NOTE: Stats from ESPN.com, NFL.com, and pro-football-reference.com)

Pollsters Seeing Blue

The most anticipated game of the year thus fair did not fail to disappoint. When Boise State and Virginia Tech met at FedEx Field on Monday night, there were high expectations, and an even better game. It looked as though Boise State would run away with it, as they came out pumped up and didn't just punch the Hokies in the mouth, they had a running start and Ivan Drago power behind that punch. Before you could blink it was 10-0, and before your popcorn was popped it was 17-0. But with all the problems Frank Beamer's crew faced early, they fought their way back and had the lead late. However, Kellen Moore masterfully led a drive late and led the Broncos to a 33-30 victory. And although they were the higher ranked team, to most of college football it was no doubt an upset. Here are my thoughts as the game went on:

1st Quarter:

Wow. Boise State is the real deal. I was amazed at how prepared and poised the team looked. Big crowd, essentially a road game considering Boise is 2400 miles from Landover, Maryland and Blacksburg, Virginia is 275, basically the team's national title game. And what do they do? They come out extra aggressive, and convert turnovers into points. On a 3rd-and-1 Tech handed the ball off to their star running back Ryan Williams and read the isolation perfectly. The entire first half the Broncos dominated in the trenches. They didn't give Williams any space to run, and if Taylor scrambled, it was to the sideline for only four or five yards. Then after blocking a punt and taking over at the Hokies' 10-yard line, quarterback Kellen Moore expertly faked the handoff, made the safety bite, and had an easy touchdown pass. Five-plus minutes in, already 10-0.

Conversely, as impressive as the Broncos were, Virginia Tech was just as bad. For years Frank Beamer and his patented "Beamer Ball" has thrived on special teams and discipline, neither of which appeared over the first fifteen minutes. On the second play of the game Tyrod Taylor, a four-year starter, fumbled the snap. Then on the second drive they went 3-and-out and had a punt blocked. Usually it is Tech blocking the punts. That goes towards the preparedness of Boise. They studied the film, found a hole, and beat the Hokies at their own game. Then on a 4th-and-1, just when the offense was about to get the ball back, DJ Coles ran into the kicker, then on top of that was called for an unnecessary roughness penalty. That led to another Boise State touchdown. Suddenly it's 17-0, and all 17 points could have been prevented. As good as the Broncos were, Virginia Tech was truly terrible on offense and special teams, which gave the defense no chance. Kellen Moore threw 39 TDs to just 3 INTs last year. He isn't going to make mistakes.

(Side note away from the game: Kellen Moore is a damn good college quarterback. Unfortunately for him, he's not NFL material. His throwing motion is very awkward. There is a lot of wasted movement. He has happy feet, doesn't step into his throws enough, and as a result throws far too often off his back foot. Because of it his body flies open, and the ball comes out of his hand with less accuracy and a very wobbly spiral. His best throw was a beautiful, perfectly executed fade route, complete with a disgusting, one-handed catch for a touchdown. If he threw more passes like that, my opinion on him would change. In fact, if he threw all of his passes like he did in that winning drive, which were purposeful and confident, I would like him more, even with the awkward footwork. I look at him like a Tim Tebow-esque quarterback. He has the stats, has the intangibles, but the fundamentals in form are weak, which is a major turnoff to pro scouts. By the time a quarterback reaches the NFL coaches don't want to waste time re-teaching someone how to throw.)

My final note from the 1st quarter was the crowd. Being so close to Virginia Tech, I expected an awful lot of maroon and orange. There certainly was an advantage for the Hokies, but I was shocked at how much blue there was in the crowd. There's no doubt those Idahoians (??) love their Boise State football!

2nd Quarter:

The rust began to wear off, and as Virginia Tech finally got into a groove, Tyrod Taylor looked good. When given more than three seconds to throw, it 's amazing what he can do. First off, he has a cannon. Coming out of his hand the ball flies and has a crisp, tight spiral. It is a thing of beauty. Down 17 he kept his composure and began to lead the comeback. For the most part he and Williams had no room to run, yet in those rare opportunities when even a small hole opened, the two were explosive and began running freely. When that happened the landscape began to change. The defense -- which didn't play poorly in the first quarter, they were put into tough situations -- was beginning to get into a rhythm, and the offense was putting drives together, gaining 105 yards in the 2nd quarter compared to just five yards in the 1st. Going into the half being down only four and beginning to put it all together, I thought the Hokies were going to be fine.

3rd Quarter:

Coming out of the half, I continued to be impressed by the Boise State defense. Right from the opening kickoff they were aggressive, always around the ball. There were four or five hideously grey jerseys around the ball at all times. But then Taylor and Williams began to take over. When Williams scored for the third time as Va. Tech took the lead at 21-20, it was only the 13th time he touched the ball. A workhorse, Williams just wore down the Boise defense. On both sides of the ball the Hokies began looking more and more explosive off the line as the Broncos began to get tired. This includes special teams, as there was pressure on punts, and later a blocked extra point. I questioned how much Boise had left in the tank, what with their 17 point lead gone and the defense looking exhausted. I thought the team -- with the magnitude and implications of the game, knowing what a loss would mean -- came out too pumped up and tired themselves out too early. I honestly thought it would be up to Kellen Moore to trade touchdowns and hope he had the ball last, because the defense could do nothing to stop the Hokie offense. Then what happens? BOOM. A 71-yard touchdown run, and there was once again life on the Boise State bench. The defense was once again aggressive, playing with a swag, an air of confidence. But that confidence went too far on 4th-and-5 deep in Bronco territory. Not wanting to give Taylor time to throw, seven Broncos rushed, and they ended up getting burned, giving up a fairly easy touchdown. Against crappy WAC teams the Broncos can afford to be as reckless as they want. But against the #10 team in the country with a 4-year starter in Taylor, you can't do that. End of 3: 27-26 Va. Tech.

4th Quarter:

The Boise offense wasn't the potent force they were against WAC teams a year ago, but they were consistently good. The chemistry between Moore and receiver Titus Young was impressive, as it seemed Moore would throw the ball into nothingness and Young would come down with it. And I found effective the Boise running attack of DJ Harper and Doug Martin. They hit the holes with power, broke arm tackles, and were hard to take down. They led a solid drive early in the quarter, but it ended with no points due to a missed field goal. While the storyline was how the kicker had a mental fight against the left hash mark, the miss wasn't entirely his fault, as the snap bounced to the holder, who had to scramble to get the ball in place.

From there, Virginia Tech had a very effective 10-play, 64-yard drive capped by a 34-yard field goal to extend the lead to 30-26. After a Boise punt, Tech had the ball once again. A touchdown would end it. This was problematic for Tyrod Taylor. He throws hard to begin with, but you could get the sense that he was trying to overthrow the ball. A few throws that he would have made in the 2nd and 3rd quarter he wasn't making, and the drive ended.

So after a good punt return Kellen Moore had the ball at his own 44 with 1:47 to go and no timeouts. A pre-season Heisman candidate, this was a perfect time for Moore to show America what he's all about. Prime-time on national television in a hyped game, a chance to lead his team to victory. He choked right? WRONG. Moore had ice in his veins, going 4-for-5 on the drive, making the Hokie secondary look pathetic (which they kind of were... I mean single-coverage on Titus Young, who had killed them all game?). Helped by an awful unnecessary roughness call, with about 1:10 left they had the ball on the 13. Two plays later, Moore might have won himself the Heisman after Week 1 with a gorgeous touch pass to Austin Pettis to take the lead.

From there, Taylor tried to throw four bombs, the Hokies turned the ball over on downs in four plays, and what do you know? The Broncos beat the Hokies, 33-30. Who'd've thunk it?

So one game in and Boise can now pretty much go on cruise control for the rest of the season, with the only exceptions being a game against Oregon State in a few weeks, and against a surprisingly good Fresno State team on November 19. So if they finish the year undefeated, will it be enough to get them in the national title game? Of course, Alabama and/or Ohio State would have to lose, but to the voters it is a legitimate argument over whether a one-loss 'Bama, Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma, or Florida is better than the undefeated Broncos. But this year there would be more scrutiny than ever if Boise State was left out of the national title game again. There is going to be a lot of pressure on the voters, which make up 2/3 of the BCS formula. Should things play out as I expect them to, however, sorry Broncos: you'll go to a BCS game, just not the one you want to go to. I still think it will be Alabama-Wisconsin (that's right, Wisconsin). But the Broncos took a darn good step towards getting to that title game, and that's a start that Chris Petersen couldn't draw up any better.