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Saturday, September 18, 2010

Tulo On a High

I guess 2007 was no fluke.

If the entire baseball season was played in September, the Colorado Rockies would have won each of the last three World Series and would be cruising to a fourth straight this year. Of course that isn't the case, but once again the boys from Denver are making a late push in the last month of the season. It may not be as historic as in 2007, when the team won 13 of its final 14 games, then won an epic one-game tiebreaker against San Diego to get into the playoffs, and won seven straight to get into the World Series. But still, on September 2nd the team was 69-64 and virtually out of the playoff race. Now 16 days and and a 10 game win streak later, the team is a mere game and a half out of first place. And the play of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has almost singlehandedly steered the team towards another playoff berth.

Tulowitzki has always been solid ever since he became a full-time player in 2007 (including last year when he hit 32 home runs and drove home 92 runs). But I don't think anyone saw this coming, especially from a shortstop, which traditionally is not a power-hitter's position. Going into September Tulowitzki had 12 home runs and 55 runs batted in, for him an off season hampered by injuries (he's missed 39 games this year). What he has done this month is historic. He has 14 home runs (that's right, in 17 September games he has more than doubled his home run total) and has driven home 33 runs. It is very likely that he will shatter Ralph Kiner's National League record of 16 home runs in September. But looking further into history, he is only six home runs away from tying Sammy Sosa's major league record 20 home runs in a month, which came in June 1998. To break it he would need seven home runs in 11 games. Very possible. The record for most RBIs in a month is a lot less likely to be broken. Currently Joe DiMaggio holds that record with 53 back in August 1939. It is certainly doable with the way Tulo has played, but I think the Yankee Clipper's mark will stay. But could you imagine if he broke both records? It could very well be the greatest month any single player ever had in one month in history. Right now it is as good as Alex Rodriguez's April 2007, but that was in the opening month of the season. Big whoop. Tulowitzki's is in the middle of a playoff race, where once again the Rockies came out of nowhere and are threatening to shock the NL West and go to the playoffs. When Kiner hit 16 homers in September 1949, the Pirates began the month 21.5 games out of first and ended it 26 games back. Babe Ruth hit 17 home runs and drove in 43 runs in September 1927, but that was on the greatest team in baseball history. By the time August rolled around the team already had an 18-game lead. He could have struck out every at-bat the entire month and it would not have made any difference. Tulowitzki's performance is making a huge difference for the team, and he and Carlos Gonzalez are leading this team into the playoffs. There is still a lot of work to be done, but the Padres are struggling and the Giants can't put a winning streak together. All the signs point to a Rockies playoff berth.

Colorado has a game left against Los Angeles, then travels to Arizona, hosts a three-game set with the Giants that will probably knock one team out of playoff contention, another series with the Dodgers and a four-game set in St. Louis. Of those, the series with San Francisco and St. Louis could mean a playoff spot is at stake for both teams. If I'm Bruce Bochy or Tony LaRussa, I would absolutely, under no circumstances, pitch to Tulowitzki right now. Make Todd Helton, who bats behind Tulo, do something at the plate. I love Helton and think he is one of the most underrated players of the 2000s, but now is not the time to get nostalgic. Helton is 37, has hit .260, hit six home runs and driven in 32 this year. He is not the same player who hit .372, 43 HRs, 147 RBIs, and compiling 216 hits back in 2000. He is a guy with a bad back who has hit .182 this month. It doesn't seem logical to risk throwing to someone on a historic streak like Tulowitzki when there is an aging star whom the team should have replaced a year ago.

In terms of production and meaning, what Tulowitzki could potentially do is something we have never seen before. The question is can the Rockies continue their hot streak, and will teams keep pitching to him?

(NOTE: Stats provided by ESPN.com, baseball-reference.com, baseball-almanac.com and Fanhouse.tv.com)

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