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Monday, August 30, 2010

Are You Ready For Some Football?

The long wait is finally over. After six long months of withdrawal, college football kicks off this week. At least for me, it's perfect timing. My roommates are gone home for the weekend, therefore half the plans I would have are cut, and I have an entire afternoon to watch UConn-Michigan and then TCU-Oregon State. Then on Monday there's what could be the 2nd most important game of the year in Boise State-Virginia Tech. I guess eventually I'll buckle down and do my schoolwork... but mainly watch football. But with 6 BCS conferences and 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams, how does one know what to watch, who to watch, and when? Let me help out.

ACC
Team to Watch: Florida State Things are a bit different in Tallahassee now, what with Bobby Bowden being forced into retirement and Jimbo Fisher in place behind the clipboard. But the last few years have been bad for the usually dominant Seminoles. They haven't reached the ten-win plateau since 2003, had wins in '06 and '07 vacated due to a cheating scandal, and haven't been to a BCS game since '06. For a team with two national titles and 15 conference championships, going to the Emerald Bowl, Music City Bowl, Champs Sports Bowl, and Gator Bowl in four consecutive years doesn't fly. Coming off a 7-6 year, the Seminoles have two very difficult road games, as they travel to Norman to take on Oklahoma on Sept. 11 and face Miami (FL) on Oct. 9. The good news is that they return quarterback Christian Ponder, leading rusher Jermaine Thomas, and 2nd-leading receiver Bert Reed. The pressure to win is enormous.

Player to Watch: Jacory Harris (Miami) Simply put, the kid has a cannon. He threw for 3352 yards and 24 touchdowns a year ago, but also had 17 interceptions. On any given day he could be great (20-for-25, 270 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs against Georgia Tech), or he could be terrible (3 INTs versus Clemson and 4 versus North Carolina). If his decision making can improve this year, he very well could lead Randy Shannon's most talented team yet to an ACC title and help bring the 'Canes back to glory.

Prediction: Miami's two toughest games are both non-conference as they travel to Ohio State and Pitt on back-to-back weeks. However those games do not factor into the conference rankings, and I think Miami lucked out. They have to travel to Clemson to open the conference season, which is always a tough place to play, but they get Florida State, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech at SunLife Stadium. The talent is certainly there, and the conference schedule is somewhat favorable as well. In the ACC title game they beat Florida State for the 2nd time and go to the Orange Bowl, finishing the year 11-3.

Big East
Team to Watch: Connecticut The Huskies' five losses were by a combined 15 points in 2009, three of which were heartbreakers that came after the death of cornerback Jasper Howard in October. They ended the year on a four game winning streak, highlighted by a program-defining overtime win over Notre Dame and a PapaJohns.com Bowl win over South Carolina. This year's squad sees 16 starters return, including senior quarterback Zach Fraser, who showed good composure down the stretch. The offensive line and linebacking corps are always solid. The big question is in the secondary, which is very young and susceptible to giving up big plays. There has never been so much hype coming out of Storrs, and expectations are high. The Huskies are no longer coming out of nowhere. Can they live up to the hype?

Player to Watch: Dion Lewis (Pittsburgh) Talk about talent. As a true freshman Lewis finished with 1799 yards and 17 touchdowns. He is already 4th on the all-time rushing list at Pitt, and is considered by many as a pre-season Heisman contender. At 5'8" he is small, however incredibly fast and surprisingly strong, with the ability to break as many tackles as he does ankles. However, last year he carried the ball 325 times and had 350 touches. Against Rutgers and Cincinnati he had 31 and a ridiculous 47 carries, respectively. To put it into perspective, Lewis had more carries in 13 games than every running back in the NFL except Chris Johnson, Thomas Jones, and Steven Jackson had in 16 games. And with the losses of Dorin Dickerson, Oderick Turner, and Nate Byham, QB Tino Sunseri has fewer options to go to. That means expect to see just as much of Lewis this year. My pick for Offensive Player of the Year.

Prediction: Pre-season favorite and "sexy" pick Pittsburgh would be the easy way to go. However I don't think they have enough weapons on offense and will rely too much on Lewis and star receiver Jonathan Baldwin. West Virginia has it's third starting QB in as many years in sophomore Geno Smith, but he has limited experience and missed a good portion of off-season workouts with a broken foot. He certainly has the weapons around him, but I think the off-the-field issues surrounding the program will become a distraction. UConn has too many problems in the secondary and has no proven go-to receiver. That's why I'm picking Cincinnati to win its 3rd consecutive Big East title. Quarterback Zach Collaros has the job all to himself now, and he is the real deal. In 10 games he threw for 1434 yards and 10 touchdowns, but mind you in six of those games he didn't start. He is a dual threat as he can fly out of the pocket at any moment. Plus he has Armon Binns, DJ Woods, Isiah Pead (who's slated to have a breakout year), and Ben Guidugli to work with. The defense has issues to address, but nothing that has plagued them the last few years. The Bearcats will go to another BCS game.

Big Ten
Team to Watch: Ohio State It's another year, more high hopes for THE Ohio State University. The pre-season #2 team in the land returns fourteen starters, and are led by quarterback Terrelle Pryor, now in his third year under center. After snapping their three-year BCS game losing streak in last year's Rose Bowl, it's time for the Buckeyes to take the next step and make it to (and perhaps compete for a change) in the national championship game. The games to watch are on Oct. 16 at Wisconsin and Nov. 20 at Iowa.

Player to Watch: Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State) Here's a kid whom every college came a-callin' to when he was in high school, and for much of the first two years he was a bit of a disappointment. The Rose Bowl was his coming out party, and Oregon's defense hosted it. He showed poise in the pocket, knew when and when not to scramble, and had flashes of brilliance right from the opening drive, finishing 23-for-37 with 266 yards, 2 TDs and an INT. If that player shows up every Saturday, he could very well win the Heisman and the Buckeyes could put it on cruise control for most of the season. If the Pryor who failed to surpass 125 passing yards six times shows up, it could very well be another good season, but one full of "What-ifs".

Prediction: There are three things that I love in a college football team: a big-ole offensive line, a beast of a running back, and experience. Wisconsin has all three. All of their offensive lineman are over 310 lbs, and four of them are returning starters. They have John Clay to block for, who ran for over 1500 yards and 18 scores last season, and at 6'1" 255 lbs is a monster. In all 16 starters return for the Badgers, who I think can finish the year with only one loss (they will split with Ohio State and Iowa, a brutal two weeks if you ask me), and have a legitimate chance to make it to their first BCS game since the 2000 Rose Bowl.

Big 12
Team to Watch: Oklahoma A year ago the Sooners were ranked third in the preseason polls. A Sam Bradford shoulder injury later, the team finished a disappointing 8-5. With Bradford gone to the semi-professional ranks by being drafted to St. Louis, full control of the team goes to sophomore Landry Jones. Jones had a very impressive freshman year, throwing for 3100 yards and 26 TDs. If he can cut down the turnovers (14 in '09), and DeMarco Murray can handle the pressures of being the full-time running back, the offense could be explosive enough to counter the fact that only five starters return on defense.

Player to Watch: Marquise Goodwin and Garrett Gilbert (Texas) Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley were the most prolific tandem in school history. No one connected for more catches (205), yards (2545), or touchdowns (24) in Longhorns history. That being said, both players are gone. That leaves Gilbert and Goodwin to take the reigns as smoothly as possible. Last year Gilbert saw the true powers of "one play away" for backups, as when Colt McCoy went down in the BCS Championship Game, Gilbert was thrown into the fire, completing just 15 of 40 passes while throwing two touchdowns and four picks. Now, it's a tad unfair that the country's first look of the kid was in the biggest game of the year as he came off the bench for the first meaningful time in his career, so he gets a pass. But now it's the real deal. He is the leader of the offense, and Goodwin is his best weapon. The two don't need to be as good as McCoy and Shipley right away, seeing as they return seven starters on a team that was 12th in points allowed in '09. But to repeat as Big 12 champs and make a run at a national title, they're going to have to give it their best effort.

Prediction: Texas is too young offensively with Gilbert at the helm. The Big 12 has not been known for its intimidating defenses in recent years, but Oklahoma's appears younger and less experienced than everyone else. Plus, they have to deal with each other, as well as a Baylor team that I believe can make some noise this year. That's why I'm picking the team that was one second away from a conference title last year in Nebraska. To get to the conference title game, the 8th-ranked Huskers have to have a better conference record than: Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, and Iowa State. That's not exactly the SEC East. For a team that was able to get to the title game with a mediocre offense last year, with eight returning starters on offense this year, it should be even easier. And if the offense improves enough, you just might see Nebraska playing for the national title come January.

Pac-10
Team to Watch: Washington The Huskies are an interesting team. Here is a team that was a middle-of-the-pack team in just about every statistical category in '09, but returns ten offensive and eight defensive starters. Among those are a 1000-yard rusher in Chris Polk, a receiver who averaged 106 yards per contest over the final four games of last year in Jermaine Kearse, and a Heisman candidate in Jake Locker, who is already being dubbed the inevitable #1 pick in next April's NFL Draft. The problem last year was that the defense gave up 27 points a game. If they can grow as a unit and take advantage of their overall experience, this is a team that could surprise people. We'll see how good they truly are after they take on #8 Nebraska and #14 USC in back-to-back weeks in early October.

Player to Watch: Rahim Moore (UCLA) A hard-hitting safety is becoming more and more of a lost art in the NFL merely because more and more pass coverages are being used. The days of Ronnie Lott or, much more recently, John Lynch destroying their opponents are long gone. Now Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed lead a group that are ball-hawking monsters. Rahim Moore fits this perfectly. Last year he led the NCAA in interceptions with ten, and piled up 45 tackles. He isn't the most talented player in the conference. He won't win Defensive Player of the Year. But he has a knack for always being around the ball and making a big play when the defense needs one.

Prediction: Oregon and Oregon State are the two favorites, however both have major quarterback issues. That being said, however, I don't like any of the other teams in the conference enough to go against either of these two teams (remember that USC will not be bowl eligible, and cannot accept a BCS bid should they win the conference). So basically the Dec. 4 showdown in Eugene will, like last year, be for a trip to the Rose Bowl. I said last year on my morning sportscast that the 113th Civil War made the first 112 pale in comparison. The 114th could be even bigger, as both teams have such high expectations. I like Oregon and loved their bad-ass white helmets from the Rose Bowl, but I'm picking the Beavers.

SEC
Team to Watch: Arkansas Michigan had something going for them when they recruited Ryan Mallett. Last year he threw for 3624 yards and 30 touchdowns to just 7 picks, and is a pre-season candidate to win the Heisman. The bad news for the Wolverines? Mallet transferred two seasons ago to Arkansas, and those stats were put up in Fayetteville. To complement him are each of his top five receivers from last year on a team that was 10th in the nation in passing yards per game and points scored. Plus, they have the luxury of getting top-ranked Alabama and #21 LSU at home. If they can survive and beat Georgia and Auburn, those two games could be their season.

Player to Watch: John Brantley (Florida) It's difficult backing up legends. Just ask Tony Banks, Mark Malone, and now Tavaris Jackson (although his situation is a tad different from others...). But to replace Tim Tebow, the Herculean figure of all Hurculean figures?! Talk about pressure. And that's just what Brantley will have coming into this season. He only appeared in six games last year, and by the time he entered they were laughingstocks of games anyways. Now he's thrown into the fire as the quarterback for the 4th-ranked team in the country.

Prediction: Alabama has only ten starters returning from last season's championship team. However, those ten are pretty darn good. Greg McElroy progressed as the year went on from a manage-the-game quarterback to one Nick Saban could go to if they need a big play. He also has Julio Jones to throw the ball towards. Jones, coming off a rocky year, should be the playmaker he was thought to be when he was recruited as the top high school receiver in the country three years ago. Then they have Mark Ingram, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. A workhorse, Ingram ran for 1658 yards last year. But he also has Trent Richardson to take some of the load off his shoulders. Richardson is lightning to Ingram's thunder. With his speed, it would be a travesty for Saban not to use him more often to mix up the ground game. They have too many weapons and are too good not to repeat at SEC champs, if not national champs.

Miscellaneous
Team to Watch: Boise State If the Broncos are going to make it to the BCS National Title Game -- the first time a non-BCS school would make it -- then this is the year to do it. At #3 to start the season, there won't be a better opportunity. But in playing the waiting game, hoping Alabama or Ohio State loses (and at the same time hoping the voters don't catapult another team ahead of them) they absolutely must have a perfect regular season. Their conference schedule is full of cupcakes. If recent history is any indication, then Kellen Moore will throw for 300 yards every game as the Broncos will enjoy their cakewalk to a conference title. But those games will not matter if they don't survive the Week 1 showdown against Virginia Tech. For Chris Petersen and crew, this is their Super Bowl. If they can go out on primetime, national television, and kick the Hokies in the teeth, it will prove they are the real deal. In past years they were hurt because they didn't have on their resumé any Top-25 wins. This one would be against a Top-10 team. Then two weeks later they host Oregon State. They could very well win this game and add to their argument, but they could just as easily let Jacquizz Rodgers run circles around them and lose. I don't think a perfect record will be enough to convince the voters of putting the team into the national title game. But there has never been a better opportunity to do so.

(NOTE: Returning starter data from Phil Steele, stats accumulated from ESPN)

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Solid Use of Taxpayer Money

Steroids never seem to go away. This time the perpetrator just so happens to be the greatest pitcher of this generation in Roger Clemens. But it is not the fans who are calling him out. Nor is it journalists. Or even Bud Selig and his men. No, Clemens is being called upon by a federal grand jury, who is indicting the Rocket on six counts of lying at a 2008 Congressional hearing about steroid use in sports. The indictment specifies that Clemens lied about his use of performance-enhancing drugs, and if found guilty could face prison time ranging 15-21 months. But really, what would an admission, or I suppose here, a finding, of guilt really do to help America? Would the streets of our nation be safer knowing a liar is behind bars? This is yet another case of Congress getting involved with things that they have no business interfering with. And, sadly, this is becoming all-too-familiar a story.

Backtrack 16 months to March 2009. College football faced more criticism over the BCS format when undefeated Utah did not qualify for the national title game. Instead, one-loss teams Florida and Oklahoma did. This was certainly not the first time the BCS had come under scrutiny, and it won't be the last time either (Boise State fans might agree to this come January). At the time the country was in the middle of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Unemployment rates, according to the New York Times, were at their highest rates in twenty-five years. Yet what did Congress spending their time doing? They held a hearing over whether the BCS is "fair". Are you kidding me? The leader of the hearing, Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah (which explains why the meeting was held in the first place) claimed that the BCS format was unfair because all non-BCS teams were left out at a chance at millions of dollars. This just in: universities don't need more money. They have plenty of it. And forgive the voters for thinking that Florida and Oklahoma were more deserving of a title than Utah. After all, the Gators only beat #4 LSU, #6 Georgia, #25 South Carolina, #20 Florida State (in Tallahassee), and #1 Alabama by an average of 32 points, while the Sooners only averaged 54 points a game, scored 60+ points in each of their last five games, and beat five ranked opponents by an average of 29 points. Utah hammered BYU and edged out TCU, which is nice. And although they kicked 'Bama in the teeth in the Sugar Bowl, the computers picked the two best teams in college football. The meeting was a complete waste of time in which absolutely nothing was accomplished (unless you count spending more taxpayer money an accomplishment, but at this rate isn't that becoming commonplace?).

And that was only a one-day meeting.

The steroids investigation has been a years-long process, of which the Clemens indictment is a mere footnote.The infamous Mitchell Report named Clemens 80 times, but he was but one of 89 players mentioned who were suspected of using steroids or HGH. That was a 21-month long investigation. At the 2008 hearing, Clemens told congressman "I have never taken steroids or HGH." It was a meeting of he-said-he-said between the Rocket and his former trainer Brian McNamee, who claims he injected Clemens. At the time the big-wigs at the meeting were split down the middle as to who was lying and who was telling the truth. But in the grand scheme of things, it shouldn't matter. The meeting should not have happened because it was another case where the government should have been incredibly far away. would love to hear exactly why Congress has spent so much time and money on something like steroid use in sports. The players are only hurting themselves, and while they are tainting the history of America's pastime, that's not technically a crime. This is an issue that should be dealt with by Major League Baseball, the National Football League, and every other league individually. Yeah, using PEDs is cheating and hurts the integrity of sports. But let's face it: with or without steroids, pro sports are multi-billion dollar businesses. People will question the sanctity of it all, some might even stop following it, but no matter what money will be made, and isn't that the only thing the greedy politicians care about anyways? Meanwhile, AIG employees can ask for $182 billion in bailout money, yet all their big-wigs can afford their own private jets and mansions. Congress should worry a little less about cheating going on in sports, and cheating going on in the real world. Roger Clemens did not kill anyone. He did not steal anything from anyone. He did nothing illegal except (potentially) take steroids, which I'm pretty sure is not worthy of a Congressional hearing and federal grand jury investigation.

(And while on the topic of Clemens: It seems the public has already reached their verdict. Roger Clemens took steroids. But just remember one thing. Jose Canseco, a very-much-admitted steroid user, said through his lawyer, "I am not aware of any use of steroids by Roger." And to this point, most everything Canseco has said regarding players and steroid use has turned out to be correct (Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi have all admitted their use, while Juan Gonzalez was mentioned in the Mitchell Report). I'm not saying this makes Clemens innocent, but I don't think it can hurt his cause. Either way, Clemens was 100% correct when he said at the meeting, "No matter what we discuss here today, I am never going to have my name restored." Which means a man with 354 wins and over 3600 strikeouts will be left out of the Hall of Fame for the foreseeable future.)

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Officially Too Far

This year poor officiating and refereeing have cast a major shadow on many events. Jim Joyce infamously denied Armandos Galarraga a perfect game with his incorrect call in the 9th inning. Koman Coulibaly's call took away what would have been the game-winning goal in the USA's World Cup match against Slovenia. Most recently, umpire Bob Davidson made a questionable call on a hard hit ball that would have won a game for the Marlins, one which they ended up losing in extra innings. But this Sunday takes the cake without a doubt when the PGA took away Dustin Johnson's opportunity to win his first major at the PGA Championship. To recap, on the 72nd hole of the tournament, Johnson had a one stroke lead over Bubba Watson and (eventual champion) Martin Kaymer. Johnson hit his tee shot way right into the crowd into a seeming waste area trampled on by the thousands of fans over the course of the week. He hit his second shot left of the green, laid up, missed a chance to win, but forced a playoff... Or did he? Turns out the area was a "bunker" and since he grounded his club (or in layman's terms, his club touched the ground prior to hitting the ball) it was a two-stroke penalty. That means Johnson finished at -9, or two strokes off the lead, denied a chance to go to the playoff. While it must be admitted that the rules regarding bunkers at the uniquely-built Whistling Straits was made very clear, it still doesn't take away from the fact that the rules are ill-conceived.

Theoretically the Tour officials did the right thing and made the right call. According to the rules:

All areas of the course that were designed and built as sand bunkers will be played as bunkers (hazards), whether or not they have been raked. This will mean that many bunkers positioned outside of the ropes, as well some areas of bunkers inside the ropes, close to the rope line, will likely include numerous footprints, heel prints and tire tracks during the play of the Championship. Such irregularities of surface are a part of the game and no free relief will be available from these conditions.

Technically Johnson was in a bunker, and therefore he received a correct two-stroke penalty. That is not what I have a problem with. No, what I have a slight against is the fact that the Tour would be dumb enough to keep the course's rules and call a small waste area a bunker. During normal times, the rule makes sense, because there aren't thousands of people walking around the course. But during a PGA Tour event, officials should have stepped in and changed it so that it is merely a waste area. To have people walking in and standing on designated bunkers is beyond comprehension. Should Johnson have known the rules, seeing as how he was handed a rules sheet prior to the start of the tournament? Probably. Yet players get these sheets every week, and all of them probably say the same things. I'd put money on it that if you asked every player if they knew about the rule -- all 155 of them -- only a select few would have been aware that what Johnson was hitting from was considered a bunker. Frankly, you don't have bystanders standing in hazard areas. On the 72nd hole of a major that I'm a par away from winning, if I hit my tee shot there the last thing that would be on my mind is whether or not I'm on some ridiculously marked bunker with a flat area that has no lip or other transition from sand to grass that every known bunker in the world has. In the five minute span between the tee shot and the second shot, not one person from CBS mentioned the idea that it could have been a bunker. No fan probably would have guessed. Johnson's partner, Nick Watney, did not know. Why would Johnson or his caddy worry about such a thing, when the mere idea that fans would be standing in a bunker the size of a bed? Call me crazy but I think they were more worried about which club Johnson would hit and where it would go. Silly them, they probably thought the bunkers would look something like this instead of this! At a major tournament, and at any professional golf tournament for that matter, let the bunkers be bunkers, waste areas be waste areas, and for goodness sakes, if fans are allowed to walk and stand on it, it is NOT by any means a bunker.

However, the PGA Tour did decide that the area was a bunker, which brings me to my next point. How many other players that week hit their balls onto so-called "bunkers" with no penalty? John Daly wrote on his Twitter page: "So that means the sandy cart paths that I saw other players hit off of are also considered bunkers?!" He brings up a valid point. By the course's rules, a ton of players probably unknowingly hit their balls into bunkers and grounded their clubs. Yet how many of them were penalized for the apparent infraction? Probably not too many, that's for sure. If it was, say, Derek Lamely, who finished +5 and failed to make the cut, who had a similar shot on Thursday, would the officials have caught it? It just so happened that Johnson did it on the last hole when he had the lead, so his shot came under a lot more scrutiny by rules officials. And in this case that extra scrutiny cost a young man a shot at a major championship.

Bottom line is that while in the rule books the Tour made the right call (I guess), they should not have even put themselves into that situation, because they will undoubtedly be receiving some criticism for this... at least they are here at rjoycesports.blogspot.com. It's another case where the little, needless, nit-picky crap gets in the way of what's more important: the tension of what was quickly becoming a great Sunday. In a golf world where Tiger, Tiger's clubs, Tiger's golf balls, and Phil Mickelson make up people's interest, the sport needs an intense Sunday battle between a few young guns. Dustin Johnson is a solid player (he made the Ryder Cup, is ranked 24th in the world, and at 26 has the potential to have a good career), and someone that could potentially spike golf fans' interests. Taking away from a Sunday battle between him and two other players with little prior success (Watson and the 25-year old Kaymer) because of a technicality with the rules is not something the sport needs. If they never looked at it, no one would have questioned whether any violation occurred.

It's time that officials go back to what they were originally created to do: keep order in games. They are supposed to be a part of the game. They are not supposed to be a difference maker in them.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

The "What-If?" Game

Tiger Woods. Training camp no-shows/fat lards/issues. Tiger Woods again. Oh yeah, plus some baseball here and there (the Red Sox and Yankees played last weekend. It was the first time all year I actually cared about whether or not the Sox won for more than a microsecond.). Basically, it's a fairly quiet time. Thankfully pre-season football will be over in a few short weeks and the real thing will begin once again. But until then what is there to talk about for someone like me? Each of the last three weeks I'd written about the going-ons in the NFL, so I didn't want to do four consecutive weeks of that. If you want weekly football articles with the occasional sarcastic comment, may I recommend DJ Gallo's Offseason Pigskinpalooza on ESPN's Page 2. However, this week I've decided to play a game that never gets old, has no definitive answers, and never will. It's the "What-If" Game!! I picked a few of my own to discuss and asked my very loyal readers on FaceBook what they would like to hear (I expected at most 4 comments, so I was surprised when I ended up receiving twelve legitimate scenarios and an idiotic one). These have no rhyme or reason to them. They are merely what people wanted to see and whatever else happened to pop into my head.

Reader Questions:
"What if Phil Mickelson wasn't such a choke artist whenever he had a chance to become the world number one in golf?"
Well let's recap first in case you're one of the millions of people who don't follow golf. At the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational last week, world #1 Tiger Woods sucked. Not like a for-Tiger-he-struggled-but-for-everyone-else-it-was-okay performance. It was horrid for 4 days at a tournament he had won 7 times before, topped by a 77 on Sunday to finish +18. Phil Mickelson needed to finish in the Top 4 to overtake Woods' #1 world ranking. He started the day tied for 10th. A 78 later (as in one stroke worse than the abomination that was Tiger's final round), he finished tied for 46th. This marked yet another missed opportunity for fan favorite Mickelson to call himself the best golfer in the world. However, the reasoning behind this is legit. On Tuesday Mickelson admitted he has been battling with a form of arthritis in which the body's immune system attacks the joints and tendons. There were times before and after the US Open where he couldn't move because of the pain. I'm no doctor, but I have a sneaking suspicion this could attribute to the fact that he hasn't played consistently well.

"What if the [Red] Sox didn't have so many injuries?"
The Red Sox this year might have topped last year's Mets in terms of injuries, which is pretty bad. Basically every key member of the Sox has missed significant time. Jacoby Ellsbury just returned in the Yankee series after playing only ten games all year. Dustin Pedroia broke his foot two months ago and hasn't returned. Victor Martinez missed a few weeks with a broken thumb, and during that time Jason Varitek broke his foot. Mike Cameron has appeared in only 48 games, and his season is probably over. Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Dai-suck-e Matsuzaka, Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima have all spent time on the disabled list. And in the biggest blow yet, Kevin Youkilis is out for the year with a freak thumb injury. For die-hard Boston fans the names Daniel Nava, Darnell McDonald, and Eric Patterson are becoming everyday names. That shouldn't be happening. There was a point where I'm pretty sure the team was made up of more PawSox than Red Sox, which considering Pawtucket is 16 games under .500 and 19 games out of first place is bad. Somehow with all this the Sox are only 4.5 games out of first place in both the division and the wild card. That being said, one has got to think if all the pieces were together for 140-150 games, Boston would be first or second in the division. Using the impossible-to-calculate Wins Above Replacement (WAR stat) from baseball-reference.com -- which is pretty accurate here, considering half the Sox lineups are made up of mostly replacement players -- Pedroia, Youk, Ellsbury, Cameron and Martinez combined for a WAR of 3.7 last year. Getting more technical, Youkilis' was 6.4 and Pedroia's was 4.9. Basically the absence of those players alone cost the team 3-6 wins. Add in Beckett and Matsuzaka, who have missed about 18 starts total, and that's another 5 wins. Right there is more than enough to give the Sox the divison title. So, in short, if the Sox didn't have so many injuries, with the way they have played in spite of everything, they probably would have won the division title. I think it is too steep a hill to climb out of now, though.

"What if Ben Roethlisberger didn't sexually assault that girl and get himself suspended?"
Well firstly, I would like to acknowledge that he allegedly assaulted her (wink-wink) and that no charges were filed due to the fact that the security tapes were mysteriously "taped over". Don't go implying he's a rapist, because while he probably is, according to the laws of our amazing justice system, he isn't. Anyways, had he not been an idiot, the Steelers would be a heck of a lot better off after missing the playoffs last year. It looks as though Big Ben will miss only four games, as opposed to five or six, so that's helpful for Pittsburgh. Weeks 1-4 are at home versus Atlanta, at Tennessee, at Tampa, and home against Baltimore. Without Roethlisberger, the Steelers are going to have to rely heavily on the running game (as seen in last year's game against Baltimore, where Dennis Dixon barely threw the ball), which struggled mightily at times last year. And considering the Falcons, Titans, and Ravens were all top-10 in rushing defense last year, it suddenly puts a helluva lot of pressure on Rashard Mendenhall's shoulders. With him, Pittsburgh would be able to have a balanced running and passing attack, but instead the defenses will most certainly load the box with seven or eight men and make Byron Leftwich, Dennis Dixon, or (shudder) Charlie Batch beat them. Basically, Mendenhall and the defense need to play out of their minds. If Roethlisberger wasn't such an idiot, the Steelers would have started off 3-1 at worst. Now I'd say 2-2 is much more likely.

"What if LeBron James never wins a championship in his career?"
This is probably the question that is most up for debate. There very little doubt that there has ever been a player with the athleticism, strength, size, and speed that James has. He is unstoppable, but could never get over the hump and win a ring by himself in Cleveland. Now he's teamed up with Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, and an increasing list of very solid veterans in Miami to form a very scary team on paper. One would guess within five years the team will have won two or three titles. But then there is always the question of whether the egos of James and Wade clash in crunch time, can the team hold it together? However, that isn't the question. If James does not win a title, I would probably cry of joy the day he retires, for there is no one -- absolutely no one -- I hate more in sports. This summer he even managed to surpass A-Rod and Tom Brady. In terms of his legacy, that's an interesting debate. Dan Marino never won a Super Bowl, yet people put him in the discussion of greatest quarterbacks ever. But basketball is different. Bill Russell is a top-5 all-time player because he won so many rings. Michael Jordan is undoubtedly the greatest player ever, and he won six titles. Would we revere his competitive drive as much if he only won once or twice? Magic and Bird won multiple titles, as did Kareem. John Stockton, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, Elgin Baylor, and Patrick Ewing never won a title, and while they are all Hall of Famers without question, none are in the running for greatest of all-time. In the NBA, championships and legacies go hand in hand. Without at least a few rings, James can be the greatest skilled player of all-time, but it won't matter. He will not surpass the Magics, the Birds, heck, even the Kobes of NBA greatness.

"What if the Mets didn't suck male human reproductive genitalia?" (So I might have edited that one slightly)
Well, quite simply, if the Mets were good, they would probably be third in the NL East, behind Atlanta or Philadelphia, because while they have the parts, they don't seem to have the results to show for them. Theoretically a team with David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, and Francisco Rodriguez would be very good, yet the Metropolitans had two epic September collapses in '07 and '08, were riddled with injuries last year, and simply aren't very good this year, being 56-56 through Monday and 7.5 out of first place.

"What if the [Red] Sox never traded Jeff Bagwell or Hanley Ramirez?"
This is probably my favorite question. In 1990 the Red Sox traded top prospect Bagwell to Houston for 36-year-old relief pitcher Larry Andersen (whose Phillies' jersey, might I add, I am a proud owner of) in what is considered one of the worst trades in baseball history. Had he stayed a Red Sox player, he wouldn't have even had a chance to play until 1993, when Wade Boggs bolted for the Evil Empire. Then if he transitioned from third base to first, like he did in Houston, he would have had to compete with Mo Vaughn, who from 1993-98 was the most productive first baseman in the American League. He would probably not have hit 449 homers and driven in 1500+ runs. Then there would have been the dark cloud on the Boston organization with Bagwell's association with steroids. Now, there is no proof that Bagpipes ever took steroids, but merely being mentioned can taint everything a player ever did. I don't think he did take them, but perception is everything, and the perception of a few ill-advised souls can change everything.

As for Ramirez, if he isn't traded, the Red Sox do not win the World Series in 2007. He and Anibal Sanchez were traded to Florida in 2006 in return for Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, and Guillermo Mota. In '07 Beckett went 20-7 with an earned run average of 3.27, and in the postseason he went 4-0 with an ERA around 1.50. Lowell, meanwhile, hit .324 while amassing almost 200 hits and driving in 120 runs. He was also the World Series MVP. As much as I loved Bill Mueller, getting rid of him before the '06 season was best, because Lowell was exponentially more productive than Mueller and his bad knees. As good a player as Ramirez is, Boston would not have been spoiled with another World Series title.

Among other ridiculous questions.... "What if Randy Jackson played in the MLB?" and "What if OJ got back into the NFL? :o"
Randy Jackson would suck as a pitcher or a fielder. Probably not as bad as him or him, but not much better. OJ, on the other hand, would sign with the Redskins and compete with Larry Johnson, Clinton Portis, and Willie Parker for the spot of "least sucky old running back." However, since Mike Shanahan hasn't used a one-back system basically since Terrell Davis retired, all four will get playing time. Simpson will be the 20th-22nd running back taken in ESPN Fantasy Leagues because of this, but he'll be on Matthew Berry's "Hate List" for Weeks 1, 2, and 4 because his opponents were top-10 rushing defenses last year. But look on the bright side -- he'd probably be more effective than LaDainian Tomlinson.

"What if sports never existed?"
Lots of things would change. I would spend all my time on my laptop and watching re-runs of Seinfeld. Brett Favre would spend his summer days mowing his ridiculously huge lawns on his John Deere riding mower in his worn-out Wrangler jeans and dirty cap. Michael Jordan would spend all his time at casinos to feed his competitive drive. Tiger Woods would be a bachelor having sex with every possible woman. Kurt Warner would have spent the '90s bagging at his local grocery store. No one would know who Elmer Flick and George Stone were. And no one would care about the WNBA. See, life as we know it would be drastically different.

"What if [Mark] McGwire gets in the Hall of Fame?"
It would be astronomical if McGwire, or any admitted steroid user, got into Cooperstown, seeing as it's not happening anytime soon. The writers, who vote on who gets into the Hall, have made it quite clear they will not vote for anyone who has juiced, which is why McGwire only received 23.7% of votes (75% is required for election) in 2010. That would mean that Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds, among scattered others, would have no shot at getting into the Hall. While I understand the idea that they cheated and should be left out, a huge piece of baseball history is being ignored -- the home run king, two other 600-home run hitters, a 3000-hit member, and a 300-game winner. As long as Pete Rose is left out, no steroid user should ever be allowed in. But if someone like Bonds or McGwire gets in, then it opens up the floodgates for a whole group of juicers that could taint the honor of being in the hallowed grounds of Cooperstown.

My Questions:
"What if David Tyree didn't put a bottle of super glue on his helmet make the ridiculous helmet catch in Super Bowl XLII?"
It is perhaps behind only the Immaculate Reception and "The Catch" in terms of fame (and for New England fans, infamy). David Tyree, the 4th string receiver, making the unbelievable catch against his helmet as Rodney Harrison is taking him down, completing a play where the refs missed about 35 holding calls Eli Manning slithered away from a group of Pats defenders and heaved the ball into the air. A few plays later it was Manning-to-Burress and the mighty Patriots were undefeated no more. If he doesn't catch the ball, it is 4th-and-5 with :59 to go. Manning to that point was 14-for-22 on throws of 10 yards or less, averaging 8.2 yards per reception according to my research. In the 4th quarter he was 5-for-7 and averaged 10 yards a catch. So I believe New York would have gotten the first down and gone into Patriots' territory. From there, however, I think the drive would have stalled, seeing as how Eli was only 1-of-8 on deep throws to that point. The Patriots' defense holds, they go undefeated, Tom Brady is the golden boy (it's disgusting isn't it?), David Tyree ends his career in anonymity, and Mercury Morris finally goes away for good.

(On the note of Tyree retiring, I think it is stupid how he signed a one-day contract to retire a Giant. His career stats (54 receptions, 650 yards) amassed over a five-year season are crappy for a good receiver in one year, let alone half a decade. One-day contracts are meant for Emmitt Smith, Jerry Rice, sure-fire Hall of Famers who are among the greatest at their positions. Robert Horry did not get a one-day contract from the Lakers, Spurs, or Rockets for his numerous clutch playoff shots. Dexter Jackson was the MVP of Super Bowl XXXVII for Tampa Bay, yet he's out of the NFL without a one-day contract. I understand the significance of the Helmet Catch, but I don't think it's grounds for something like a one-day contract, because if he hadn't been so lucky, no one would have known his name. One-day contracts are for established skill players. Sorry)

"What if the Braves or Pirates had scouted Willie Mays?"
That's right. Willie Mays could have been in the same outfield as either Hank Aaron or Roberto Clemente. Scary thought, eh? From James Hirsch's biography Willie Mays: The Life, The Legend:

Some scouts blew their chance for immortality simply because they couldn't judge talent. In 1949, a Pittsburgh Pirate scout... Piper Davis approached [Birmingham Black Barons' owner Tom Hayes] in a hotel lobby in New Orleans.
"Give us $2000 and you can have that kid," [Hayes] said.
"Nah," the scout said. "Even if he got him, we'd make a pitcher out of him"

Could you imagine that outfield? If I were the Pirates manager I would have put Mays in left center, Clemente in right center, and had the third outfielder stand behind second. That would easily be the best outfield in baseball, even with only two out there, and it would be as good or better than Aaron and Eddie Mathews batting-wise. Yikes.

The Boston Braves had an even better shot at The Say Hey Kid. One scout, Bill Maughn, absolutely loved Mays, but could not sign him until he graduated from school. He wrote to the Braves' front office "here is the best standout prospect available in the nation." After waiting a year for Willie to graduate school another scout was sent out, Mays went just 1-for-8 in a doubleheader, and no offer was ever made. As good as Mays and Clemente would have been, Mays and Aaron would have been better. That's 1415 home runs, 7054 hits, and 4200 runs batted in. That's 49 All-Star Game selections and 15 Gold Gloves. Along with Mathews in the lineup and Warren Spahn on the mound, that team would have been damn near unbeatable. The dogfights the Yankees and Braves would have had throughout the '50s would have been ridiculous. And Mays would have more than one World Series ring, while Aaron would have had his. Betcha that scout felt pretty damn stupid, eh?

What if Barry Bonds threw out Sid Bream?
It is one of the more famous baseball plays of the last twenty years. Bottom 9, 1992 NLCS Game 7. The Braves' Francisco Cabrera gets a basehit to left. The tying run scored, and charging around third was Sid Bream, who would score to win the game, and for the third consecutive year the division-winning Pirates were denied a trip to the World Series. But if Bream is out, then what happens? If the Pirates go to the World Series, Bonds and other starters might stay in Pittsburgh (between 1992 and '93 seven starters left). Bonds might not get into steroids, and as Bill Simmons' wrote a few years back, "retire with a respectable 550 home runs and go quietly into Cooperstown". The Pirates might have remained relevant for a few more years instead of being a laughingstock since that fateful night in Atlanta. (Random trivia question: What 25-year-old went 8-1 in 13 starts with a 2.15 ERA for the '92 Pirates? Tim Wakefield)

What if Roberto Clemente's plane was looked at closely?
In one of the most tragic sports stories ever, Roberto Clemente died on New Year's Eve 1972 when his plane crashed going to Nicaragua, with the intention of helping victims of an earthquake. Reading David Maraniss's Clemente, the DC-7 that Clemente boarded that day was in desperate need of engine replacement. A few weeks prior the pilot of the plane, Arthur Rivera, was told by an FAA officer that one was necessary, however the officer "did not issue a condition notice requiring that engine repairs be made before the next flight, instead marking 'satisfactory' and 'no further action required' on the FAA inspection forms." When recommended that he take a test run, there was one problem: Rivera did not know how to fly the plane. It was no wonder the plane went down. But what if that plane does not take off? From a baseball standpoint, Clemente already had 3000 hits (exactly), and at 37 he probably could have added a good 200-300 more. Today he is in the discussion for best ever all-around player. With the extra few years, there would be no doubt -- the best ever players would be Henry Aaron, William Mays, and Roberto Clemente.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Darrelle Revis Has More Leverage Than You, And He Knows It!

Vegas oddsmakers start early in guessing who will win the Super Bowl. Perhaps too early. Because shortly after the Super Bowl the New York Jets were a 14-1 shot to lift the Lombardi Trophy this February, and as of May 3rd they were at 10-1. But there's an issue with these relatively high odds. Vegas included the fact that the league's best defensive player, Darrelle Revis, was actually going to play, instead of deciding to hold-out for what looks like to be a very long time. Revis wants to be the league's highest paid cornerback. The Jets do not want to pay him $17 million a year. Both sides have legitimate arguments, which is why little to no progress has been made since January. Ultimately, though, it is Revis who will win out and get what he wants, because he is the one with all the leverage. If the Jets want a shot at winning a title, they can't do it without him.

There is no denying Revis's importance. He makes the league's best receivers look insignificant. Last year he took on six of the best in the NFL, and none could survive the wrath of Revis Island:
  • Andre Johnson (best receiver in the game): 4 catches, 35 yards
  • Randy Moss* (one of the top 5-10 greatest receivers ever): 9 catches, 58 yards, TD
  • Marques Colston (should have been a Pro Bowler): 2 catches, 33 yards
  • Terrell Owens (still dominant when he wants to be): 3 catches, 13 yards
  • Mike Sims-Walker (sleeper WR of 2009): 3 catches, 49 yards, TD
  • Roddy White (Pro Bowler): 4 catches, 33 yards
*in 2 games

The fact that Revis was not Defensive Player of the Year was an aberration, even more so because another cornerback, Green Bay's Charles Woodson, won the award. He is the best corner in the league. And although New York also has Antonio Cromartie, who is a solid defensive back, he is probably more well known for his 109-yard return or his one-handed interception of three years ago. Or some of you might even get him mistaken with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, a cornerback for Arizona. Yeah, he's made a Pro Bowl, but he is not the playmaker Revis is. Facing off against Moss and Wes Welker, knee problems or not, twice a season -- plus seeing the likes of Sidney Rice, Greg Jennings/Donald Driver, Calvin Johnson, and Andre Johnson -- Revis will be needed. He's too much of a difference maker for Gang Green to survive without him for a long period of time. Revis knows this. The Jets probably have more pressure on them to perform than any team this season. It will only be a matter of time before the front office has no choice but to give in and give Revis the money he wants. It could be any of a number of things: an injury, a slow start (Baltimore, New England, Miami to start the year), pressure from places unknown. In terms of importance, Revis Island has all the leverage.

Then there's the part where the Jets shoved a Shaq-sized foot deep in their own mouths. On Tuesday coach Rex Ryan told the Associated Press, "You're taking the best corner in the league out of your defense." The front office has repeatedly given Revis the same title. So basically the team is willing to call Revis the best at his position, but they won't give him the money that goes along with the accolades. Seems a little unfair to me. I can see where the Jets would be unwilling to pay him $17 million a year, which would be $1 million more than the Raiders' Nnamdi Asomugha, because that is extremely high (blame Al Davis for that, because the top cornerback would probably be around $10 million without that crazy old man). If Oakland wasn't paying that amount, this probably would not be an issue. But that is not the case. The best cornerback in the league deserves to be the highest paid cornerback in the league. The Jets themselves called Revis the best, so they should have acknowledged that they are willing to pay him the most. This is in a lot of ways their own fault. If they kept their mouths shut, or at the very least if general manager Mike Tannenbaum and his front office did, then they would have more leverage in this situation. Oops.

There's no telling when Darrelle Revis will agree to a contract. It could be tomorrow, it could be during the pre-season, it could be in Week 5. Who knows. However, the longer the Jets argue and fight over money with someone who has a lot more power than them, the more detrimental it will be to the team. And for a team who is expected to challenge Justin Beiber's wannabe and the Patriots for the AFC East title, abandoning Revis Island and letting receivers roam free will most certainly stall the Jets' engines.