Blast Back to the Past: A Look At My March Baseball Predictions

Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants. They were merely one of many, many teams, players and managers to make me look incredibly dumb with my March predictions. But, hey, I can't be right all the time. Now that all wthe awards have been handed out, and the 2010 season is now 100% behind us, we'll look back and grade the predictions based on a scale of -3 to 3, then go and give myself a numerical score that will judge just how truly stupid I was eight months ago.

1) The New York Yankees will repeat as World Series champions. Made it to the ALCS and were the World Series favorites, but lost because their starters couldn't pitch. Score: -1

2) The Phillies will make it to their 3rd straight World Series. Again, made it to the NLCS, but their bats went silent against the outstanding San Francisco pitching rotation. Score: -1

3) Curtis Granderson will become a superstar. In his first series against the hated Red Sox he hit a game-winning home run to get off to a fairly good start. However, he missed nearly all of May and could never get going. Hit only .247 with 24 home runs and 67 runs batted in. Score: -2

4) In a related note, the Tigers will realize that replacing Granderson with Damon will be an issue. Granderson had three times as many home runs (24 to Damon's eight), a higher slugging percentage (.455 to .401), one more stolen base, a far better WAR (3.6 to 1.9) and his UZR (ultimate zone rating) was 5.3 to Damon's 0.6. In a related note, the Tigers decreased in wins due to an offense that couldn't do anything without Miguel Cabrera and went from a second place finish in 2009 to a third place finish in 2010. Score: 2

5) Steven Strasburg will be average at best this season. Alright, if this kid's arm heals and returns to full strength, he'll be a star. A 5-3 record (with zero run support), 92 strikeouts in 68 innings (including 14 in his major league debut... though that was against the Pirates) and a sub-3 earned run average. It's too bad he had Tommy John Surgery and will miss most of next year, too. Even though his ERA in August was above 5, i'll still say he far exceeded my expectations. Score: -1

6) Roy Halladay will be fine in the regular season, but come the playoffs, he'll be in for a rude awakening. He was a unanimous choice for the NL Cy Young Award, with a 22-10 record and 2.44 ERA. And he threw the second no-hitter in postseason history. Still, in the NLCS he wasn't anything special, splitting two games with Tim Lincecum. However, I think Charlie Manuel messed up here. Halladay should have pitched on short rest and started Game 5, not Game 6. Instead Joe Blanton couldn't make it out of the fifth inning and the Phillies went down 3-1 in the series. So that isn't Halladay's fault (though he should have demanded the ball... an ace should when his team is facing a 3-1 hole). Score: 0

7) Albert Pujols will win another MVP. He finished second, so I wasn't too far off. All it took for someone to take the award away from the Machine was for Joey Votto to go after the Triple Crown. I'll give myself a point. Score: 1

8) Ivan Rodriguez, Adam Kennedy, and Willy Taveras may be names, but it won't stop the Nationals from finishing last in the NL East. 68-93, 28 games out of first place, 10 games behind the fourth place Mets. I-Rod played 111 games, Kennedy 135 and Taveras only 27. Still, something tells me Taveras' .274 average, eight homers and 128 RBIs (in seven seasons) wouldn't have made a difference. Score: 3

9) 3 of these 5 managers will be fired by August 1st: Manny Acta, Dave Trembley, Dusty Baker, Lou Piniella, Cito Gaston. Alright, so Dusty Baker didn't lose his job, considering the Reds won the division. Dave Trembley was canned by Baltimore on June 4th. Piniella and Gaston either announced their retirement (Gaston) or actually retired before the season ended (Piniella), but I don't think either was pressured to do it, but both organizations probably saw it coming before August 1st. Score: 1

10) Texas will have one of the best offenses in baseball, but will be a .500 team.

The team led the majors in batting average and hits, was fifth in RBIs and on-base percentage and struck out the third-fewest times. Nothing new. However the team finished with 90 wins, in large part because of the efforts of CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis on the mound (then Cliff Lee until the World Series). The offense was just as good as past years. I just didn't see the pitching coming around like it did. Score: -2

11) With the addition of Chone Figgins, Ichiro will score 120 runs. Wanna know how terrible the Mariners offense was this year? Only four players played more than 95 games. Figgins hit a dreadful .258 -- and it was third highest on the team. The fact that Ichiro scored 74 runs is a freakin' miracle. Score: -4 (yes, the scale is -3 to 3. That's how bad a prediction it was)

12) ESPN won't be the same without Peter Gammons. Tim Kurkjian is nice, and so is Buster Olney. But Gammons was irreplaceable. Baseball Tonight was considerably less interesting without him there. Score: 3

13) The only teams capable of beating the Yankees in a playoff series are the Red Sox and Mariners. I said this because of their pitching. And that is exactly how the Yankees lost -- they ran into a team with strong pitching. Too bad it wasn't the fairly disappointing Red Sox rotation (that means you, John Lackey), or the Mariners (who did finish in the top 12 of the league in ERA, opponent batting average, earned runs and allowed the third fewest walks). So I knew what it would take to beat the Yankees. Again, I just never thought it would be the Rangers who had the staff. Score: 0

14) Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum, and Jair Jurrjens will be the NL Cy Young candidates. Josh Johnson had a streak of 13 starts without allowing more than two earned runs. Had he not been hurt in the second half, he would have ran away with it. Ubaldo Jimenez won 15 (not a misprint) games before the All-Star break. He should have easily won. However, he only won four games the rest of the year and disappeared down the stretch, even as the Rockies challenged once again for a playoff berth. Lincecum had a good season by most standards (16-10, 231 strikeouts) and will probably finish fourth or fifth in voting. Jurrjens was hurt for much of the season, could only make 20 starts and had a terrible WHIP (1.39).  Roy Halladay was the unanimous choice. Score: 2

15) The NL West rides on the arm of Brandon Webb. Webb didn't make a start, Arizona had all sorts of pitching problems (towards the bottom of the league in ERA, batting average against and strikeouts). And the D'Backs never really contended. Score: -1

16) These will be this year's playoff teams: AL - New York, Minnesota, Seattle, Boston (wild card) NL - Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Francisco, Atlanta (wild card) Got five out of eight teams right, and give me a break on the Sox (if they didn't have so many injuries they would have made it fairly easily). However, that more than gets cancelled out by the Mariners.... oh, the Mariners... Score: 1

17) The Royals will be 2nd in the AL Central on May 1st. By June 30th they will be last. Hey! For once the Royals started the way they finished: a terrible team! They were five games out and third on May 1st, and were already out of it by June 30th. Score: 1

18) Joe Mauer, Lance Berkman, and Derek Jeter, all in their last year of their contracts, will stay. Mauer signed an enormous deal right away, and it looks as though Jeter is going to stay a Yankee (it has to happen). Berkman, though, was traded to the Bronx. Two out of three ain't bad. Score: 2

19) Ozzie Guillen will feud with Jake Peavy at least twice. Peavy only started 17 games and went 7-6. Not worth $15 million by any stretch of the imagination. Unfortunately, no feuds, though. Score: -2

20) The NL East will be the best race. The Yankees and Rays had the tightest race, but it was a well-known fact that whoever finished second would get the wild-card. That goes out the window. You could make a claim for the NL West, but for the entire second half people were wondering if the Phillies were stumbling and if the Braves were for real. Then the roles flipped and led to the best long-term race. Score: 2

21) The AL West will be the 2nd best race. The Rangers had a stranglehold on the division. After July 25th their lead was never fewer than seven and a half games. Score: -2

22) The Pirates will trade Zach Duke and/or Andrew McCutchen. Duke went 8-15 and had an ERA of 5.71. McCutchen was the lone bright spot. Both were on the team all year. However, literally a minute before I was about to hit "Publish", I saw that Duke was traded to Arizona. So technically it wasn't during the season, but he was traded. Originally I was going to give myself a score of -3. New Score: 1

23) With José Reyes back, David Wright will once again hit 25 home runs. Wright hit 29 home runs. Reyes played in 133 games. Score: 3

24) This is the penultimate year for Mariano Rivera. Rivera had 33 saves this year, but have no one in line to replace him, as Joba Chamberlain proved nothing. Looks like Mo will have to go past 2011. Score: -1

25) Evan Longoria will win AL MVP. Longoria was very quiet. He had a solid year (.294, 22 homers, 104 RBIs), but was never amazing. Josh Hamilton ran away with MVP honors in convincing fashion. Score: -2

26) JA Happ and Jayson Werth will launch into superstardom. Happ only appeared in 13 games due to injury, and Werth struggled early but finished very strong, hitting a shade under .300 with 27 HRs and 85 RBIs. He finished eighth in MVP voting, and one of the most sought-after free agents this summer. Score: 1

27) Daisuke Matsuzaka will milk another injury in Boston. Matsuzaka made two trips to the disabled list for a right forearm strain. It was probably legitimate. Probably. But still, he has not been a "bust" but by no means has he been worth the billion and a half dollars or whatever it was that the Sox spent to get him. Score: 1

28) Managers of the Year: Don Wakamatsu, Bobby Cox. Wakamatsu was fired, Cox probably would have had it not been for the surprising Padres and Reds. The Twins' Ron Gardenhire and the Padres' Bud Black won the award. Score: -2

29) Brandon Webb and Garrett Atkins will be Comeback POY: Webb made one short-lived start. Atkins played in 44 games. Maybe I was a year too soon with these picks. Francisco Liriano and Tim Hudson won the award. Score: -3

30) The Marlins and Braves will be 2 of the NL's 5 best teams. Well, the Braves were. The Marlins finished two games under .500. Score: 1

31) Alfonso Soriano is no longer in his prime. By a long shot. Hit a nice and pathetic .258. Yeah, he had 24 homers and 79 RBIs, but he also had nearly as many strikeouts (123) as hits (128). Score: 3

32) Adam Lind will be the Blue Jays offense. Jose Bautista hit 54 home runs in leading of the most powerful offenses ever (in terms of home run hitting at least). Lind hit a dreadful .237 and hit only 23 home runs. Score: -3

33) Matt Holliday will redeem himself for last year's error. My boy hit .312, 28 homers and 103 RBIs, winning a Silver Slugger Award and going to the All-Star game. Although St. Louis didn't make the playoffs, Holliday had his fifth consecutive solid season. Score: 3

34) Brad Lidge makes a triumphant comeback this year. Well he wasn't 48-for-48 like he was in 2008, but his ERA also wasn't 7.21 like it was in 2009. He had a respectable 27 saves in 32 chances, striking out 52 in 45 2/3 innings of work and lowering the earned run average to below three. Not a triumphant comeback, but a good rebound nonetheless. Score: 1

35) Chan Ho Park will be the next Chien Ming Wang for the Yankees. Park went 2-1 with an ERA over five before being relegated to the minors traded to Pittsburgh. He was about as effective as Wang was in 2009. Score: 2

36) Griffey, Edmonds, and Vlad go out quietly. Griffey retired with a day of sadness around baseball, but nothing extraordinary. Edmonds played in only 86 games and drove in 23 runs. Vlad, though, had a huge resurgence, hitting .300 and surpassing 100 runs batted in. Score: 2

37) In his 1st at-bat of interleague play, Joba Chamberlain gets hit by a 95 mph fastball. Seeing as he wasn't a starter, he didn't get an at-bat this year. But I still dislike him. A lot. Score: 0

38) Tim McCarver says approximately 1.5 idiotic things per inning. Just how dumb is Tim McCarver? Before the World Series, partner Joe Buck was on Pardon the Interruption on ESPN doing an interview live. McCarver walked by and, oblivious of the camera or the fact that Buck was talking to it, smacked Buck on the shoulder and started talking to him. Then, when the games were actually played, here were some of my favorites: "The Rangers aren't hitting because the Giants are pitching."

"He's been throwing up some bad dreams to the Texas Rangers." Score: 3

 

39) Manny will say it's his last season in LA, then it's not, then it is again at least 10 times. Well seeing as he was a pain in Joe Torre's ass and ended the year an unproductive member of the White Sox (what's that? unproductive and White Sox are redundancies? Good to know). Score: 2

40) Minka Kelly is shown on camera at least five times per game. So I must say that I barely saw the Yankees play at all this year, but I'm going to assume that she was on at least occasionally. Plus, I need a few points. Score: 1

41) On a related note, Kelly will put the same curse on Jeter that Kate Hudson put on A-Rod. Jeter had his worst year since he was a rookie (though he still won a Gold Glove that was totally unjustified), and I am 100% attributing it to the lovely Minka Kelly. Score: 3

42) After breaking the single-season passing, rushing, and receiving records by Week 6 of the NFL season, Tim Tebow signs with a contender, wins MVP in the LCS and World Series, and in doing so makes his case for the Baseball Hall of Fame. This will be followed by Tebow returning to the NFL and winning the Super Bowl on a last second 76-yard touchdown run. It was a pipe-dream, but I shouldn't be surprised that Tebow didn't do all this. After all, he's humble. He simply didn't want to take the spotlight away from the already-unpopular baseball players (and by unpopular, I mean far less popular than NFL players, unless your name is Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols or Derek Jeter). Score: -3

Although it didn't seem like it, my score was a 16. I don't really know how good that is, because I couldn't figure out an accurate scoring system that would figure out how well I really did. So take from that score what you will. And in reality I probably -- okay, I knowingly -- gave myself an extra point here or there to boost my score that otherwise would have been shockingly terrible.

Still Sore Losers

There may not be a more tortured fan base than Cleveland. Not having won a championship of any sort since 1964, the city has come close numerous times, only to have their hopes shattered by some terrible play or occurrence. They even have names for all of them, which need no clarification (in fact, going into detail may or may not get you shot if you are anywhere near East Cleveland). "The Shot", "The Fumble" , "The Drive", The Decision. Just the mere mentioning of some names make the city collectively cringe. Jose Mesa, Art Modell, LeBron James. One would think that a fan base like that deserved some sort of success. But looking at how Cleveland fans have conducted themselves since the Decision, especially after the incident that occurred after the Browns' overtime loss to the Jets last week, it made me realize something: those fans don't deserve it.

To recap, the quietly dangerous Browns lost a key fumble late in overtime to New York, then four Cleveland defenders let Santonio Holmes weave through them like they were tackling dummies en route to the end zone. Among those in the stands was a Jets fan who lived in Cleveland, but was born in New York. He decided to take his eight-year-old son to the game, the boy's first ever NFL game. Being New York fans, they wore Jets jerseys. The game was fine, but afterwards, according to the boy's mother, Cleveland fans began throwing food and yelling at the boy and his father. Then, one drunken idiot tackled the boy to the ground. Not accidentally pushed or ran into him. But actually full on tackled the kid, leaving him with some scratches and a few tears.

Are you serious? A little kid?

Look, I'm as big a sports fan as anyone. As I was watching the Steelers get manhandled by New England last week I was getting angry at the television. But it's just a football game. Sports are meant to be a distraction from life. They aren't supposed to get this real. No amount of "fandom", no amount of alcohol, can be used as a defense in this case. No matter how passionate a fan you are, does the game really matter that much? Win or lose, you still live your life just the same. The only difference between winning and losing is -- or should be -- a few minutes of being annoyed or happy. Of course there are exceptions. When the Browns left Cleveland fans had a right to be angry and hold a grudge against Art Modell. Conversely, when New Orleans won the Super Bowl last year the entire city earned the right to party. But short of something drastic, there is absolutely no reason to be so emotional to the point where you lose self-control.

And in this case, the lack of self-control and common decency was disgusting. It would have been bad enough had this happened to some drunken Jets fan who was going around bragging about the win. But no, it happened to be a father who was minding his own business after a nice afternoon enjoying football. And he was with his kid. Kids are off-limits. If you feel the need to harass or make fun of a little kid for being a Jets fan, you are sick. But to go all the way and tackle an eight year old is the lowest of lows. People who do that are scumbags. It shouldn't have to be said that kids are off-limits. The fact that it needs to be shows how insanely stupid Cleveland fans have become.

Could it be that I'm being a little unfair for judging an entire city's fan base off of a group of idiots merely because of one isolated -- although sickening -- incident? You could make that argument. But ever since the Decision, fans have been nutty. Just look at the night James said he was leaving. Fans burned a jersey in the streets. Extra police was called in to handle crowds. Fans disowned LeBron, like he was some sort of monster. He's a basketball player. Obviously he handled the situation very poorly. He should have told the organization before that he wasn't coming back. He should not have announced it in a one-hour, nationally televised event. It was a backstabbing move. But do you really think the city would have reacted any differently had he done it via a press release at noon on a random Tuesday? I don't think so. The jerseys still would have been burned. The police would have still been called upon and fans would still be incredibly bitter.

I get it that LeBron inspired hope in the city. He was born there, he was raised there, he was supposed to give the city something to cheer for.  But it was entirely his right to leave Cleveland. Nowhere under the term "unrestricted free agent" is there some magic fine print that says "except you have to stay with your original team." Do I think he made the right choice? No. He handled the entire process poorly and he chose the wrong team. But that doesn't give the city a right to go berserk. It doesn't give them a right to go "Oh, woe is us!" It doesn't give them a right to act however they want. Most people are expecting the Cavaliers to finish well below .500 this year. The Indians are still rebuilding. The Browns are perennially terrible. And to be honest, that's exactly what this fan base deserves right now.

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar once said "You can't win unless you learn how to lose." You would think that after all these years, after all these heartbreaks, the city of Cleveland would have learned by now. I guess not, and until they do, I hope they never get to experience success. They aren't ready for it.

Ten Weeks, Four Questions

The NFL season has passed the mid-way point, and it is time for a valid question to become clear. Who is the best team in football? In past years there was a clear answer. In 2007 it was the Patriots. In 2008 it was the Steelers and Titans. Last year the Colts and Saints. But this year? Oh how it is different. Every week we learn something new. We think things are finally beginning to settle down. Then the next week all that comes crashing down, and we have an entirely new set of "best teams." But this week, with many high-profile and divisional games, things will begin to pan out and shape the rest of the season. Many questions will be answered. Here are the four big questions to be answered starting Thursday night.

Is the AFC or NFC the early favorite for the Super Bowl? 
Thursday night sees quite arguably the the AFC's best team against the NFC's best team when the Falcons host the Ravens. Baltimore's defense is still one of the top five in the game, but they are beginning to show signs of weakness and age. They give up 104 yards a game on the ground, and face Michael Turner, who is coming off his best game of the year against the Buccaneers. The pass defense is fourth in the game, but they also haven't seen anyone nearly as good as the Matt Ryan-to-Roddy White connection. Meanwhile, the Falcons defense can't stop the pass, and Joe Flacco isn't quite an elite quarterback, but he's good enough for 250 yards and three  scores. Right now these two are considered the best in their conference. If one team kicks the crap out of the other, it could be a good indication as to which conference has the upper hand, and has the apparent advantage for Super Bowl XLV in Dallas.

Who is the best team in the AFC?
The Jets had this title to start the year, but lost it after a pathetic Week 1 showing offensively against Baltimore. If you asked two or three weeks ago, it was the Steelers. Too bad they couldn't show up on Halloween against the Saints, then needed a defensive stand in the red zone to stave off a comeback by the woeful Bengals. Their pass defense has looked like an issue as of late. Then the title went back to the Jets, who then got shut out by Green Bay and needed a collapse by the Lions to win in overtime. Then it moved to the Patriots. They didn't just lose to the Browns. They got the living crap kicked out of them. Now the Ravens have the title, which is at stake Thursday. If the Ravens lose, the title is once again up for grabs. And the 6-2 Steelers face the 6-2 Patriots Sunday. Expect this to be the game of the week. The Steelers secondary against a Patriots receiving corps that always seems to do well because Tom Brady is under center. The Patriots always-shaky secondary against the league's best quarterback at keeping plays alive and making cornerbacks cover receivers for six, seven, eight seconds. I am expecting a very close game. And the playoffs should be among the most exciting in years (at least on the AFC side), with the potential for the Jets, Patriots, Steelers and Ravens to play each other in some order for spots in the conference title game.

What will the AFC South look like?
The 4-4 Texans play the 4-4 Jaguars. The 5-3 Colts play the Bengals. The 5-3 Titans travel to Miami to play the Dolphins. For the Colts, this could be an upset game. Think about it: they just lost a tough road game against the Eagles, they are playing a 2-6 Bengals team at home and next week they travel to New England to take on a team that has perennially beaten them in the past. They need the Patriots win to keep pace with the rest of the conference. And they are beat to hell, with their receivers being Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and whoever else they could find off the streets of Indianapolis. Look for the Bengals to take their solid fourth quarter against the Steelers and continue that in Indy. I'm not saying Cincinnati will win, but don't expect a blowout. For Tennessee, the Dolphins are a dangerous team. And with Chad Pennington (who I honestly thought retired like last year) as the starter for Miami, the Titans' defense is guaranteed to see a mistake-free game from the quarterback position. Both the Titans and what's left of the Colts should win, but both could easily lose. and with the winner of the Texans-Jaguars game at 5-4, there could conceivably be a three-way tie for first place, with the last place team a game behind. There could also be a two-way tie, with the Houston-Jacksonville winner still fine and the last place team in a bit of a hole. The shaping of the division will be a lot more clear after this week.

Will the Giants essentially clinch the NFC East come Tuesday morning? 
As ugly as the Giants have looked at times this season (see: Weeks 1-3, Week 6 against the Lions), they are 6-2 and considered an NFC favorite. Their ability to not only get to the quarterback, but to throttle them and somehow injure all of them is incredible. Of course, their ability to turn the ball over is just as incredible. But with the dreadful, discombobulated, drama-filled 1-7 Cowboys coming to East Rutherford Sunday, theory has it they should cruise. It is Monday night's matchup that could determine the rest of their season when the Eagles play the Redskins. With a Philadelphia win, the Eagles would go to 6-3 and remain a game back (this is assuming the Giants take care of business). If Washington wins, both the 'Skins and Iggles will be 5-4 and two games back. This puts the Giants in a much more comfortable position. They still won't be able to put it on cruise control, but it means a slip-up later in the year (say, a loss to Jacksonville or Minnesota) wouldn't be as bad.

This is a key week. Soon it will be put-up-or-shut-up for many teams. Especially this year, where only a handful of teams are out of the mix already and seemingly anyone can lose on any given week, every game is important. It has been a long time since there has been such little dominance by any one team, and there are no guarantees for anyone going forward. But Week 10 of the season should see the start of things clearing up, as only six games affect nearly half the league.