Gone Bowlin'!

I won't lie. Right now the college football season is going pretty well. I mean, through eight games only two have had any excitement and no one went to the games. But personally, I'm 7-for-8 in my Bowl Pick 'Em thus far. But come the New Year the low-tiered, pretty pointless bowls will start to wrap up, and it will be time for the big boys to step out onto the field in the BCS games. That means it's time for my second annual BCS predictions! Technically it's the third straight year I've done them, but it's the second year I've done them on this blog. Last year I went 2-3, and the year before I went 3-2, so I'm a solid .500 so far. So let's begin!

On New Year's Day is the Rose Bowl between Big Ten champ Wisconsin and #3 (and undefeated) TCU. This is a very interesting match-up to kick off the BCS games. Wisconsin is playing as well as anyone in the country, including Oregon and Auburn, and is powered by the nation's biggest and best offensive line and three capable running backs, all with over 800 yards rushing. This is their first BCS game since the 1999 Rose Bowl. TCU, in their second straight BCS game, is still looking for national respect. Looking at their schedule they beat only two ranked teams (#24 Oregon State in the season opener and a very overrated #5 Utah), but are ninth in the country in total offense and has a defense that leads the country in points allowed (11.4/gm) and yards allowed (215.4/gm). However, for all the statistics, they haven't seen an o-line that has two All-Americans and four returning starters all over 310 pounds. At 6-foot-7 and 327 pounds, Outland Trophy winner Gabe Carimi (who may be the best player in the nation) leads the way, and will do just that as Wisconsin runs away with a 35-24 win.

Later Jan. 1 is what most are expecting to be the most lopsided BCS game over when #7/Big 12 winner Oklahoma takes on the Big East "winner" Connecticut in the Fiesta Bowl. After stumbling to a 3-4 start out of the gates, UConn won their last five games to win a share of the conference title in a terrible Big East. Outside of Jordan Todman, the nation's second-leading rusher, the offense is non-existant, and the secondary is shaky at best. Many are calling the Huskies the worst BCS team ever. Oklahoma (11-2) should expect to pick apart the UConn defense and roam freely in the secondary, as Landry Jones and the third-ranked passing offense have a biiiiiit of an advantage. But don't expect a 40 point blowout. The Sooners will move the ball, but in their five-game win streak the Huskies have forced 17 turnovers -- while committing only five of their own. And the UConn offensive line is none too shabby, having dominated defenses since Halloween. Oklahoma will snap their five-game BCS losing streak, but it will be closer than expected. Sooners 32, Huskies 21.

Jan. 3 is the Orange Bowl between ACC-champ Virginia Tech and Pac-10 champion Stanford. This very easily could be the best bowl game of the season outside of Oregon-Auburn. Virginia Tech has been a totally different team since their 0-2 start, having not lost since then. ACC Player of the Year Tyrod Taylor has led the way, throwing a school-record 23 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions, and has added over 800 rushing yards. The defense is average, but like UConn they force a lot of turnovers (their 22 picks are second best in FBS). However, Stanford has Andrew Luck. A junior, Luck is considered to be the number one pick in next April's draft (if he declares, and if there is even a draft at all). He has over 3000 yards in the air, 28 TDs to just 7 INTs, and has completed a ludicrous 70 percent of his passes. So what gives? A defense that forces a ton of turnovers or a quarterback that rarely throws even an incompletion, let alone interceptions? I'll take the latter, as the Cardinal win 33-28.

The Sugar Bowl sees two at-large bids when Arkansas and Ohio State meet on Jan. 4. Ohio State is third in the nation in scoring defense. Arkansas has one of the most electrifying offenses and is third in passing. Ryan Mallett is turnover-prone, however, with 11 interceptions, but many coming in key situations (i.e. late in the fourth quarter against #1 Alabama). Terrelle Pryor of the Buckeyes is lucky to even be playing after the NCAA found that he and four teammates violated the rules by selling their rings, jerseys and awards, as well as receiving free tattoos. Which leads me to this week's tangent!!

There is absolutely no reason Pryor and his four teammates should play this game. The NCAA found they were wrong. In every prior situation that means immediate suspension. Georgia's AJ Greene sold a game-worn jersey -- a single jersey -- and was suspended immediately for four games. The six Buckeyes sold multiple jerseys and other memorabilia. Last year Oklahoma State's Dez Bryant was suspended for 10 games for talking to Deion Sanders and lying about it. The Buckeyes did not report their violations, and Pryor wrote on his Twitter page that he paid for all his tattoos. HE LIED. The NCAA tried to get out of it by saying that the players didn't deserve to be suspended because they were unaware they were breaking the rules. This just in: the reason Bryant lied was because he didn't know he was breaking the rules! Did that stop NCAA officials? Not even a little bit. But because the players are from Ohio State and it's a BCS game, Pryor and his teammates get to play. If it were any other team short of Michigan and Notre Dame, and I do mean any other team, these players get suspended. But because they are from the historic, precious Big Ten, they get to play because it is a "once in a lifetime opportunity". That shouldn't matter. It's like a parent saying "Oh, you snuck out, stole the car and crashed it? That's fine! You didn't know you were breaking the rules! So you can go to the concert tomorrow, but after that you are grounded!" And because most of them will be drafted, they can leave early, thus avoiding any punishment whatsoever.

Okay, tangent over.

Ohio State is 14th in rushing yards per game, while Arkansas is mediocre in stopping the run. Of course, they also had to face the likes of Cam Newton (Heisman winner), Mark Ingram (2009 Heisman winner) and Trent Richardson (most underrated back in the nation and best sidekick since Arkansas's Felix Jones backed up Darren McFadden). Although Jim Tressel's crew snapped their BCS losing streak in last year's Rose Bowl, they won't be extended any winning streaks, as the Razorbacks will throttle the Buckeyes 52-31.

Then there's the big one, when Auburn and Oregon play for the national title. Both teams have high-powered offenses. Oregon leads the nation in points (49.3/gm) and is fourth in rushing (over 300/gm) and has the football version of Mike D'Antoni's "Seven Seconds or Less" offense that he made famous with the Phoenix Suns. Auburn is sixth in points (42.7/gm) and rushing (287/gm) and is led by Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, who is becoming as good a thrower as he is an athlete. The outcome in this game will come from the defensive side. Who will make a key stop? Because it seems as though neither offense can be stopped. My heart wants the Ducks to win, but I can't figure out how they will be able to stop Newton when teams like Alabama (sixth fewest yards allowed per game), LSU (eighth) and Florida (ninth) could not. The Tigers will win the national title -- outright this time, as opposed to 2004. Auburn 52-45.

After the title game I will post the results in the sidebar, and hope to get above the .500 mark.

You Haven't Done Nothin'

Stevie Wonder sure was right. Donovan McNabb hasn't done nothin'. The storyline going into Sunday's Redskins-Cowboys game was 'Skins coach Mike Shanahan's decision to bench starter McNabb in favor of Rex Grossman. When the announcement was made, Fletcher Smith, McNabb's agent, called the move "beyond disrespectful." Spare me. For all that McNabb has done in his career, Mike Shanahan and the Washington Redskins owe him nothing. And while I don't think the coaching staff has handled the situation properly, for Smith to play the "veteran-is-disrespected" card is just ridiculous.

In a phone interview, Smith said of the benching, "Disrespectful is probably not strong enough of a word. Donovan has handled himself with nothing but class, not just in Washington but as an ambassador for the league. To treat him this way ... it's beyond disrespectful." 


Newsflash to Fletcher: This is sports, where 99 percent of organizations demand results now (Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Pirates excluded) and for a quarterback who is in his first year on a new team, the past doesn't matter. What has Donovan McNabb done for the Redskins in his 12 years that Shanahan should think to himself "Gee, he's accomplished so much for me that I shouldn't be so quick to pull the plug."? Nothing, that's what. If this were Philadelphia, it would be different. In Philly, McNabb took the Eagles to the Super Bowl, five NFC Title Games and eight playoffs. He is the overwhelming franchise leader in every passing statistic, is 14th all-time in rushing and seventh in rushing touchdowns. In ten years fans will go to Lincoln Financial Field and see #5 alongside the other retired numbers in Eagles' lore.


But that is in Philadelphia. 


In Washington, none of that matters. Fact is, McNabb led the team to a 5-8 record and five losses in six games. He is 26th in the league in passer rating. Do you know who has a better passer rating than Donovan's 77.1? Jason Campbell. Alex Smith. Chad Henne. Carson Palmer. Do you realize how bad Carson Palmer has been this season? He's thrown 18 interceptions and had about 100 more dropped. He throws solely to Terrell Owens the majority of the time. And he's still got a higher rating than McNabb. 


McNabb has thrown more INTs (15) than TDs (14). He is 28th in completion percentage (58.3%). Fact is, because he is Donovan McNabb he got the starting nod because he, in theory, gave the team the best chance to win. If he were Jason Campbell, Alex Smith or Chad Henne, he probably would have been benched four weeks earlier. This is in some ways similar another quarterbacking situation involving He Who Shall Not Be Named On This Blog over in Minnesota, who wouldn't have been playing by Week 6 if he were Tarvaris Jackson.



Then there is the part where Smith said that McNabb deserves to start because he has "handled himself with nothing but class, not just in Washington but as an ambassador for the league." Unless you are doing something criminal or just plain stupid, that doesn't matter on the field. Charlie Batch has been recognized for his work in, among other things, helping underprivileged youth, those without food, those without shelter and advocating against gang violence. I would say he is a pretty good ambassador for the NFL. Yet when Ben Roethlisberger returned from his four-game suspension, I didn't see Batch's agent calling it "beyond disrespectful." And note that in the two games Batch started this season his passer rating (76.2) was not much worse than McNabb's, so this comparison isn't entirely dumb.


And the last two games of 2010 don't look good for him, either. Grossman didn't win against the Cowboys, but he didn't play poorly. His four touchdowns were two more than McNabb has thrown in any one game this year, and his two picks were something McNabb has done four times. Rexy's 93.7 rating topped all but two of McNabb's ratings, and he brought the team back from a 20-point deficit early in the third to tie the game with 7:37 to go. I mean, sure, it was against a Dallas defense that is 31st in points allowed, but some merit has to go into the comeback.


As for the off-season and beyond, well, that doesn't look too hot either. The five-year, $78 million extension he signed on Nov. 15 (which was followed by a 59-28 drubbing at the hands of the Eagles on Monday Night Football) has a clause where the team can get out the deal after the season. It is highly unlikely you will be seeing McNabb in the nation's capital next year.

For that, Redskins fans should only have one thing to say: All hail Rex Grossman!! Please draft Jake Locker!!

(NOTE: Stats from ESPN.com, pro-football-reference.com, and NFL.com)
Check back next week for my 2nd annual BCS prediction post!

Stop With the BCS BS

People seriously need to stop complaining about the BCS. This is the 13th year of its existence, and every year there has been an issue with it. There have been snubs (i.e. 11-1 Texas Tech in 2008), BCS-busters who have been discriminated against (Boise State in '06 and '09) and questionable BCS representatives. Countless solutions have been proposed: a playoff format, a plus-one system, basically anything not based off a computer. This year the problem has been with the Big East, whose members have -- to say the least -- underperformed a bit. Still, come Saturday either unranked UConn (7-4) or #24 West Virginia (7-3) will most likely accept a bid to the Fiesta or Orange Bowl. Meanwhile, it looks like #8 Michigan State, who finished 11-1, will be left out of the BCS bowl picture for being the third-lowest ranked Big Ten team (#5 Wisconsin will represent the conference as champions and #6 Ohio State will get an at-large bid... no more than two teams from the same conference can be in a BCS game). But to all the whiners out there, I have only one thing to say.

Stop it. Because no matter how much you complain, no matter how big a temper-tantrum you throw, nothing will be done.

Is anyone from the Big East deserving of a BCS bid? No. I'm not stupid. The conference has three wins against BCS opponents in 14 tries: West Virginia's massacre of 8-4 Maryland, UConn's trampling of SEC bottom-feeder Vanderbilt, and South Florida's overtime squeaker against underachieving Miami (FL). The Mountaineers needed a miracle comeback and overtime to beat in-state rival Marshall (5-7). Rutgers needed three quarters to get going against FCS opponent Norfolk State. And in what were supposed to be high-profile match-ups, Oklahoma edged two-time defending champion Cincinnati and Miami (FL) annihilated Pittsburgh, who was picked to win the league, 31-3. Pitt, who is currently 6-5, also lost their home opener to Utah. Until this week, when the BCS ranked West Virginia at #24, no Big East team had made an appearance in the rankings in five weeks. Currently no team is ranked in either the AP or Coaches' Poll, and none have since October 23. Basically, the conference has sucked.

Still, though, this is not the first time a three- or four-loss team would receive an automatic BCS bid. This is just the most scrutinized occurrence. In fact, it has happened three times:

• In 2002 Florida State finished the regular season 9-4. They lost to #1 Miami (FL) and #6 Notre Dame, but also lost to Louisville, who would finish 7-5, and unranked NC State. They went to the Sugar Bowl and lost to Georgia by 13.

• The Seminoles faced the same situation in 2005, when they finished 8-4, losing to Virginia, NC State, Clemson and Florida (the latter three in consecutive weeks). The Gators were the only team ranked out of those four. They lost to Penn State in the Orange Bowl in triple overtime.

• In 2008 Virginia Tech opened the season with a loss to East Carolina (unranked) to fall from #15 to unranked, then re-entered for two weeks before losing to Boston College (unranked) and #24 Florida State in back-to-back weeks, and then lost to a 7-6 Miami (FL) team. They were not ranked, but won the conference and beat Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl.

Most say West Virginia would do best in a BCS game. And by best I mean people believe they'll lose by the least amount. Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, though, their destiny in the hands of the Huskies. UConn started 3-4, ending that start with an uninspired 26-0 blowout at the hands of Louisville. But since then the team has won four straight, including wins over West Virginia and Pitt in consecutive weeks. If they win at South Florida -- another streaking team coming off a program-defining win against Miami -- they get the automatic bid. If they lose and West Virginia beats Rutgers (which will happen... the Scarlet Knights have completely collapsed in recent weeks), then the Mountaineers get the bid. If both teams lose and Pitt beats Cincinnati, then the Panthers, at 7-5, go bowling BCS style. If all three teams lose and there is a five-way tie in the conference between UConn, Pitt, West Virginia, South Florida and Syracuse, then it turns into a five-team mini-conference, and Connecticut would win based off their 3-1 record against the other four teams. Wouldn't life be so much easier if the Huskies won Saturday?

The main argument against the Big East, but specifically the Huskies and Mountaineers, is that they aren't as deserving as, say, Michigan State, LSU, Missouri, Boise State and Nebraska/Oklahoma (whichever loses in the Big 12 title game), all of whom will most likely not get an invitation to a BCS game. Michigan State is the victim of an unfortunate rule. I can't really argue this. But for all the other teams, they have no one to blame but themselves for their participation in lower-tiered bowls because they all broke (or will break) the unwritten rule of college football: don't lose after Halloween. If LSU beat Arkansas last week, they would be in. If Missouri didn't lose in consecutive weeks to Oklahoma and Texas Tech (the latter of which came on November 6), they would be in the Big 12 title game. If Boise State makes a few more plays and beats Nevada, they're in. (Note: This game was not lost entirely on the two missed field goals by Kyle Brotzman. There were plenty of other opportunities for the Broncos to put the game away and they didn't). And whoever loses the Big 12 title game, well, win and you'd be in, too. It has been the way the system has worked for years, and it will continue to be that way at least for the near future. A Big East team could be 10-1 right now and it wouldn't make a difference: none of these teams would be playing in a BCS bowl game. You may not agree with it, but complaining is going to fall upon deaf ears, as I don't believe the BCS computer has a built-in microphone to which you can talk into.

And who's to say UConn or West Virginia would automatically get blown out? UConn hasn't lost since Oct. 23, and WVU since Oct. 29. It looks like the Big East winner will face either the ACC champion in the Orange Bowl or the Big 12 champion in the Fiesta Bowl. That means they will either face Virginia Tech, Florida State, Nebraska or Oklahoma.

For UConn, they should be able to run, run, run all day. Jordan Todman is second in the nation in rushing at over 145 yards per game, has rushed for over 100 yards in all but one game he's played in this year, and is the UConn offense (the passing game is 113th in the nation). That being said, teams know this, but that hasn't stopped Todman and the offensive line, who have played as well as any line in the country over the past month. In the last four Husky victories Todman has averaged 161 yards per game. And those four opponents? Three are in the top-25 in fewest rushing yards allowed per game, and the fourth (Syracuse) is in the top 50. None of the four possible opponents are among the top 25 in this category. They are all middle of the pack. Sure, the secondary is a bit shaky, and in any shootout the Huskies would fade pretty quickly, but don't count them out entirely. Their defense gives up a lot of yards, but gets key turnovers. Against West Virginia they forced seven fumbles, recovering four. Among those included one on fourth down and another inside their own two-yard line in overtime. Against Cincinnati they forced five turnovers. In all they have forced 14 turnovers in their four straight wins, to just three turnovers of their own. I don't think the Huskies will win should they get the bid, but I think it could be closer than most people think. (And just remember, this Huskies team won five straight games to end 2009, including a dominating effort over South Carolina -- the same South Carolina who beat #1 Alabama and could very well upset #1 Auburn this weekend. Just saying.)

As for the Mountaineers, their defense is pretty damn good. Through 11 games only two teams have surpassed the 20-point plateau against WVU: Marshall scored 21, LSU scored 20. They have given up 10 points in three consecutive games. They are third in the nation in total yards allowed per game. The unit is, in a word, dominating. The offense is turnover-prone and Noel Devine has suffered nagging injuries all year, but something tells me with a few weeks off, he'll be just fine for the final game of his collegiate career.

I understand the criticism the Big East is facing. In all honesty, no one from that conference is worthy of a BCS bid. But by rule, someone will in fact get a bid, and it will be, barring the unforeseeable, UConn or West Virginia. I'm not saying either team will win. I'm not guaranteeing the game will be close. But please, stop with the B.S., because nothing will change, one of those teams will go to a BCS game, and, contrary to popular belief, they very well could compete.

Another year, more BCS madness. You know, just like usual.