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Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Showtime to Show Up

It's not exactly Russell vs. Chamberlain, and certainly not Magic vs. Bird. But for the twelfth time -- and second time in the past three seasons -- the Celtics and Lakers will meet in the NBA Finals. When comparing both teams to the 2008 versions, the major players are the same, but the attitudes have changed. The Lakers are the defending champions with one of the best player in the world in Kobe Bryant and Boston is an older, slower team at the tail end of the all-too-brief "Big Three" era. And because of this, I don't expect the same outcome that '08 brought us (Celtics in 6). No, I am picking Los Angeles to run away with the series in five games, and hang up banner number fifteen next season at the Staples Center.

Now, I may be picking LA to win the series, but the outcome will be in the hands of the C's. I really, really wanted to put Rasheed Wallace as the key to the series merely for my own amusement. I mean c'mon! The man threatened Tim Donaghy back in 2003. Just think about that for a second: Rasheed Wallace, the goon of all goons, almost could have saved the league years of embarrassment had he acted upon these threats. Lucky for Donaghy that Wallace is so lazy he makes Tim Thomas look like Charlie Hustle both on and off the court. So, no, Sheed isn't the X-factor to this series. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and superstar-in-the-making Rajon Rondo are, however, and ultimately their performance will decide how the series plays out. Bryant is an 8-time All-Defensive First Teamer, and it is likely that Phil Jackson will let him decide who he guards. He has the ability to guard any of those three players. Unfortunately for the Zen Master, he can only guard one person at a time. This is where things could potentially become problematic for LA. Rondo is no longer the semi-underachieving, second-tiered player. This is his team now, and he is the 2nd or 3rd best point guard in the league. He's been on a tear this postseason, and I expect him to continue that this series. If he doesn't, the Celtics stand no chance. Just look at the Magic series. In Game 4, Pierce and Allen combined for 54 points, while Rondo chipped in only 9 of his own. Orlando won by four in overtime. In Game 3, however, Pierce had 28, Rondo had 25, and Allen had just 4 points on 1-for-9 shooting. The end result was a three-point Boston win. Rondo needs to bring his best, because it gives the Celts their best shot at victory. Meanwhile Pierce and Allen have to step up. They may not be the stars on most nights anymore, but their performance and winning go hand-in-hand. Here are the three possible scenarios I've narrowed it down to for Boston:
  • Rondo plays well, as do Pierce and/or Allen. Kobe can only guard one of them, which leaves the question of: Do you give Walter Ray wide-open threes, leave Pierce room to create shots, or have Rondo drive to the hoop to dish it off or put up that masterful up-and-under scoop shot? It's a pick-your-poison scenario, and it gives the Celtics their best shot at winning.
  • Rondo doesn't play well, but Pierce and/or Allen do, or vice versa. Either way the Celtics can't overcome the one-dimensional offense, and Kobe will be too much to handle.
  • None of the three play well, and the Lakers pile-drive Boston into the ground.
3 games ago, I would have chosen the former. But after seeing the re-emergence of the old, slow Celtics team that played for most of the season in Games 4 and 5 of the Magic series, now the middle or last choice seems more logical. Because of the nursing-home appearance, I'm not too optimistic on Boston's chances. (Notice the absence of Kevin Garnett here. I think KG will not do too much offensively).

A big reason for my pessimism is because the Lakers have Kobe, who can single-handedly shut down one of the three offensively. That would mean that Doc Rivers might actually have to coach (Gasp!). And let's be serious: is there a sane Celtics fan that wants a game, and potentially the series, to come down to a Glenn Anton Rivers coaching decision? Kobe's defensive prowess could be the factor. But of course, #24 hasn't always been a team-first player (which is why he will take 30 shots a game on random nights to show off his greatness, even though Pau Gasol has a clear mismatch in the post), and he knows the personal rewards that could come from winning this series. Over the course of his career he has gone from the "Can't-win-without-Shaq" level, graduated last year to the "Don't-doubt-my-greatness" phase, and with another title could see the beginning stages of a "Kobe vs. Jordan" comparison. Personally, I don't think anyone now, and quite possibly ever, will deserve to be considered in the same breath as His Airness, because no one had his combination of skill, competitive drive, and leadership, period. But with a fifth ring, and second in the post-Shaq era, Bryant would have to seriously be considered one of the ten or fifteen greatest players of all-time. And Kobe knows this, too. His ego is big enough that he can put the entire team on his back and win merely for the sake of his own legacy, even if Gasol or Lamar Odom struggle. With 1200 regular season and playoff games under his belt, with nagging back, ankle, and finger injuries to boot, Kobe knows there won't be five or six more tries for rings. This probably won't be his last trip to the Finals, but the opportunities are becoming fewer, and for someone who wants to go down as one of the greatest ever to lace up the sneakers, he will want, he will need, another title. Anyone who has seen his performance this postseason, especially in the Suns series, knows he is playing with a chip on his shoulder. Offensively he is as good as ever. And say what you want about Boston's stingy defense, but look objectively at their playoff opponents thus far. They shut down Miami as a team, but Dwyane Wade averaged 32 points per game. Quite frankly, the rest of the Heat suck, and if the Celtics gave up a lot of points to the rest of the team, it would be bad. Then in Round 2 they took on another one-man show in LeBron James and the Cavs. The Magic have Dwight Howard, who is no offensive force by any stretch of the imagination, and no one else decided to give a damn on offense for Orlando. Kobe is as good as Flash and LBJ, and unlike them he has a supporting cast. The Boston defense is good, but is it good enough to stop Kobe and Gasol and Odom and maybe Derek Fisher? They could be. But they could also finally have met their match.

Expect another classic battle between the NBA's fiercest rivals. But for those who have enjoyed the Celtics' success against the Lakers (9-2 series lead all-time), they might be a little disappointed in a few weeks, as it will be Los Angeles who should come out on top this time and repeat as champions. The Black Mamba simply won't have it any other way.

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