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Monday, September 6, 2010

Pollsters Seeing Blue

The most anticipated game of the year thus fair did not fail to disappoint. When Boise State and Virginia Tech met at FedEx Field on Monday night, there were high expectations, and an even better game. It looked as though Boise State would run away with it, as they came out pumped up and didn't just punch the Hokies in the mouth, they had a running start and Ivan Drago power behind that punch. Before you could blink it was 10-0, and before your popcorn was popped it was 17-0. But with all the problems Frank Beamer's crew faced early, they fought their way back and had the lead late. However, Kellen Moore masterfully led a drive late and led the Broncos to a 33-30 victory. And although they were the higher ranked team, to most of college football it was no doubt an upset. Here are my thoughts as the game went on:

1st Quarter:
Wow. Boise State is the real deal. I was amazed at how prepared and poised the team looked. Big crowd, essentially a road game considering Boise is 2400 miles from Landover, Maryland and Blacksburg, Virginia is 275, basically the team's national title game. And what do they do? They come out extra aggressive, and convert turnovers into points. On a 3rd-and-1 Tech handed the ball off to their star running back Ryan Williams and read the isolation perfectly. The entire first half the Broncos dominated in the trenches. They didn't give Williams any space to run, and if Taylor scrambled, it was to the sideline for only four or five yards. Then after blocking a punt and taking over at the Hokies' 10-yard line, quarterback Kellen Moore expertly faked the handoff, made the safety bite, and had an easy touchdown pass. Five-plus minutes in, already 10-0.

Conversely, as impressive as the Broncos were, Virginia Tech was just as bad. For years Frank Beamer and his patented "Beamer Ball" has thrived on special teams and discipline, neither of which appeared over the first fifteen minutes. On the second play of the game Tyrod Taylor, a four-year starter, fumbled the snap. Then on the second drive they went 3-and-out and had a punt blocked. Usually it is Tech blocking the punts. That goes towards the preparedness of Boise. They studied the film, found a hole, and beat the Hokies at their own game. Then on a 4th-and-1, just when the offense was about to get the ball back, DJ Coles ran into the kicker, then on top of that was called for an unnecessary roughness penalty. That led to another Boise State touchdown. Suddenly it's 17-0, and all 17 points could have been prevented. As good as the Broncos were, Virginia Tech was truly terrible on offense and special teams, which gave the defense no chance. Kellen Moore threw 39 TDs to just 3 INTs last year. He isn't going to make mistakes.

(Side note away from the game: Kellen Moore is a damn good college quarterback. Unfortunately for him, he's not NFL material. His throwing motion is very awkward. There is a lot of wasted movement. He has happy feet, doesn't step into his throws enough, and as a result throws far too often off his back foot. Because of it his body flies open, and the ball comes out of his hand with less accuracy and a very wobbly spiral. His best throw was a beautiful, perfectly executed fade route, complete with a disgusting, one-handed catch for a touchdown. If he threw more passes like that, my opinion on him would change. In fact, if he threw all of his passes like he did in that winning drive, which were purposeful and confident, I would like him more, even with the awkward footwork. I look at him like a Tim Tebow-esque quarterback. He has the stats, has the intangibles, but the fundamentals in form are weak, which is a major turnoff to pro scouts. By the time a quarterback reaches the NFL coaches don't want to waste time re-teaching someone how to throw.)

My final note from the 1st quarter was the crowd. Being so close to Virginia Tech, I expected an awful lot of maroon and orange. There certainly was an advantage for the Hokies, but I was shocked at how much blue there was in the crowd. There's no doubt those Idahoians (??) love their Boise State football!

2nd Quarter:
The rust began to wear off, and as Virginia Tech finally got into a groove, Tyrod Taylor looked good. When given more than three seconds to throw, it 's amazing what he can do. First off, he has a cannon. Coming out of his hand the ball flies and has a crisp, tight spiral. It is a thing of beauty. Down 17 he kept his composure and began to lead the comeback. For the most part he and Williams had no room to run, yet in those rare opportunities when even a small hole opened, the two were explosive and began running freely. When that happened the landscape began to change. The defense -- which didn't play poorly in the first quarter, they were put into tough situations -- was beginning to get into a rhythm, and the offense was putting drives together, gaining 105 yards in the 2nd quarter compared to just five yards in the 1st. Going into the half being down only four and beginning to put it all together, I thought the Hokies were going to be fine.

3rd Quarter:
Coming out of the half, I continued to be impressed by the Boise State defense. Right from the opening kickoff they were aggressive, always around the ball. There were four or five hideously grey jerseys around the ball at all times. But then Taylor and Williams began to take over. When Williams scored for the third time as Va. Tech took the lead at 21-20, it was only the 13th time he touched the ball. A workhorse, Williams just wore down the Boise defense. On both sides of the ball the Hokies began looking more and more explosive off the line as the Broncos began to get tired. This includes special teams, as there was pressure on punts, and later a blocked extra point. I questioned how much Boise had left in the tank, what with their 17 point lead gone and the defense looking exhausted. I thought the team -- with the magnitude and implications of the game, knowing what a loss would mean -- came out too pumped up and tired themselves out too early. I honestly thought it would be up to Kellen Moore to trade touchdowns and hope he had the ball last, because the defense could do nothing to stop the Hokie offense. Then what happens? BOOM. A 71-yard touchdown run, and there was once again life on the Boise State bench. The defense was once again aggressive, playing with a swag, an air of confidence. But that confidence went too far on 4th-and-5 deep in Bronco territory. Not wanting to give Taylor time to throw, seven Broncos rushed, and they ended up getting burned, giving up a fairly easy touchdown. Against crappy WAC teams the Broncos can afford to be as reckless as they want. But against the #10 team in the country with a 4-year starter in Taylor, you can't do that. End of 3: 27-26 Va. Tech.

4th Quarter:
The Boise offense wasn't the potent force they were against WAC teams a year ago, but they were consistently good. The chemistry between Moore and receiver Titus Young was impressive, as it seemed Moore would throw the ball into nothingness and Young would come down with it. And I found effective the Boise running attack of DJ Harper and Doug Martin. They hit the holes with power, broke arm tackles, and were hard to take down. They led a solid drive early in the quarter, but it ended with no points due to a missed field goal. While the storyline was how the kicker had a mental fight against the left hash mark, the miss wasn't entirely his fault, as the snap bounced to the holder, who had to scramble to get the ball in place.

From there, Virginia Tech had a very effective 10-play, 64-yard drive capped by a 34-yard field goal to extend the lead to 30-26. After a Boise punt, Tech had the ball once again. A touchdown would end it. This was problematic for Tyrod Taylor. He throws hard to begin with, but you could get the sense that he was trying to overthrow the ball. A few throws that he would have made in the 2nd and 3rd quarter he wasn't making, and the drive ended.

So after a good punt return Kellen Moore had the ball at his own 44 with 1:47 to go and no timeouts. A pre-season Heisman candidate, this was a perfect time for Moore to show America what he's all about. Prime-time on national television in a hyped game, a chance to lead his team to victory. He choked right? WRONG. Moore had ice in his veins, going 4-for-5 on the drive, making the Hokie secondary look pathetic (which they kind of were... I mean single-coverage on Titus Young, who had killed them all game?). Helped by an awful unnecessary roughness call, with about 1:10 left they had the ball on the 13. Two plays later, Moore might have won himself the Heisman after Week 1 with a gorgeous touch pass to Austin Pettis to take the lead.

From there, Taylor tried to throw four bombs, the Hokies turned the ball over on downs in four plays, and what do you know? The Broncos beat the Hokies, 33-30. Who'd've thunk it?

So one game in and Boise can now pretty much go on cruise control for the rest of the season, with the only exceptions being a game against Oregon State in a few weeks, and against a surprisingly good Fresno State team on November 19. So if they finish the year undefeated, will it be enough to get them in the national title game? Of course, Alabama and/or Ohio State would have to lose, but to the voters it is a legitimate argument over whether a one-loss 'Bama, Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma, or Florida is better than the undefeated Broncos. But this year there would be more scrutiny than ever if Boise State was left out of the national title game again. There is going to be a lot of pressure on the voters, which make up 2/3 of the BCS formula. Should things play out as I expect them to, however, sorry Broncos: you'll go to a BCS game, just not the one you want to go to. I still think it will be Alabama-Wisconsin (that's right, Wisconsin). But the Broncos took a darn good step towards getting to that title game, and that's a start that Chris Petersen couldn't draw up any better.

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