Gone Bowlin'!

I won't lie. Right now the college football season is going pretty well. I mean, through eight games only two have had any excitement and no one went to the games. But personally, I'm 7-for-8 in my Bowl Pick 'Em thus far. But come the New Year the low-tiered, pretty pointless bowls will start to wrap up, and it will be time for the big boys to step out onto the field in the BCS games. That means it's time for my second annual BCS predictions! Technically it's the third straight year I've done them, but it's the second year I've done them on this blog. Last year I went 2-3, and the year before I went 3-2, so I'm a solid .500 so far. So let's begin!

On New Year's Day is the Rose Bowl between Big Ten champ Wisconsin and #3 (and undefeated) TCU. This is a very interesting match-up to kick off the BCS games. Wisconsin is playing as well as anyone in the country, including Oregon and Auburn, and is powered by the nation's biggest and best offensive line and three capable running backs, all with over 800 yards rushing. This is their first BCS game since the 1999 Rose Bowl. TCU, in their second straight BCS game, is still looking for national respect. Looking at their schedule they beat only two ranked teams (#24 Oregon State in the season opener and a very overrated #5 Utah), but are ninth in the country in total offense and has a defense that leads the country in points allowed (11.4/gm) and yards allowed (215.4/gm). However, for all the statistics, they haven't seen an o-line that has two All-Americans and four returning starters all over 310 pounds. At 6-foot-7 and 327 pounds, Outland Trophy winner Gabe Carimi (who may be the best player in the nation) leads the way, and will do just that as Wisconsin runs away with a 35-24 win.

Later Jan. 1 is what most are expecting to be the most lopsided BCS game over when #7/Big 12 winner Oklahoma takes on the Big East "winner" Connecticut in the Fiesta Bowl. After stumbling to a 3-4 start out of the gates, UConn won their last five games to win a share of the conference title in a terrible Big East. Outside of Jordan Todman, the nation's second-leading rusher, the offense is non-existant, and the secondary is shaky at best. Many are calling the Huskies the worst BCS team ever. Oklahoma (11-2) should expect to pick apart the UConn defense and roam freely in the secondary, as Landry Jones and the third-ranked passing offense have a biiiiiit of an advantage. But don't expect a 40 point blowout. The Sooners will move the ball, but in their five-game win streak the Huskies have forced 17 turnovers -- while committing only five of their own. And the UConn offensive line is none too shabby, having dominated defenses since Halloween. Oklahoma will snap their five-game BCS losing streak, but it will be closer than expected. Sooners 32, Huskies 21.

Jan. 3 is the Orange Bowl between ACC-champ Virginia Tech and Pac-10 champion Stanford. This very easily could be the best bowl game of the season outside of Oregon-Auburn. Virginia Tech has been a totally different team since their 0-2 start, having not lost since then. ACC Player of the Year Tyrod Taylor has led the way, throwing a school-record 23 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions, and has added over 800 rushing yards. The defense is average, but like UConn they force a lot of turnovers (their 22 picks are second best in FBS). However, Stanford has Andrew Luck. A junior, Luck is considered to be the number one pick in next April's draft (if he declares, and if there is even a draft at all). He has over 3000 yards in the air, 28 TDs to just 7 INTs, and has completed a ludicrous 70 percent of his passes. So what gives? A defense that forces a ton of turnovers or a quarterback that rarely throws even an incompletion, let alone interceptions? I'll take the latter, as the Cardinal win 33-28.

The Sugar Bowl sees two at-large bids when Arkansas and Ohio State meet on Jan. 4. Ohio State is third in the nation in scoring defense. Arkansas has one of the most electrifying offenses and is third in passing. Ryan Mallett is turnover-prone, however, with 11 interceptions, but many coming in key situations (i.e. late in the fourth quarter against #1 Alabama). Terrelle Pryor of the Buckeyes is lucky to even be playing after the NCAA found that he and four teammates violated the rules by selling their rings, jerseys and awards, as well as receiving free tattoos. Which leads me to this week's tangent!!

There is absolutely no reason Pryor and his four teammates should play this game. The NCAA found they were wrong. In every prior situation that means immediate suspension. Georgia's AJ Greene sold a game-worn jersey -- a single jersey -- and was suspended immediately for four games. The six Buckeyes sold multiple jerseys and other memorabilia. Last year Oklahoma State's Dez Bryant was suspended for 10 games for talking to Deion Sanders and lying about it. The Buckeyes did not report their violations, and Pryor wrote on his Twitter page that he paid for all his tattoos. HE LIED. The NCAA tried to get out of it by saying that the players didn't deserve to be suspended because they were unaware they were breaking the rules. This just in: the reason Bryant lied was because he didn't know he was breaking the rules! Did that stop NCAA officials? Not even a little bit. But because the players are from Ohio State and it's a BCS game, Pryor and his teammates get to play. If it were any other team short of Michigan and Notre Dame, and I do mean any other team, these players get suspended. But because they are from the historic, precious Big Ten, they get to play because it is a "once in a lifetime opportunity". That shouldn't matter. It's like a parent saying "Oh, you snuck out, stole the car and crashed it? That's fine! You didn't know you were breaking the rules! So you can go to the concert tomorrow, but after that you are grounded!" And because most of them will be drafted, they can leave early, thus avoiding any punishment whatsoever.

Okay, tangent over.

Ohio State is 14th in rushing yards per game, while Arkansas is mediocre in stopping the run. Of course, they also had to face the likes of Cam Newton (Heisman winner), Mark Ingram (2009 Heisman winner) and Trent Richardson (most underrated back in the nation and best sidekick since Arkansas's Felix Jones backed up Darren McFadden). Although Jim Tressel's crew snapped their BCS losing streak in last year's Rose Bowl, they won't be extended any winning streaks, as the Razorbacks will throttle the Buckeyes 52-31.

Then there's the big one, when Auburn and Oregon play for the national title. Both teams have high-powered offenses. Oregon leads the nation in points (49.3/gm) and is fourth in rushing (over 300/gm) and has the football version of Mike D'Antoni's "Seven Seconds or Less" offense that he made famous with the Phoenix Suns. Auburn is sixth in points (42.7/gm) and rushing (287/gm) and is led by Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, who is becoming as good a thrower as he is an athlete. The outcome in this game will come from the defensive side. Who will make a key stop? Because it seems as though neither offense can be stopped. My heart wants the Ducks to win, but I can't figure out how they will be able to stop Newton when teams like Alabama (sixth fewest yards allowed per game), LSU (eighth) and Florida (ninth) could not. The Tigers will win the national title -- outright this time, as opposed to 2004. Auburn 52-45.

After the title game I will post the results in the sidebar, and hope to get above the .500 mark.

Blast Back to the Past: A Look At My March Baseball Predictions

Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants. They were merely one of many, many teams, players and managers to make me look incredibly dumb with my March predictions. But, hey, I can't be right all the time. Now that all wthe awards have been handed out, and the 2010 season is now 100% behind us, we'll look back and grade the predictions based on a scale of -3 to 3, then go and give myself a numerical score that will judge just how truly stupid I was eight months ago.

1) The New York Yankees will repeat as World Series champions. Made it to the ALCS and were the World Series favorites, but lost because their starters couldn't pitch. Score: -1

2) The Phillies will make it to their 3rd straight World Series. Again, made it to the NLCS, but their bats went silent against the outstanding San Francisco pitching rotation. Score: -1

3) Curtis Granderson will become a superstar. In his first series against the hated Red Sox he hit a game-winning home run to get off to a fairly good start. However, he missed nearly all of May and could never get going. Hit only .247 with 24 home runs and 67 runs batted in. Score: -2

4) In a related note, the Tigers will realize that replacing Granderson with Damon will be an issue. Granderson had three times as many home runs (24 to Damon's eight), a higher slugging percentage (.455 to .401), one more stolen base, a far better WAR (3.6 to 1.9) and his UZR (ultimate zone rating) was 5.3 to Damon's 0.6. In a related note, the Tigers decreased in wins due to an offense that couldn't do anything without Miguel Cabrera and went from a second place finish in 2009 to a third place finish in 2010. Score: 2

5) Steven Strasburg will be average at best this season. Alright, if this kid's arm heals and returns to full strength, he'll be a star. A 5-3 record (with zero run support), 92 strikeouts in 68 innings (including 14 in his major league debut... though that was against the Pirates) and a sub-3 earned run average. It's too bad he had Tommy John Surgery and will miss most of next year, too. Even though his ERA in August was above 5, i'll still say he far exceeded my expectations. Score: -1

6) Roy Halladay will be fine in the regular season, but come the playoffs, he'll be in for a rude awakening. He was a unanimous choice for the NL Cy Young Award, with a 22-10 record and 2.44 ERA. And he threw the second no-hitter in postseason history. Still, in the NLCS he wasn't anything special, splitting two games with Tim Lincecum. However, I think Charlie Manuel messed up here. Halladay should have pitched on short rest and started Game 5, not Game 6. Instead Joe Blanton couldn't make it out of the fifth inning and the Phillies went down 3-1 in the series. So that isn't Halladay's fault (though he should have demanded the ball... an ace should when his team is facing a 3-1 hole). Score: 0

7) Albert Pujols will win another MVP. He finished second, so I wasn't too far off. All it took for someone to take the award away from the Machine was for Joey Votto to go after the Triple Crown. I'll give myself a point. Score: 1

8) Ivan Rodriguez, Adam Kennedy, and Willy Taveras may be names, but it won't stop the Nationals from finishing last in the NL East. 68-93, 28 games out of first place, 10 games behind the fourth place Mets. I-Rod played 111 games, Kennedy 135 and Taveras only 27. Still, something tells me Taveras' .274 average, eight homers and 128 RBIs (in seven seasons) wouldn't have made a difference. Score: 3

9) 3 of these 5 managers will be fired by August 1st: Manny Acta, Dave Trembley, Dusty Baker, Lou Piniella, Cito Gaston. Alright, so Dusty Baker didn't lose his job, considering the Reds won the division. Dave Trembley was canned by Baltimore on June 4th. Piniella and Gaston either announced their retirement (Gaston) or actually retired before the season ended (Piniella), but I don't think either was pressured to do it, but both organizations probably saw it coming before August 1st. Score: 1

10) Texas will have one of the best offenses in baseball, but will be a .500 team.

The team led the majors in batting average and hits, was fifth in RBIs and on-base percentage and struck out the third-fewest times. Nothing new. However the team finished with 90 wins, in large part because of the efforts of CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis on the mound (then Cliff Lee until the World Series). The offense was just as good as past years. I just didn't see the pitching coming around like it did. Score: -2

11) With the addition of Chone Figgins, Ichiro will score 120 runs. Wanna know how terrible the Mariners offense was this year? Only four players played more than 95 games. Figgins hit a dreadful .258 -- and it was third highest on the team. The fact that Ichiro scored 74 runs is a freakin' miracle. Score: -4 (yes, the scale is -3 to 3. That's how bad a prediction it was)

12) ESPN won't be the same without Peter Gammons. Tim Kurkjian is nice, and so is Buster Olney. But Gammons was irreplaceable. Baseball Tonight was considerably less interesting without him there. Score: 3

13) The only teams capable of beating the Yankees in a playoff series are the Red Sox and Mariners. I said this because of their pitching. And that is exactly how the Yankees lost -- they ran into a team with strong pitching. Too bad it wasn't the fairly disappointing Red Sox rotation (that means you, John Lackey), or the Mariners (who did finish in the top 12 of the league in ERA, opponent batting average, earned runs and allowed the third fewest walks). So I knew what it would take to beat the Yankees. Again, I just never thought it would be the Rangers who had the staff. Score: 0

14) Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum, and Jair Jurrjens will be the NL Cy Young candidates. Josh Johnson had a streak of 13 starts without allowing more than two earned runs. Had he not been hurt in the second half, he would have ran away with it. Ubaldo Jimenez won 15 (not a misprint) games before the All-Star break. He should have easily won. However, he only won four games the rest of the year and disappeared down the stretch, even as the Rockies challenged once again for a playoff berth. Lincecum had a good season by most standards (16-10, 231 strikeouts) and will probably finish fourth or fifth in voting. Jurrjens was hurt for much of the season, could only make 20 starts and had a terrible WHIP (1.39).  Roy Halladay was the unanimous choice. Score: 2

15) The NL West rides on the arm of Brandon Webb. Webb didn't make a start, Arizona had all sorts of pitching problems (towards the bottom of the league in ERA, batting average against and strikeouts). And the D'Backs never really contended. Score: -1

16) These will be this year's playoff teams: AL - New York, Minnesota, Seattle, Boston (wild card) NL - Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Francisco, Atlanta (wild card) Got five out of eight teams right, and give me a break on the Sox (if they didn't have so many injuries they would have made it fairly easily). However, that more than gets cancelled out by the Mariners.... oh, the Mariners... Score: 1

17) The Royals will be 2nd in the AL Central on May 1st. By June 30th they will be last. Hey! For once the Royals started the way they finished: a terrible team! They were five games out and third on May 1st, and were already out of it by June 30th. Score: 1

18) Joe Mauer, Lance Berkman, and Derek Jeter, all in their last year of their contracts, will stay. Mauer signed an enormous deal right away, and it looks as though Jeter is going to stay a Yankee (it has to happen). Berkman, though, was traded to the Bronx. Two out of three ain't bad. Score: 2

19) Ozzie Guillen will feud with Jake Peavy at least twice. Peavy only started 17 games and went 7-6. Not worth $15 million by any stretch of the imagination. Unfortunately, no feuds, though. Score: -2

20) The NL East will be the best race. The Yankees and Rays had the tightest race, but it was a well-known fact that whoever finished second would get the wild-card. That goes out the window. You could make a claim for the NL West, but for the entire second half people were wondering if the Phillies were stumbling and if the Braves were for real. Then the roles flipped and led to the best long-term race. Score: 2

21) The AL West will be the 2nd best race. The Rangers had a stranglehold on the division. After July 25th their lead was never fewer than seven and a half games. Score: -2

22) The Pirates will trade Zach Duke and/or Andrew McCutchen. Duke went 8-15 and had an ERA of 5.71. McCutchen was the lone bright spot. Both were on the team all year. However, literally a minute before I was about to hit "Publish", I saw that Duke was traded to Arizona. So technically it wasn't during the season, but he was traded. Originally I was going to give myself a score of -3. New Score: 1

23) With José Reyes back, David Wright will once again hit 25 home runs. Wright hit 29 home runs. Reyes played in 133 games. Score: 3

24) This is the penultimate year for Mariano Rivera. Rivera had 33 saves this year, but have no one in line to replace him, as Joba Chamberlain proved nothing. Looks like Mo will have to go past 2011. Score: -1

25) Evan Longoria will win AL MVP. Longoria was very quiet. He had a solid year (.294, 22 homers, 104 RBIs), but was never amazing. Josh Hamilton ran away with MVP honors in convincing fashion. Score: -2

26) JA Happ and Jayson Werth will launch into superstardom. Happ only appeared in 13 games due to injury, and Werth struggled early but finished very strong, hitting a shade under .300 with 27 HRs and 85 RBIs. He finished eighth in MVP voting, and one of the most sought-after free agents this summer. Score: 1

27) Daisuke Matsuzaka will milk another injury in Boston. Matsuzaka made two trips to the disabled list for a right forearm strain. It was probably legitimate. Probably. But still, he has not been a "bust" but by no means has he been worth the billion and a half dollars or whatever it was that the Sox spent to get him. Score: 1

28) Managers of the Year: Don Wakamatsu, Bobby Cox. Wakamatsu was fired, Cox probably would have had it not been for the surprising Padres and Reds. The Twins' Ron Gardenhire and the Padres' Bud Black won the award. Score: -2

29) Brandon Webb and Garrett Atkins will be Comeback POY: Webb made one short-lived start. Atkins played in 44 games. Maybe I was a year too soon with these picks. Francisco Liriano and Tim Hudson won the award. Score: -3

30) The Marlins and Braves will be 2 of the NL's 5 best teams. Well, the Braves were. The Marlins finished two games under .500. Score: 1

31) Alfonso Soriano is no longer in his prime. By a long shot. Hit a nice and pathetic .258. Yeah, he had 24 homers and 79 RBIs, but he also had nearly as many strikeouts (123) as hits (128). Score: 3

32) Adam Lind will be the Blue Jays offense. Jose Bautista hit 54 home runs in leading of the most powerful offenses ever (in terms of home run hitting at least). Lind hit a dreadful .237 and hit only 23 home runs. Score: -3

33) Matt Holliday will redeem himself for last year's error. My boy hit .312, 28 homers and 103 RBIs, winning a Silver Slugger Award and going to the All-Star game. Although St. Louis didn't make the playoffs, Holliday had his fifth consecutive solid season. Score: 3

34) Brad Lidge makes a triumphant comeback this year. Well he wasn't 48-for-48 like he was in 2008, but his ERA also wasn't 7.21 like it was in 2009. He had a respectable 27 saves in 32 chances, striking out 52 in 45 2/3 innings of work and lowering the earned run average to below three. Not a triumphant comeback, but a good rebound nonetheless. Score: 1

35) Chan Ho Park will be the next Chien Ming Wang for the Yankees. Park went 2-1 with an ERA over five before being relegated to the minors traded to Pittsburgh. He was about as effective as Wang was in 2009. Score: 2

36) Griffey, Edmonds, and Vlad go out quietly. Griffey retired with a day of sadness around baseball, but nothing extraordinary. Edmonds played in only 86 games and drove in 23 runs. Vlad, though, had a huge resurgence, hitting .300 and surpassing 100 runs batted in. Score: 2

37) In his 1st at-bat of interleague play, Joba Chamberlain gets hit by a 95 mph fastball. Seeing as he wasn't a starter, he didn't get an at-bat this year. But I still dislike him. A lot. Score: 0

38) Tim McCarver says approximately 1.5 idiotic things per inning. Just how dumb is Tim McCarver? Before the World Series, partner Joe Buck was on Pardon the Interruption on ESPN doing an interview live. McCarver walked by and, oblivious of the camera or the fact that Buck was talking to it, smacked Buck on the shoulder and started talking to him. Then, when the games were actually played, here were some of my favorites: "The Rangers aren't hitting because the Giants are pitching."

"He's been throwing up some bad dreams to the Texas Rangers." Score: 3

 

39) Manny will say it's his last season in LA, then it's not, then it is again at least 10 times. Well seeing as he was a pain in Joe Torre's ass and ended the year an unproductive member of the White Sox (what's that? unproductive and White Sox are redundancies? Good to know). Score: 2

40) Minka Kelly is shown on camera at least five times per game. So I must say that I barely saw the Yankees play at all this year, but I'm going to assume that she was on at least occasionally. Plus, I need a few points. Score: 1

41) On a related note, Kelly will put the same curse on Jeter that Kate Hudson put on A-Rod. Jeter had his worst year since he was a rookie (though he still won a Gold Glove that was totally unjustified), and I am 100% attributing it to the lovely Minka Kelly. Score: 3

42) After breaking the single-season passing, rushing, and receiving records by Week 6 of the NFL season, Tim Tebow signs with a contender, wins MVP in the LCS and World Series, and in doing so makes his case for the Baseball Hall of Fame. This will be followed by Tebow returning to the NFL and winning the Super Bowl on a last second 76-yard touchdown run. It was a pipe-dream, but I shouldn't be surprised that Tebow didn't do all this. After all, he's humble. He simply didn't want to take the spotlight away from the already-unpopular baseball players (and by unpopular, I mean far less popular than NFL players, unless your name is Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols or Derek Jeter). Score: -3

Although it didn't seem like it, my score was a 16. I don't really know how good that is, because I couldn't figure out an accurate scoring system that would figure out how well I really did. So take from that score what you will. And in reality I probably -- okay, I knowingly -- gave myself an extra point here or there to boost my score that otherwise would have been shockingly terrible.

My Super, Extra Long NFL Prediction Special

I don't know why I put myself through this. Because my baseball predictions from March are going so well (haha) I might as well show off my amazing credibility by making more predictions for the upcoming football season. However, as opposed to the baseball post, where there were random guesses as to what would happen, this will be a little more structured, as I'll go team by team and make a prediction of some sort for each. And guess what? All of them will come true, because I said they would! At the end of the season I'll go back and see how I did.

Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals will not finish above .500 for the season. Kurt Warner was a great comeback story, he had a heck of an arm, and he had Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to catch passes. Well, Warner retired, Matt Leinart inexplicably lost his starting job to Derek Anderson and got himself released, and Boldin bolted for Baltimore (though Early Doucet should fill his spot quite nicely). But with such a decline at the quarterback position, everyone is affected. Fitzgerald hasn't had nearly the success without Warner at the helm. The running game was 28th in the league, and will need to improve greatly. The defense was below average against the pass and one of the worst against the run (and they actually got worse defensively with the loss of Antrel Rolle). Even with the league's easiest schedule, Arizona won't be making a third consecutive post-season trip. There are too many questions in too many positions.

Atlanta Falcons: The team will win 5 of their last 6 games, but miss the playoffs. I like the Falcons this year. Matt Ryan will rebound after an inexplicable sophomore slump. Michael Turner's ankle is back to 100% and he will easily get 1200 yards and score 12-15 times. Roddy White is quietly a very good receiver. Their defense has some issues, and will give up a lot of yards through the air, but even that isn't what bothers me. It's their schedule. Based on last year's records, Atlanta has the 20th hardest schedule. But looking at it, the first half of the year is brutal. They could easily begin the season 1-3 (lose at Pittsburgh, beat Arizona, lose at New Orleans, and to San Francisco). The two weeks going into the bye they have to travel to Philly, which is a brutal environment to play in, and host defending AFC North champion Cincinnati. They also play Baltimore and Green Bay. Before they get to Week 13 they could easily have 7 losses. After Green Bay, the team will beat up on Tampa Bay, Carolina, Seattle, the New Orleans backups, and Carolina again and make a late push for a wild-card berth, but I don't think the defense is good enough to overcome the ridiculous first half of the schedule.

Baltimore Ravens: Ladies and gentlemen, your AFC champions. I hate to say it, but the Ravens have the potential to be scary good. Joe Flacco is prepped to have a breakout year, he now has Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmandzadeh to throw to along with Mark Clayton, Todd Heap, and Ray Rice. Plus, he's young but has playoff experience already. I love that in him. Rice is perhaps the most complete back in football, with the ability to run, catch, and block. Le'Ron McClain is a beast of a fullback, and Willis McGahee is a solid backup. And do I need to mention the defense? Ray Lewis may not be in his 20s anymore, but he's still the best. Terrell Suggs has always been one of the most underrated linebackers in football. Haloti Ngata is a force to be reckoned with on the defensive line. Tom Zbikowski came on strong late last year, and I like his play-making ability as well as his ability to hit hard. The only issue will be the presence of Ed Reed, who will miss at least the first six weeks of the season with a hip injury. If he can come back, his ball-hawking will be the difference between a great defense and the best defense in the AFC (with the only possible exception being the Jets). As a Pittsburgh fan, Baltimore terrifies me this year.

Buffalo Bills: CJ Spiller will be the lone bright spot. Simply put, the Bills aren't very good. Lee Evans has been the best wide receiver for what seems like ages now, what with Terrell Owens not working out like Buffalo had hoped. And this just in: Lee Evans is talented, but if he is your best receiver since Eric Moulds, the team has issues. Trent Edwards is the one throwing the ball. He is a mediocre quarterback at best. The defense gave up the 2nd fewest passing yards last season, but that's probably because they were 30th in rush defense, so everybody shoved the ball down their throats. Even with Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, the team drafted the electric Spiller out of Clemson. A good choice indeed. He can bring a firepower the offense has missed greatly for most of the last decade. If nothing more, he will bring some attention to Buffalo. My pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, as he gains 900 yards and scores 6 times.

Carolina Panthers: Matt Moore will lead the charge and challenge for a wild-card berth. Last year Jake Delhomme was a wreck, throwing 18 interceptions to just 8 touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 59.4. The team went 4-7. In comes Matt Moore, who throws 8 TDs and just 1 INT and the team finishes the year 4-1. And not only that, but they beat NFC runner-up Minnesota and obliterated a Giants team vying for a wild-card spot (they also beat New Orleans, but most of the starter didn't play). The team still has DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, both of whom eclipsed 1000 yards rushing, and a defense that was 4th-best against the pass. If they can improve the run defense, they are definitely a team who can contend for a wild-card spot. Seeing as the explosive Saints are in their division, however, they are probably a year away from contending in the divison.

Chicago Bears: The team will not win five games. Why is everyone still so up-in-arms over Jay Cutler? In his three full years as a starter his interceptions have gone up (from 14 to 18 to 26 last year), his yards per reception and quarterback rating have gone down, and his record as a starter is 24-29. Yet he is still projected to be a Top-10 fantasy quarterback, and people are raving that new offensive coordinator Mike Martz and his offensive genius will turn Cutler's performance around. Because Martz's recent coaching jobs were so good that Cutler just has to be fantastic! Since, you know, when he was the Lions' coordinator in '06 and '07 the team threw more interceptions (44) than touchdowns (40), and in San Francisco in '08 JT O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill blew the league away. The rushing attack is terrible (29th last year, no major changes), there's not really anyone for Cutler to throw to (Devin Hester and Johnny Knox are the top two receivers. Yikes), and the defense has no playmakers. Brian Urlacher is old and has a multitude of injuries, and Julius Peppers is just an overpaid defensive end. I say they split with Detroit, beat the Seahawks at home, and take down the Bills in Buffalo to finish 3-13. (Oh, and since I couldn't fit him in anywhere, I want to mention Devin Aromashodu. Not because he will have a great year or anything. I just love saying his name)

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals won't repeat as AFC North champions. Last year the Bengals were blessed by someone up above, which is pretty impressive considering they have Chad Ochocinco on their team. All the pieces fell into place perfectly. They had the 10th weakest schedule in the league. The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers (of course I had to add the title) had the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL yet lost Troy Polamalu for much of the season. They somehow managed to lose to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns. The Ravens lost Ed Reed for the majority of the season as well. Both defenses were good, but not great as a result of those losses. This year Polamalu is back, so I expect the Steelers' defense to look a lot more like their 2008 form. Plus the Bengals have the 4th toughest schedule this year, which includes traveling to New England, New York to face the Jets, and Indy, and hosting New Orleans. Chad Ochocinco is not a consistent number-one receiver anymore, and neither is Terrell Owens. That won't help an offense that was 26th in passing yards in '09. In fact, the egos might clash. They will be a wild-card contender, but I think asking for another division title is a bit much.

Cleveland Browns: Colt McCoy will start the final five games of the season. Someone in Cleveland must have been thinking LeBron James was going to stay, because the Browns gained absolutely zero star power this off-season. Instead, they handed Jake Delhomme $7 million to throw 18 more interceptions. The team is easily one of the worst in football. They didn't have a 1000 yard running back or receiver. Delhomme has not been good in over two years (5 INTs in one playoff game, anyone?). The only positive thing I can say is that when the Browns play host to the Panthers in Week 12, Delhomme will finally complete some of his passes to a Panthers player. This pre-season McCoy didn't impress much. Sure, he completed 71% of his passes, but didn't have a completion over 17 yards and was sacked 6 times. He didn't throw a touchdown pass. But, sadly, that might still be enough to get a starting nod late in the season when Delhomme nears the 20-interception mark and the team is out of playoff contention. If he is the future of the franchise, he's got to get his feet wet eventually. Might as well be later this year.

Dallas Cowboys: NFC East champs, get to the Divisional Round, that's it though. The Cowboys went 11-5 last year, with an explosive offense and a defense whose weakness was in the secondary. Tony Romo is coming off a career year (4483 yards, 26 TDs), but I question the receiving corps a little bit. Miles Austin is the only proven one, but remember that he's only started 9 games in his career. Roy E. Williams is overpaid and overrated, and the only reason he is going to start Week 1 is because first round pick Dez Bryant hurt his ankle. Eventually Bryant will take over, and people are already calling him the next big thing. I think he'll be very good, but it will take him some time to get used to the NFL. He hasn't played a game in over a year because of his suspension for lying to NCAA officials. Now he has to work his way back from an injury while learning a new system. I am being nit-picky here, though, because the running game is dynamic, Jason Witten is a fantastic pass catcher as well as blocker, and DeMarcus Ware leads the fairly solid defense. But I don't think they are better than Green Bay or Minnesota. Fortunately we'll get to compare the teams because Dallas is forced to travel to both places over the span of the year. If they go 11-5 again with the league's 2nd toughest schedule, I'd be impressed.

Denver Broncos: Kyle Orton will prove he's worth the $9 million extension he signed. All signs point towards Orton playing all of this year, then the team handing the reigns to either Brady Quinn or Tim Tebow. But the Broncos extended Orton's contract anyways, giving him an extra year worth $9 million through 2011. Now, to me getting Brady Quinn in a trade and then drafting Tebow made absolutely no sense. I can't see why Josh McDaniels is unhappy with 3800 yards and 21 TDs. He threw 12 picks, but 6 of them came in two games (3 each versus Pittsburgh and Kansas City). His quarterback rating over the final four games, when the team collapsed completely and failed to make the playoffs after a 6-0 start, 85.9, or right around his QB rating for the season. He isn't on the same level as, say, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, but neither Quinn or Tebow will ever be elite field generals either. As much as I love Tebow, I don't think he'll ever be more than an average quarterback in the NFL. Orton is better than both of the other options, and he'll prove it with 3500 yards and 25 touchdowns this year. It's a shame the loss of Elvis Dumervil will mean the defense is terrible, and the team could finish anywhere from second to last in the division.

Detroit Lions: The team might actually look like a football team (gasp!) The Matt Millen era is disappearing more and more each day, and the team might actually not be terribly, horribly atrocious. Don't get me wrong, they are not a playoff team by any stretch of the imagination, especially with two of the four best teams in the NFC (Green Bay and Minnesota) in their division.
However, the organization is taking the right steps. Matthew Stafford is in his second year behind center, and although he made rookie mistakes (20 INTs) his first year, he also showed flashes of potential. He has a big target in Calvin Johnson. Megatron had a bad year in '09, but with Nate Burleson there to distract DBs I think he'll have 1200 yards and 8-10 touchdowns once again (at least he better, considering he's my most reliable fantasy receiver compared to the hit-or-miss Percy Harvin and Mike Wallace). Rookie Jahvid Best can be electric. Defensively #2 overall draft pick Ndamukong Suh is already the target of double-teams on the offensive line, he decapitated Jake Delhomme in a pre-season game, and looks very much like he could dominate the league for the next decade. With new additions Corey Williams and Kyle Vanden Bosch, the defensive line could be really good. Expect five to six wins for the upbeat Lions this season.

Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl champions. Last year the Packers might have been one of the four best teams in the NFC, but lost in overtime to the Cardinals in the Wild Card round of the playoffs (after storming back from 21 down in the 3rd to force OT). Aaron Rodgers, breakout star from a year ago, played magnificently in the second half of that game, and now has at least a little playoff experience under his belt. He is the trendy pick my many to win the league MVP award. He has weapons around him in Greg Jennings, Donald Driver (who at 35 can still catch with the best of them), Jermichael Finley, and the most under-appreciated back in football, Ryan Grant. The offense can put up points in a hurry via air or ground, and although they gave up 51 points in the playoff loss in Arizona, have plenty of playmakers defensively. BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, and AJ Hawk lead the front seven that love to put pressure on quarterbacks. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson is at cornerback, and safety Nick Collins has 13 interceptions the past two years. For what it's worth, the team had a great pre-season. Can they carry it all the way to Dallas for Super Bowl XLV?

Houston Texans: Andre Johnson will finally get the title he deserves: Best receiver in the league. Three of the last four years Johnson has surpassed 100 receptions, with 2007 being the exception only because he missed seven games due to injury. Each of the last two years he has led the league in yards by wide margins (144 in '08 and 221 last year). He is constantly double teamed, seeing as Kevin Walter does not strike fear in defenses, yet is big enough (6-3, 228 lbs) and fast enough to cut through secondaries everywhere. Unfortunately, if you don't play fantasy football, chances are you didn't realize how dominant Johnson has been recently (he does play in Houston after all...). But this year will be different. He will finally be recognized as the hands-down best receiver the NFL has to offer. 1500 more yards will be what it takes, but he's good for it.

Indianapolis Colts: Another division title, 13 more wins, home-field advantage, etc... My goal was to make a not-obvious prediction, or at least one that would generate talk amongst the thousands of readers I have. But it's incredibly hard to think of something for a team that has been to the playoffs 10 of the last 11 years, won 6 of the last 7 AFC South titles, had 8 consecutive 10-win seasons (including 7 straight seasons of 12+ wins), advanced to at least the Divisional Round of the playoffs in 6 of 7 years, and won a Super Bowl. The Colts have done all of this, still have Peyton Manning, the best quarterback of this generation, and play in a weak division (are 15-1all-time against Houston, can't be stopped by Tennessee, and then the laughingstock Jaguars). There's not much more that can be predicted. There won't be a drop-off in wins. I don't think they are going to win the Super Bowl. I'll take the easy route here and just say the following: 13-3 record, first-round bye, beat the 5th-seeded Steelers in the Divisional Round, then lose to Baltimore in the Conference Title Game. (To see my entire playoff prediction, see here.)

Jacksonville Jaguars: David Garrard is in his last season as the starter. This team is going to struggle mightily. Garrard basically has Mike Sims-Walker to throw to and Maurice Jones-Drew to hand off to, and that's it. The defense can't stop the pass, and is mediocre at stopping the run. Chris Johnson will run freely, and Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub will feast on the secondary. Those are six losses, and that's even before you include losing to three of the four NFC East teams, San Diego, Kansas City, and possibly Oakland. Garrard isn't a terrible quarterback. His quarterback rating in '06, '08 and '09 were around the league average, and in '07 it was among the best in the AFC. He has surpassed 3500 yards each of the last two seasons. He's a solid quarterback. But in a division with Manning and Schaub, to keep up and hope for a playoff spot, the team needs a franchise quarterback. The best hope for the Jags is that they can finish poorly enough to have the worst or 2nd-worst record among them, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Seattle. That way they can get Jake Locker (unlikely though... they aren't bad enough to get the #1 pick) or Florida State's Christian Ponder. Because if they don't get either of those two, the quarterback position is weak in this year's draft class, and they will be stuck in the AFC South basement for a while otherwise.

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs will finish 2nd in the AFC West. This could easily happen. This could just easily come back to haunt me. With Charlie Weis as Matt Cassel's offensive coordinator once again, the third year starter knows most of the offense from his days in New England (though he rarely got to run it in a real-game scenario). That comfort should improve the passing attack that was 25th in the league last year. Then there's the one-two combo of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in the backfield. Charles broke out the last four games of '09, running for 658 yards over that stretch, including a 259-yard effort in the season finale at Denver that officially completed the Broncos' epic collapse. His complement is Thomas Jones, who ran for 1400 yards himself in New York. He's expected to be a second wind in the running game, but expect him to have a bigger impact than other aging backs will have (like, per se, LaDainian Tomlinson in New York). That has the potential to be a Top-5 running game. The defense was a mess, especially against the run (31st in the league). Safety Eric Berry is drawing comparisons to Troy Polamalu already, so the passing defense should improve significantly if that is the case. If they can score enough, they could have a good year. Not a playoff-type year, but a step up from 4-12.

Miami Dolphins: The Wildcat will be no more after this season. Remember that joyous late September afternoon two years ago in Foxboro? When Chad Pennington ran to the sideline and lined up as a receiver? When Ronnie Brown took the snaps directly and ran circles around the Patriots' defense, thus ending the team's 21-game winning streak with a 31-13 beatdown? I do too -- quite vividly actually -- and that's when the wildcat became the fad in the NFL. Last year the Eagles tried it with Michael Vick, and before Pat White was cut by Miami this past week, he ran the offense some of the time for the Fins. But last year coordinators began figuring the formation out. Half of the battle for opposing teams is figuring out whether the person taking the snap is going to run or pass. The Dolphins were just 2-for-11 in the passing department in '09, essentially cutting the offense's effectiveness in half. And with Ronnie Brown having a slew of injuries in the past, Ricky Williams being 33, and Pat White cut, who is going to want to run the offense on a consistent basis? Chad Henne came on strong late in the year at QB, and I think the wildcat will be overlooked, in favor of a more prolific passing attack now that Brandon Marshall is there to throw at.

Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson will fumble fewer than five times. This one might be asking for too much. Peterson is one of the league's best backs, but his downfall has been his inability to hold onto the football. In three seasons he has put the ball on the turf 19 times. That doesn't include the two fumbles in the NFC Championship Game. Typically, the general belief is "Once a fumbler, always a fumbler", with the only exception being Tiki Barber. However most of Peterson's fumbles have been when he's fought for extra yards. If he can learn when to go down, he will cut down on the fumbles. Hopefully Brett Favre gets that through his head.

New England Patriots: Wes Welker will have 120 catches. This guy has got to be a freak of nature. Nine months after tearing his ACL and MCL he was back on the field, participating in contact drills, running routes with his typical precision, and looking confident in his cuts. That just doesn't happen. But for someone who works as hard as Welker, I guess I shouldn't be that surprised. Each of the last three seasons he has surpassed 110 catches and 1100 yards. Last year was his best, catching 123 balls and gaining over 1300 yards in only fourteen games. Most people coming back from re-constructive knee surgery need a year to fully return to peak status (even Golden Boy Tom Brady had an "off" year, at least for him), especially at receiver, a position at which fear of making sharp cuts is killer. But the knee will be fine, and Welker will be back to tip-top form in no time and Bill Belichick should have nothing to worry about there. Now if only he could say the same thing about his defense...

New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees will snap the Madden curse. Daunte Culpepper threw 23 interceptions, then blew out his knees and was never the same player. Marshall Faulk never had another 1000 yard season. Michael Vick broke his fibula in the pre-season. Ray Lewis did not record an interception for the first time, then broke his wrist in Week 15. Donovan McNabb suffered a sports hernia. Shaun Alexander broke his foot and never returned to form. Brett Favre threw 22 picks. Troy Polamalu missed most of the year with a knee injury suffered in Week 1. What do all of these random tid-bits have in common? Each player was on the cover of the most recent Madden game at the time. Aren't you pumped to be on the cover this year Drew!? Brees, though, will be the black sheep of this group. With all of the rules against hitting quarterbacks now, and Brees' durability (two missed starts the last seven seasons, one of which was Sean Payton's decision to rest the starters in Week 17 last year), he will play the whole season, he will throw for 4200 yards and 30 TDs, and he will be in the MVP race. The Saints will repeat as division champs, lose at Lambeau in the conference title game, and Who Dat Nation will be happy.

New York Giants: Brandon Jacobs will be ineffective once again, and the team will release him. After back-to-back 1000 yard seasons in 2007 and 2008, the monster Jacobs had an abysmal 2009 campaign, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and scoring only 5 times en route to 835 yards. This came after he signed a 4-year/$25 million contract extension last February. And after learning that he officially lost his starting job to Ahmad Bradshaw, Jacobs' attitude does not bode for a good year. He told Jill Seward of NESN that it is "hard to stay positive" and blamed the culture of the league for his demotion. I guess seeing your yards per carry decrease by a yard and touchdowns decrease by ten isn't reason enough for a demotion. It's all the league's fault. Seward wrote, "But apparently, sharing the spotlight wasn't on Jacobs' agenda this season." With that kind of attitude, I see no reason why his numbers should improve.

New York Jets: Mark Sanchez will cost the team 1-2 wins, and possibly a Super Bowl. With Darrelle Revis back, the Jets strengthened their case for best defense in the league. Revis Island at one corner, Antonio Cromartie at the other, Bart Scott anchoring the linebackers, and Kris Jenkins plugging up the middle, it's going to be very hard for teams to score. Defense certainly won't be an issue for Gang Green. Offensively, I don't think substituting shut-up-and-run Thomas Jones for diva LaDainian Tomlinson was a good idea, but Shonn Greene will have a breakout year anyways, so the running game will be fine, too. It is Sanchez I'm worried about. There's something about him that I just don't feel comfortable with. He had a solid rookie year, and now has more weapons around him. But Braylon Edwards gets a case of the dropsies often, Santonio Holmes is suspended to start the year, and Nate Washington was cut. He was a manage-the-game type quarterback, which worked seeing as the team went to the AFC Title Game, but to get over the hump and win the Super Bowl, teams need a quarterback to lead them in today's pass-happy league. Look at the last decade of Super Bowl champions. Only the '01 Ravens won with an average quarterback (Trent Dilfer). Since, every team has had a top-flight QB under center. The good news is his breakout game was in the playoffs against Indy (17-for-30, 257 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), but it was only the third time he surpassed 250 yards in a single game. He didn't lead any comeback drives, either. All of this leads me to believe that the Jets might be a year away, because Sanchez isn't ready to be an elite quarterback.

Oakland Raiders: Jason Campbell will carry this team to the 6-win mark. With JaMarcus Russell finally gone, replaced by the competent-but-not-flashy Campbell, the team is beginning to go in the right direction. Michael Bush and Darren McFadden are a decent one-two punch at running back. Zach Miller is one of the better tight ends in the league. The receivers are not very good, which will hold back the capabilities of the offense, but it will be an improvement over last year. Defensively Richard Seymour and Rolando McClain lead the front seven, Nnamdi Asomugha is the league's second-best shutdown corner behind Darrelle Revis, plus my boy Tyvon Branch is consistent at safety, totaling 124 tackles last year. They aren't good, but they aren't terrible, either. 6 wins is very doable with a somewhat fair schedule.

Philadelphia Eagles: Trading Donovan McNabb will come back to haunt the Eagles. The team trading franchise quarterback McNabb to "hated division rival" Washington in the off-season made me mad because it furthered my theory that there is no true rivalry in sports anymore. But in the seemingly up-for-grabs NFC East, it could very well be Philly who will regret trading the cornerstone of their franchise within the division. Now they have a first-year starter in Kevin Kolb going up against NFL defenses plus the feisty Philadelphia sports fans, a running back in LeSean McCoy who basically has to be the entire rushing attack, and two deep threat receivers (DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin) who could be hit-or-miss. The defense is expected to be one of the league's best, but looking at the depth chart nothing looks that special about it. Trent Cole will be a force at defensive end and Asante Samuel has play-making ability, but other than that no real threat appears to be there. Besides, McNabb knows the defense, including how to beat them. Two Redskins victories right there. The team also hasn't won in Dallas since 2007, and were beat down there twice in consecutive weeks (a 24-0 whopping in Week 17 then an equally as bad 34-14 playoff loss), so that's another loss. The secondary is vulnerable to the pass, and they have to face Green Bay, Indy, Houston, and Minnesota. At least two losses there. With the veteran McNabb, I give the team a shot in all of those games. But with the untested Kolb, I'm not so sure.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The defense will return to its 2008 form. The 2008 defense was one of the best ever. They led every major statistical category except rushing yards allowed, which they were 2nd. That defense anchored the team that would go on to win the Super Bowl. The 2009 squad looked the same except for Larry Foote was replaced by Lawrence Timmons. But injuries to Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith decimated the team, as the defense was shaky against the pass and could not hold 4th quarter leads. This year both players are back. Smith is quiet, but very consistent and is another body that needs to be accounted for, freeing up James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. Polamalu is the most indispensable player undoubtedly, as his play-making abilities allow for the corners to take more risks. Barring another injury to the knee, the presence of #43 will make the Pittsburgh D look a lot more intimidating, which is good considering they'll be without Ben Roethlisberger for the first four games.

San Diego Chargers: The probable loss of Vincent Jackson will hurt the Bolts. Perhaps the breakout receiver from last year was Vincent Jackson. Unfortunately for San Diego, his contract didn't represent that, and he says he is willing to hold out for ten weeks to get a new one. A trade seems inevitable at this point. But his loss is huge for a team that really didn't have a whole lot of other options at the wide-out position. He was their biggest, fastest choice, and became one of the league's best deep threats. Antonio Gates will probably have double teams on him at all times now, as teams will make Phillip Rivers throw to Malcom Floyd and Patrick Crayton, both of whom are fairly solid, neither of whom are #1-type guys. And to ask rookie Ryan Mathews to come in and fix the league's least productive rushing attack from a year ago is a bit much. The division is weak enough to win still, but come playoff time against the Baltimores, New Yorks, or Pittsburghs, a deep threat is pivotal for a team that struggles to run.

San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Willis surpasses Ray Lewis as the best middle linebacker in football. For the past decade and a half Ray Lewis has been the middle linebacker in football. Consistently getting 130+ tackles a year, he's been the standard by which all of his peers of this generation are judged. But at 35 one has to think Lewis has to slow down eventually, and he'll have to pass the torch to someone. Enter Willis. He has been in the league for three years, and here are his tackle totals: 174 in 2007, 141 in 2008, and 152 in 2009. He and Lewis are very similar. He doesn't quite have the pass coverage skills Lewis does, but he forces more fumbles and his instincts are just as good. Both are 6'1" and around 245 lbs. There are enough similarities between the two that when Lewis retires, Willis will be the new standard. Why hasn't his name been out there more if he's so good? Well he plays in San Francisco, and the only thing they've done since drafting Willis is fail to live up to high expectations. This year is different, though. Mike Singletary is a good coach (and was a Hall of Fame linebacker himself, mind you), the NFC West is easily the worst division in football, and the 49ers should pretty much win the division by default, even if they finish 9-7 or 8-8. Willis will put up the same numbers he has been, only this year they will be noticed.

Seattle Seahawks: They will finish in the Top-10 in run defense. There are a few reasons I think this. For one, their pass defense is so awful that teams will air it out all game long, and running the ball will not be necessary. But secondly, with the return of Lofa Tatupu (who missed eleven games last year with a torn pectoral muscle), the linebackers are fairly solid. Tatupu is consistently a 100-tackle guy who is very fast, and will plug up holes quickly. Last year the only bright spot was the fact that the team was 11th-best at stopping the run. They got worse from last year to this year, but they will make the leap into the top-10 in something.

St. Louis Rams: The team will improve from their 1-15 record. They will go 2-14.Did you know the Rams can say they beat the Patriots and Ravens this year? I mean, sure, it was in the pre-season, but sadly that might be the highlight of this team's season. Call me crazy but I highly doubt Sam Bradford, who hasn't played a full-fledged football game in 20 months, will magically make all the Rams' woes go away. This is a team that was 28th in passing, 20th in running, 25th against the pass, and 27th against the run. They have all sorts of problems on both sides of the ball. Steven Jackson is their only other talent, but he's averaged 335 touches since 2005, and he has had a history of back problems, including surgery this past off-season. They'll beat Tampa Bay in Week 7 and Kansas City in Week 15, but that's it.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kellen Winslow will have 90 receptions and 1200 yards receiving. I don't think Winslow is one of the top ten tight ends in the NFL. This prediction was basically made because he's the only one with prior success catching the football, and quarterback Josh Freeman will quickly realize that with Antonio Bryant gone for good, Winslow is his most reliable target (yes offense to Mike Williams). Winslow's 77 receptions were 38 more than the next closest player on the team (Bryant), and his 127 targets were 41 more than anyone else. Expect a career year not because Winslow is as good as his dad, or because he is an elite tight end. It's just that Tampa is so bad offensively that they literally have no other options.

Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson will not surpass 1500 yards. Yeah, last year Johnson ran for over 2000 yards and set a single-season record for yards from scrimmage. But that won't happen again for sure. Of the five running backs to rush for over 2000 yards before him, only one (Barry Sanders in 1998) managed to surpass even 1400 yards the following year. Furthermore, of those five backs, only Terrell Davis had more touches (417) than Johnson had last year (408), and the next year was the beginning of the end for Davis, as he played in only four games. Football is a vicious sport, and getting hit as much as much as Johnson was last year takes a whole lot out of the body. Johnson is only 24, so his body is still sprightly and youthful, but last year's production will make him an obvious target to teams. And as history has shown, don't expect another record-setting season.

Washington Redskins: The running game will finish 29th or worse. If this were 2005 the Redskins would easily be favored to win the NFC East. Donovan McNabb at quarterback. Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson in the backfield. Santana Moss and Joey Galloway at wide-out. Yikes. Unfortunately, it's 2010, and aside from McNabb, all of these players are washed up. Especially Portis and Johnson. After finishing just shy of 1500 yards two seasons ago, Portis missed half of last season, scoring only once en route to 494 yards. At 29, he's just about over the hill. Johnson rushed for almost 1800 yards in 2005, but has yet to play a full season since, nor has he surpassed 900 yards in a season. Last year he split time with Kansas City and Cincinnati and rushed for a mere 581 yards. I can't see this tandem being good, although with Mike Shanahan as their head coach they at least have a chance.

(NOTE: Stats from ESPN.com, NFL.com, and pro-football-reference.com)

Baseball Predictions that Will Likely Not Happen

So the Olympics are over, March Madness is still a week or two away from really heating up, and I have nothing better to talk about this week. I thought about talking about the USA-Canada gold medal game on Sunday, but everyone has beat it into the ground on ESPN. Do I want to re-hash what countless sportswriters, analysts, and Skip Bayless have already beaten to death? Nah, that ain't me. So because I have waaaaay too much time on my hands, I decided to make 42 predictions about what is going to happen this year in Major League Baseball. And because I really had nothing better to do, I divided up the guesses into 5 categories, and even gave each category a quirky name. Once the season is over, I will go back and score myself on these sure-to-come-true predictions. So here they are:

The Robert DeNiro Movie: No matter how bad a movie is, you can always be assured that DeNiro will give an A+ performance. No matter how bad my other picks go, these should surely work out as planned.

1) The New York Yankees will repeat as World Series champions. This pains me an incredible amount considering I'm a Boston fan, but I have to admit it. The Yanks have Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, CC Sabathia, and Mariano Rivera, all of whom are among the best at their respective positions, if not the best. They upgraded from Johnny Damon to Curtis Granderson, and will be in the hunt for Joe Mauer. The train to the Commissioners' Trophy runs through the Bronx.

2) The Phillies will make it to their 3rd straight World Series. This team is an American League-caliber power playing in the National League. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, Cole Hamels, JA Happ, and now Roy Halladay will be too much for the rest of the NL to compete in a 5- or 7-game series. We're looking at a repeat of last year's Fall Classic.

3) Curtis Granderson will become a superstar. Under the dim lights of Detroit, Granderson became just the 3rd player ever to hit 20 home runs, 20 doubles, 20 triples, and steal 20 bases in a season in 2007. He has an above-average glove in centerfield, and is a huge step up from an aging Johnny Damon and a young, but not as good Melky Cabrera. Now that the New York spotlight is on him, expect the same numbers, only a lot more face-time for Granderson.

4) In a related note, the Tigers will realize that replacing Granderson with Damon will be an issue. Johnny Damon is one of the league's best leadoff hitters, has great speed, and above-average power.... What's that? It's not 2005? My bad. In 2010, Damon is one step slower, a liability in the outfield considering he throws like Smalls from The Sandlot before Benny taught him to throw, and has no more power than Granderson. Going from a 28-year-old star to a 36-year-old has-been = nothing good.

5) Steven Strasburg will be average at best this season. They are calling him the next big thing. But a year removed from San Diego State, rookie phenom Steven Strasburg of the Washington Nationals will not meet his comparisons with Nolan Ryan - at least not this year. With any hope, he'll start off in the minors, get plenty of time to get his confidence up, and then get the call to the big-time. The thing the Nats cannot afford to do is throw him too early and too often, especially if he does achieve early success. If they do, they could be getting into a Mark Prior situation.

6) Roy Halladay will be fine in the regular season, but come the playoffs, he'll be in for a rude awakening. Last season Cliff Lee pitched brilliantly in the second half of the season and the postseason for the Phillies. So what do they do? Trade him to Seattle for Halladay. While he may be a workhorse, Halladay has never come close to sniffing the postseason, with Boston and New York to deal with in the AL East. That lack of experience, plus the fact that eventually you've got to think he'll break down a little, could cause problems in October and November.

7) Albert Pujols will win another MVP. Let's go down the list at what Pujols is the best at: hitting for power, hitting to all fields, fielding at 1st base, decision-making. There is no one smarter or more talented than José Albert Pujols Alcantara on the planet. A perfect combination of size, power, brains, ability, and deceptive speed, there's no reason to believe he won't win his 4th MVP, and compete once again for the Triple Crown.

8) Ivan Rodriguez, Adam Kennedy, and Willy Tavares may be names, but it won't stop the Nationals from finishing last in the NL East. An aging superstar, another aging role player, and a fast centerfielder with no power won't be enough to get the worst team in baseball out of the basement in the NL East, especially when the division's top four teams (Philly, Atlanta, New York, Florida) are all contenders for a playoff spot.

9) 3 of these 5 managers will be fired by August 1st: Manny Acta, Dave Trembley, Dusty Baker, Lou Piniella, Cito Gaston. Here are who these 5 coach, respectively: Cleveland, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Chicago (NL), and Toronto. None of these teams improved over the winter, their opposition got better, and all will be near the bottom of their divisions except for Piniella, but time is running out for him at Wrigley. In a world where coaches and managers are fired ad nauseum, these are my 5 candidates who won't be able to handle the temperatures on the hot seat.

10) Texas will have one of the best offenses in baseball, but will be a .500 team. Every season it seems that Texas is found among the league leaders in home runs (2nd in the AL last year) and runs scored (top 6), yet they haven't won a division title or made the playoffs since 1999. Only twice have they finished above .500, even with the high-powered offense, and there's no reason to think things will change this year.

11) With the addition of Chone Figgins, Ichiro will score 120 runs. As I wrote 2 weeks ago, Chone Figgins going to Seattle drastically improves the Mariners' offense. With a solid 2-hitter who can move Ichiro into scoring position, I see no reason why he won't reach 120 runs for the first time since his rookie year in 2001.

12) ESPN won't be the same without Peter Gammons. Who knew that such a little man could have such an impact on the baseball world. No one was more respected in baseball media than Gammons, and the Worldwide Leader will have a hard time replacing him. The good news? He went to NESN, so Sox fans will be able to see him 130 times a year.

The Lindsay Lohan Return to Rehab: I'm expecting these to happen, and if they don't it wouldn't be the end of the world, but ultimately I would be surprised.

13) The only teams capable of beating the Yankees in a playoff series are the Red Sox and Mariners. In the playoffs two great pitchers can beat a great team (i.e. Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson beating the '01 Yankees). The Mariners have Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee. Boston has Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, then Jonathan Papelbon in the bullpen. The only hope anyone has of beating New York will be through pitching, and only these 2 have the depth.

14) Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum, and Jair Jurrjens will be the NL Cy Young candidates. Johnson and Jurrjens will almost single-handedly give their teams a chance at a playoff berth and will have breakout years. Lincecum has won the last 2 Cy Youngs, and now that he's making more than $600K, expect his happiness to equal numbers once again.

15) The NL West rides on the arm of Brandon Webb. Last year Webb was hurt and only pitched 4 innings. Not so coincidentally, the Diamondbacks finished last in the NL West, even though they had talent. The West isn't very strong this year, and if Webb can come back and pitch like he did in '08, Arizona could be contending for the division with Los Angeles.

16) These will be this year's playoff teams: AL - New York, Minnesota, Seattle, Boston (wild card) NL - Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Francisco, Atlanta (wild card)

17) The Royals will be 2nd in the AL Central on May 1st. By June 30th they will be last. For a split second last year, Zach Greinke and the Kansas City Royals were in 1st place in the division. A few weeks and a 9-game losing streak later, they were last, where they remained for the season. If they played every month like they do in April, they would be decent.

18) Joe Mauer, Lance Berkman, and Derek Jeter, all in their last year of their contracts, will stay. Joe Mauer may be the 2nd best player in baseball and deserve big-time money, but he's a Minnesota guy. Berkman has only a few years left, and he'd like to finish them in Houston. Derek Jeter being anything other than a New York Yankee is like The Funky Bunch without Marky Mark - it's not right. Don't even joke about it.

19) Ozzie Guillen will feud with Jake Peavy at least twice. Mark Buehrle was already given the Opening Day nod, even though Peavy is clearly a better pitcher. Peavy begrudgingly went to Chicago to begin with, and milked an injury so he didn't have to play. Guillen has the ability to piss off a Care Bear. Not good for Chi-Sox fans.

20) The NL East will be the best race. This division will be the most exciting to watch not because the division title will be close (Philly will run away with that), but because Atlanta, Florida, and the Mets all have a legitimate shot at a wild-card berth. These three could very easily be separated by a game or two in early October.

21) The AL West will be the 2nd best race. Seattle is an up and coming franchise with Lee and Figgins joining. The Angels have run away with the division recently, but lost Figgins and Lackey, two cornerstones to their success. Texas came on strong late, and have the offense to make some noise.

22) The Pirates will trade Zach Duke and/or Andrew McCutchen.These are the 2 best players in the Pittsburgh organization. Because of this, they will be traded. Look at whom the Pirates have gotten rid of in recent years: Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez, Xavier Nady, Nate McLouth, Adam LaRoche, Tom Gorzelanny, Jack Wilson. That's not a bad lineup, especially the outfield. Are the Pirates owners associated with the NBA in any way? Because they sure know how to tank like an NBA team.

23) With José Reyes back, David Wright will once again hit 25 home runs. The Mets were a truly atrocious power team. They couldn't hit home runs. Wright had only 10 homers and 72 runs batted in last year, down from 33 HRs and 124 RBIs in '08. With Reyes back, it will take a lot of the load off Wright, who can return to his normal self.

The Johnny Depp Academy Award: These predictions very well could happen, but no one would be surprised if they didn't.

24) This is the penultimate year for Mariano Rivera. Rivera is one of 2 Yankees I can respect (Jeter is the other), but he's not getting any younger. I think this year he will be typical Mo, but towards the end of the year I think we'll see the beginning of a slow transition.

25) Evan Longoria will win AL MVP. If he can cut down on the strikeouts (262 in 2 seasons), expect another 30 HR, 100 RBI, Gold Glove season for the 3rd year player. And with the injury-prone Rays who have no one nearly as complete as Longoria, he'll be a big reason why the Rays will be in the hunt for the wild card. The stats and impact will make him a candidate for MVP.

26) JA Happ and Jayson Werth will launch into superstardom. Happ, reigning NL Rookie of the Year, went 12-4 in 35 appearances (23 starts) last year with an earned run average of 2.93. And with Hamels, Halladay, and rookie Kyle Drabek in Philly with him, he won't have the pressure of an ace. Expect another big year from him. Werth, also a Phillie, hit 36 homers and drove in 99 runs to go along with 20 stolen bases. Like Happ, he has Rollins, Utley, and Howard to relieve pressure off him. Another spectacular season should come with more recognition.

27) Daisuke Matsuzaka will milk another injury in Boston. a guy who once threw 250 pitches in a game, Matsuzaka missed an awful lot of time last year for what appeared to be a minor injury. That was when he was the 2nd go-to guy on Boston. Now he's not the 1st (Beckett), 2nd (Lackey) or 3rd (Lester) guy in the rotation, something that can't make Dice-K too happy. I'm feeling another small injury being extended a month or two.

28) Managers of the Year: Don Wakamatsu, Bobby Cox. Wakamatsu is in his second year with Seattle. Last year he turned a bad team into a .500 one. Now he has the most improved team in the AL (if not all of baseball). Cox, meanwhile, is in his final year as the Braves manager, and with an improved team, should go out with a bang.

29) Brandon Webb and Garrett Atkins will be Comeback POY: Webb pitched all of 4 innings in '09. If he shows even remote signs of his 2008 form, the award is his. Atkins is new to Baltimore, and will be one of the only bright spots for the lowly O's.

30) The Marlins and Braves will be 2 of the NL's 5 best teams. Both teams improved drastically in the offseason, and now have a bit more experience. Josh Johnson will have a breakout year on the mound for Florida, as will Jair Jurrjens for Atlanta. Unfortunately, with the talent in Philly, only one of them will go to the playoffs.

31) Alfonso Soriano is no longer in his prime. By a long shot. He has failed to play 120 games in each of his last two seasons. He hasn't reached 75 RBIs since 2006. He barely reached his 2006 HR total (46) in '08 and '09 combined (49). He has always been a defensive liability. Going on 34, expect a quiet year.

32) Adam Lind will be the Blue Jays offense.The young DH hit 35 HRs and had 114 RBIs with an aging Vernon Wells and an unhappy Alex Rios. The only other good player was Aaron Hill. I think Hill is a bust this year (note to all you fantasy owners out there), which means Lind will have to carry the offense.

The Backstreet Boys Triumphant Comeback: These are the picks that I really, really want to happen. I am praying for them to happen. However, unlike the Backstreet Boys, I want them to happen for reasons other than being able to laugh hysterically.

33) Matt Holliday will redeem himself for last year's error. Ask any Cardinals fan what all but killed their playoff hopes and all will say it was Holliday's 9th-inning drop that cost St. Louis Game 2 against the Dodgers. Having a major man-crush on Holliday, I am very much hoping that this happens. He's too good a player to not come back from that.

34) Brad Lidge makes a triumphant comeback this year. In 2008 Lidge was the best closer in baseball, going a perfect 48-for-48 in helping Philly win the World Series. In '09 he was worse than Major League II. For such a nice guy, here's to hoping he thrives once again in 2010.

35) Chan Ho Park will be the next Chien Ming Wang for the Yankees. What were the Yanks thinking? Signing a 36-year-old who played for 4 teams the last 4 seasons to replace injury-prone Wang? If the champs have one glaring weakness, it's on the mound. It's CC, Mo, and occasionally AJ Burnett. And, most importantly, never Joba.

36) Griffey, Edmonds, and Vlad go out quietly. None ever took steroids. All had the careers to prove it: great in their primes, but once they hit 33 their bodies began to deteriorate. Two of the greatest defensive centerfielders ever (Griffey and Edmonds), two of the most feared hitters of his generation (Griffey and Vlad), and two of the best arms from the outfield (Griffey and Vlad), they will be missed dearly.

The Alba-Simpson-Mendes Collaborative Nude Scene: My personal favorite of the 5 categories. These picks will never ever happen in a million years. However, if any of them ever came true, much like the nude scene, I would be so beyond joy I might explode. Like there's a 99.99% chance of it happening.

37) In his 1st at-bat of interleague play, Joba Chamberlain gets hit by a 95 mph fastball. A bit mean? Yes. Do I care? Not even a little bit.

38) Tim McCarver says approximately 1.5 idiotic things per inning. This number is up from last year's 1.25 stupid things an inning. With age comes senility. Ah, the things I look forward to....

39) Manny will say it's his last season in LA, then it's not, then it is again at least 10 times. It's already happened once, and the players have barely gotten the winter rust off. For once it'll be nice to hear Manny complain, but not have to worry about it because it won't be in Boston.

40) Minka Kelly is shown on camera at least five times per game. Jeter's most recent (and appearing to be most permanent) arm candy stars in Friday Night Lights, and my heart. I would contemplate watching the Yankees more often if this were to happen.

41) On a related note, Kelly will put the same curse on Jeter that Kate Hudson put on A-Rod. A-Rod sucked with Hudson just 200 feet away. With any luck Jeter will do the same. (Note: If this turns out to be similar to what Kim Kardashian did to Reggie Bush and the Saints, I will lose all respect for her and her hotness)

42) After breaking the single-season passing, rushing, and receiving records by Week 6 of the NFL season, Tim Tebow signs with a contender, wins MVP in the LCS and World Series, and in doing so makes his case for the Baseball Hall of Fame. This will be followed by Tebow returning to the NFL and winning the Super Bowl on a last second 76-yard touchdown run. Merely reason #14,752 why Tim Tebow is a god.