Rex Ryan Victim of Foot-In-Mouth Syndrome (No, Not That Way People)

I don't know what it is with Rex Ryan. Maybe he has short-term memory loss. Or maybe he is just plain stupid. I'm going to go with the latter, and for the New York Jets, their coach's mouth is only giving them less and less of a chance come this weekend against the Patriots.

You would think a 45-3 blowout loss on national television would be enough to shut up the exuberant Ryan. Or even the players. But no. While Bill Belichick and Tom Brady -- perhaps the most lethal coach-quarterback combo in league history -- sit back quietly, going about their business as usual, Ryan has been in front of the microphone once again. Last week he called out Peyton Manning, who traditionally has had his number, calling it "personal." At the same time, he took a shot at Brady by saying that Manning studies harder than anyone in the league, specifically calling out Brady by name and saying he's not on the same level as Peyton. Well, the Jets scraped by on a last second field goal, so I guess Rexy is thinking that route worked once, it could work again. On Monday he ranted that it's not Jets versus Pats this week in the AFC Divisional Round. It's Ryan versus Belichick.

"It's about him against myself," said Ryan. "That's what it's going to come down to." Apparently the reason the Pats won by 43 points in what many were calling the most important regular season game in Jets history is because Ryan was outcoached and Belichick took advantage of the lack of preparation on Ryan's part. In some aspects, it's respectable that Ryan tried to take the blame. And yes, Belichick had his Patriots infinitely more prepared than the Jets. But how exactly is trash-talking going to make New York more prepared? I hope Ryan remembers last time, when he said he wanted to "kick Belichick's ass."

45-3 Rex. 45-3.

And then there is Braylon Edwards, who said that he remembers the Week 13 beatdown, but that at the end of the day thinks the Jets are the better team. The Jets are talented, and they easily could compete. But remember who has the best coach and best quarterback in the league. Remember who have five capable receivers who could have a big game on any given Sunday. Remember who has lit into every team they've played since Thanksgiving. (Hint: It's not the Jets!)

For New York, this is monumental. The Patriots are the pinnacle. Once they beat them, they can beat anyone, at least in their minds (well, they think they could beat the Lakers at basketball and the Yankees at baseball, but that's besides the point). At the same press conference Monday, Ryan said Belichick will go down as either the greatest coach ever, or one of the greatest. But somehow, even that sounded a little condescending, if that's even possible. It's like he was saying "Well, Bill's the best there ever was, but still..."

I get that Ryan wants to do anything to get Belichick to pay attention to him and get into his head, but by now he should know it's not going to work. It never has, it never will. But because he needs to beat the Patriots -- needs to -- he'll try anyways. Idiot.

That's the problem with this "rivalry." It's one-sided. To the Patriots, the Jets aren't anything spectacular. Belichick is the the smart point guard: he knows the game better than anyone else. He may not have the best team around him, but he has a superstar to go to, and he makes everyone better. Ryan, on the other hand, is the big doofy center: lots and lots of talk, but not enough for the talent he has. Sure, the center led his team to victory in Week 2 (a 28-14 Jets win), but the point guard was playing with a major injury (Randy Moss was still on the team). Once they healed (dumped Moss), they became unstoppable.

Now, could the Jets go out and compete, and possibly win? Absolutely. That is, if the organization would shut up. Because although all this talking may fire up the Jets, New England is taking it all in. There is no better "Eff You" team in the NFL -- maybe in all of sports -- than the Pats. They rarely ever talk. They just sit back and take everything in, keeping it inside until game time. That's when New England strikes. They score. And keep scoring. Then the game appears over, and you know what happens? They score some more. Belichick will gladly keep Brady out there to score 50 points. He doesn't care.

I don't want to hear the reasons for Ryan doing this. Some say it's to take pressure off his players -- especially Mark Sanchez -- so the media won't keep asking them about the Week 13 dud Gang Green put up. If that's the case, then Sanchez needs a newsflash: He was the fourth overall pick, he's in his second postseason, and he's the quarterback. He needs to be a big boy and face the pressure.

I don't think Sunday's game will be a rematch of Week 13. But I don't think the Jets have a chance. It's not because they don't have the talent, because on any given week anyone in the NFL can win or lose a game, no matter the opponent. It's because the Jets are going out again, talking smack like they are undefeated and winning every game by 40, instead of preparing. Meanwhile the Patriots are doing their usual thing, keeping quiet, letting the Jets have their moment.

It very well could be a close game, but if New England gets off to a fast start, don't be surprised if it gets very, very ugly, very, very quickly. And if that is the case, Rex Ryan has only himself to blame, for teasing the caged lion and not expecting it to attack once it's let loose.

You could say he would be putting his foot in his mouth (assuming it's not already there to begin with). Yes, I had to.

Adams Should Have Dumped His Entire Family

Bud Adams had a decision to make. Would he get rid of the coach who has been manning the sidelines for 16 seasons? Or would he go with the troubled quarterback who he has backed so many times before?

All things considered, the Tennessee Titans owner made a good call in choosing to bring back Jeff Fisher for a 17th season and ridding the organization of Vince Young, who will be either traded or released. But if Adams really wanted to do what is best for the Titans organization, he should have said good-riddance to both and started fresh.

If Adams' thought process was to choose one over the other, he made the right choice with Fisher. Had he dumped Fisher and kept Young aboard, it would basically be telling the players that they were bigger than the coach. And that is just setting a precedent that no coach should have to go through. That next coach would go in with the mindset that they had no power. If a player disagreed with something, they could go to the owner and get it fixed. Not getting enough touches? Not on the field enough? Go to Bud. He'll make sure you get some targets. Remember, this is a team with Randy Moss (for now). The last thing a new coach would need is to hear an aging, chemistry-killing whiner like Moss complain to the owner about how he's not getting playing time. And although he claims he wants to be a mentor for a young, budding star in Kenny Britt, we all know the diva in him would be bound to come out eventually.

And obviously having both VY and Fisher together is just too much of a hassle. To recap, Fisher never wanted to draft Young in the first place, but Adams did, so the owner won that battle. In the 2008 season opener Young was struggling and reacted poorly to the home crowd's boos. He refused to go in the game for a bit, then hurt his knee four plays later. Enter Kerry Collins, a 13-3 record, and the AFC's best record. Then last year, with Collins leading the team to an 0-6 start, Fisher finally relented and named Young the new starter. The team finished 8-8. But the success was short-lived, as in Week 2 of this year Young was pulled for the fourth quarter in a loss to the Steelers. Then, the tipping point. Week 11, Young hurts his thumb. He is apparently okay (he eventually went in injured reserve because of it), but Fisher refused to put him back in. The stories are conflicting. Young says he asked to go back in. Fisher claimed there was no such request. Either way, it ended with Young throwing his pads into the stands as he stormed into the locker room, then screaming at Fisher during the coach's post-game speech and walking out.

No, Adams made the right move in that respect. Coaches need to know they have more control than the players. And there is no shot of reconciling the relationship between the two.

But that leads me to this: why is Fisher still the coach? There are reports that the players backed Fisher and wanted him back, but their performance this season proved otherwise. There were times when they seemed to show little to no effort on the field, as if they were giving up on Fisher. The Titans lost eight of their last nine, and if you take out the two games against the Colts -- which were both very winnable in the last few minutes -- it was just a lackluster effort. Kerry Collins looked every bit of a 38-year-old man. Chris Johnson had no one blocking for him, but he also looked nothing like his 2009 form. The team looked stale.

Don't get me wrong. Jeff Fisher is a good football coach. But I think his time has run out in Tennessee. In 16 seasons what exactly has he accomplished? Three times he led the team to a 13-3 record. Okay, that's nice. But what differentiates a good coach from a great one is what they do in the postseason. And, well, his accomplishments are nothing special. He's been to the playoffs six times. The highlight was the one Super Bowl loss (remember "The Tackle"?) to the Rams in Super Bowl XXXIV. But since then? Divisional Round, AFC Title Game (2001, in which the Steelers were hosed in the Divisional Round on a B.S. roughing the kicker call in what was a classic Bill Cowher-jaw moment... but I digress), Divisional Round, Wild-Card, Divisional Round (with a first-round bye). That is nothing spectacular.

But perhaps most importantly, was there one time in any of those instances (2000, '02, '03, '07, '08) -- just one time -- when you seriously considered the Titans a threat to win the Super Bowl? Maybe in 2000, seeing as they were just one year removed from almost winning a title. But that was a decade ago. In 2008, when they went 13-3, the Colts and Steelers were considered the overwhelming favorites. With Fisher, the Titans will never have a two, three, or four win season. But there will never be that fear, that sense that they can go out and win a championship with Fisher at the helm and the personnel around him.

Bud Adams didn't make the wrong move in getting rid of Vince Young and keeping Jeff Fisher. But it wasn't the right move, either. It looks like next year could be rough for Tennessee. They don't have a quarterback. Chris Johnson -- all 5-11, 191 lbs of him -- has touched the ball 768 times the last two years in a league where running backs last an average of 2.7 years. The defense was 20th against the run and 29th against the pass.

Significant changes need to be made. Bud Adams made a good start. But now is the time to let go of Fisher, because otherwise a much more somber, and publicized, firing will have to occur.

You Haven't Done Nothin'

Stevie Wonder sure was right. Donovan McNabb hasn't done nothin'. The storyline going into Sunday's Redskins-Cowboys game was 'Skins coach Mike Shanahan's decision to bench starter McNabb in favor of Rex Grossman. When the announcement was made, Fletcher Smith, McNabb's agent, called the move "beyond disrespectful." Spare me. For all that McNabb has done in his career, Mike Shanahan and the Washington Redskins owe him nothing. And while I don't think the coaching staff has handled the situation properly, for Smith to play the "veteran-is-disrespected" card is just ridiculous.

In a phone interview, Smith said of the benching, "Disrespectful is probably not strong enough of a word. Donovan has handled himself with nothing but class, not just in Washington but as an ambassador for the league. To treat him this way ... it's beyond disrespectful." 


Newsflash to Fletcher: This is sports, where 99 percent of organizations demand results now (Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Pirates excluded) and for a quarterback who is in his first year on a new team, the past doesn't matter. What has Donovan McNabb done for the Redskins in his 12 years that Shanahan should think to himself "Gee, he's accomplished so much for me that I shouldn't be so quick to pull the plug."? Nothing, that's what. If this were Philadelphia, it would be different. In Philly, McNabb took the Eagles to the Super Bowl, five NFC Title Games and eight playoffs. He is the overwhelming franchise leader in every passing statistic, is 14th all-time in rushing and seventh in rushing touchdowns. In ten years fans will go to Lincoln Financial Field and see #5 alongside the other retired numbers in Eagles' lore.


But that is in Philadelphia. 


In Washington, none of that matters. Fact is, McNabb led the team to a 5-8 record and five losses in six games. He is 26th in the league in passer rating. Do you know who has a better passer rating than Donovan's 77.1? Jason Campbell. Alex Smith. Chad Henne. Carson Palmer. Do you realize how bad Carson Palmer has been this season? He's thrown 18 interceptions and had about 100 more dropped. He throws solely to Terrell Owens the majority of the time. And he's still got a higher rating than McNabb. 


McNabb has thrown more INTs (15) than TDs (14). He is 28th in completion percentage (58.3%). Fact is, because he is Donovan McNabb he got the starting nod because he, in theory, gave the team the best chance to win. If he were Jason Campbell, Alex Smith or Chad Henne, he probably would have been benched four weeks earlier. This is in some ways similar another quarterbacking situation involving He Who Shall Not Be Named On This Blog over in Minnesota, who wouldn't have been playing by Week 6 if he were Tarvaris Jackson.



Then there is the part where Smith said that McNabb deserves to start because he has "handled himself with nothing but class, not just in Washington but as an ambassador for the league." Unless you are doing something criminal or just plain stupid, that doesn't matter on the field. Charlie Batch has been recognized for his work in, among other things, helping underprivileged youth, those without food, those without shelter and advocating against gang violence. I would say he is a pretty good ambassador for the NFL. Yet when Ben Roethlisberger returned from his four-game suspension, I didn't see Batch's agent calling it "beyond disrespectful." And note that in the two games Batch started this season his passer rating (76.2) was not much worse than McNabb's, so this comparison isn't entirely dumb.


And the last two games of 2010 don't look good for him, either. Grossman didn't win against the Cowboys, but he didn't play poorly. His four touchdowns were two more than McNabb has thrown in any one game this year, and his two picks were something McNabb has done four times. Rexy's 93.7 rating topped all but two of McNabb's ratings, and he brought the team back from a 20-point deficit early in the third to tie the game with 7:37 to go. I mean, sure, it was against a Dallas defense that is 31st in points allowed, but some merit has to go into the comeback.


As for the off-season and beyond, well, that doesn't look too hot either. The five-year, $78 million extension he signed on Nov. 15 (which was followed by a 59-28 drubbing at the hands of the Eagles on Monday Night Football) has a clause where the team can get out the deal after the season. It is highly unlikely you will be seeing McNabb in the nation's capital next year.

For that, Redskins fans should only have one thing to say: All hail Rex Grossman!! Please draft Jake Locker!!

(NOTE: Stats from ESPN.com, pro-football-reference.com, and NFL.com)
Check back next week for my 2nd annual BCS prediction post!

Ten Weeks, Four Questions

The NFL season has passed the mid-way point, and it is time for a valid question to become clear. Who is the best team in football? In past years there was a clear answer. In 2007 it was the Patriots. In 2008 it was the Steelers and Titans. Last year the Colts and Saints. But this year? Oh how it is different. Every week we learn something new. We think things are finally beginning to settle down. Then the next week all that comes crashing down, and we have an entirely new set of "best teams." But this week, with many high-profile and divisional games, things will begin to pan out and shape the rest of the season. Many questions will be answered. Here are the four big questions to be answered starting Thursday night.

Is the AFC or NFC the early favorite for the Super Bowl? 
Thursday night sees quite arguably the the AFC's best team against the NFC's best team when the Falcons host the Ravens. Baltimore's defense is still one of the top five in the game, but they are beginning to show signs of weakness and age. They give up 104 yards a game on the ground, and face Michael Turner, who is coming off his best game of the year against the Buccaneers. The pass defense is fourth in the game, but they also haven't seen anyone nearly as good as the Matt Ryan-to-Roddy White connection. Meanwhile, the Falcons defense can't stop the pass, and Joe Flacco isn't quite an elite quarterback, but he's good enough for 250 yards and three  scores. Right now these two are considered the best in their conference. If one team kicks the crap out of the other, it could be a good indication as to which conference has the upper hand, and has the apparent advantage for Super Bowl XLV in Dallas.

Who is the best team in the AFC?
The Jets had this title to start the year, but lost it after a pathetic Week 1 showing offensively against Baltimore. If you asked two or three weeks ago, it was the Steelers. Too bad they couldn't show up on Halloween against the Saints, then needed a defensive stand in the red zone to stave off a comeback by the woeful Bengals. Their pass defense has looked like an issue as of late. Then the title went back to the Jets, who then got shut out by Green Bay and needed a collapse by the Lions to win in overtime. Then it moved to the Patriots. They didn't just lose to the Browns. They got the living crap kicked out of them. Now the Ravens have the title, which is at stake Thursday. If the Ravens lose, the title is once again up for grabs. And the 6-2 Steelers face the 6-2 Patriots Sunday. Expect this to be the game of the week. The Steelers secondary against a Patriots receiving corps that always seems to do well because Tom Brady is under center. The Patriots always-shaky secondary against the league's best quarterback at keeping plays alive and making cornerbacks cover receivers for six, seven, eight seconds. I am expecting a very close game. And the playoffs should be among the most exciting in years (at least on the AFC side), with the potential for the Jets, Patriots, Steelers and Ravens to play each other in some order for spots in the conference title game.

What will the AFC South look like?
The 4-4 Texans play the 4-4 Jaguars. The 5-3 Colts play the Bengals. The 5-3 Titans travel to Miami to play the Dolphins. For the Colts, this could be an upset game. Think about it: they just lost a tough road game against the Eagles, they are playing a 2-6 Bengals team at home and next week they travel to New England to take on a team that has perennially beaten them in the past. They need the Patriots win to keep pace with the rest of the conference. And they are beat to hell, with their receivers being Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and whoever else they could find off the streets of Indianapolis. Look for the Bengals to take their solid fourth quarter against the Steelers and continue that in Indy. I'm not saying Cincinnati will win, but don't expect a blowout. For Tennessee, the Dolphins are a dangerous team. And with Chad Pennington (who I honestly thought retired like last year) as the starter for Miami, the Titans' defense is guaranteed to see a mistake-free game from the quarterback position. Both the Titans and what's left of the Colts should win, but both could easily lose. and with the winner of the Texans-Jaguars game at 5-4, there could conceivably be a three-way tie for first place, with the last place team a game behind. There could also be a two-way tie, with the Houston-Jacksonville winner still fine and the last place team in a bit of a hole. The shaping of the division will be a lot more clear after this week.

Will the Giants essentially clinch the NFC East come Tuesday morning? 
As ugly as the Giants have looked at times this season (see: Weeks 1-3, Week 6 against the Lions), they are 6-2 and considered an NFC favorite. Their ability to not only get to the quarterback, but to throttle them and somehow injure all of them is incredible. Of course, their ability to turn the ball over is just as incredible. But with the dreadful, discombobulated, drama-filled 1-7 Cowboys coming to East Rutherford Sunday, theory has it they should cruise. It is Monday night's matchup that could determine the rest of their season when the Eagles play the Redskins. With a Philadelphia win, the Eagles would go to 6-3 and remain a game back (this is assuming the Giants take care of business). If Washington wins, both the 'Skins and Iggles will be 5-4 and two games back. This puts the Giants in a much more comfortable position. They still won't be able to put it on cruise control, but it means a slip-up later in the year (say, a loss to Jacksonville or Minnesota) wouldn't be as bad.

This is a key week. Soon it will be put-up-or-shut-up for many teams. Especially this year, where only a handful of teams are out of the mix already and seemingly anyone can lose on any given week, every game is important. It has been a long time since there has been such little dominance by any one team, and there are no guarantees for anyone going forward. But Week 10 of the season should see the start of things clearing up, as only six games affect nearly half the league.

Brett Favre Needs to Stop Streaking

There are a decent amount of things I hate in sports. These include, among others: Alex Rodriguez, LeBron James, Tom Brady, Notre Dame football and when people say "we" when talking about their favorite team (you are not a member of the organization, therefore you cannot say you are a part of the team). Before this season, I didn't hate Brett Favre. I still have few ill feelings towards the man. I personally think he should have retired after last year, but I understood why he couldn't let go. However, I hate... no, no, I loathe, that damn consecutive games streak, because it is the only reason Favre played last week, it is the only reason he will play this week, it is the only reason he will play the remaining ten games. This stupid streak is only causing more harm than good.

The only good thing I can say about this streak is that people should cherish it while it lasts, because there will never be another streak like it. Football is too physical, the players are too fast and too strong, and a player playing 19 seasons will be unfathomable going forward. But now, this streak is beginning to look like the last three seasons of Scrubs. It should have gone away once NBC dropped it (in Favre's case, when Green Bay GM Ted Thompson told him it was now Aaron Rodgers' team), it was stale and worn out when it changed networks, and the last season was just pathetic. But no, Favre came back, and heck, last year he had one of his best statistical seasons ever.

But because of this streak, this terrible, horrible, no good, very bad streak, he came back again this year. I can guarantee that if he got hurt in, say, 1996 and missed a game, he would have retired a Packer. But no he didn't! And a bum ankle be damned, Dr. James Andrews did his magic and number 4 was dressed up for the purple and gold for Week 1. Last week he was questionable, but sucked it up, threw three interceptions and was called out by head coach Brad Childress. Now it was admitted this week that he has two fractures around the ankle. Normally most people would sit out a week or two, but Brett Favre isn't most people now is he? Because he has to start, he's going to miss practice (because as he showed this pre-season and last week, he doesn't need practice), wear a walking boot and throw three picks as the Vikings go to 2-5 and get lambasted by the Patriots.

And it's not like Brad Childress has a choice as to playing Favre or not. Tarvaris Jackson is the backup, and a 42-year-old man with a crappy ankle and an off-the-field distraction is better than him. And because Favre loafed around, Jackson is the team's only other option. It wasn't a QB-heavy draft this year, so one who was available (i.e. Jimmy Clausen or Colt McCoy) would not have been game-ready. And because Favre waited until Jared Allen, Ryan Longwell and Steve Hutchinson had to physically drag him off his lawnmower the team couldn't enter in the sweepstakes for a Donovan McNabb, Jason Campbell, or even Jake Delhomme (just as many picks, only fewer distractions). And more importantly for Childress, if he benched Favre, he would go down forever as the Man Who Ended the Streak. I mean, he was blasted by the media for calling out Favre's three picks against the Packers! Did you see the one that was returned for a touchdown? Even Jay Cutler laughed at that. The media firestorm that would ensue if he actually had the chutzpah to bench THE Brett Favre would officially end the world. ESPN is already Brett Favre Central, but with that it would become BFPN (Brett Favre Programming Network).

(Semi-related tangent: People are wondering if his legacy is being tarnished. Obviously it is. What's really bothering me, though, is that people are considering him a Top-3 quarterback of all-time. This is insane. My list of all-time great QBs is: Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Johnny Unitas, Peyton Manning (will be higher by the time all is said and done), John Elway, Tom Brady, possibly Steve Young, then Favre. That's eighth. Call me cynical, but I don't care if he leads in every major statistical category known to man. Look at stats per game. Manning, Brady and Marino have/had more passing yards and wins. Everyone except Marino have championships to their resumé (and Montana, Unitas, Elway and Brady have multiple), so Favre's lone ring doesn't exactly stand out. And he throws significantly more picks than all those names, especially in crunch time. This season is worse than others for Favre, obviously, but the poor decisions are nothing new. I would not have him in my top 10 for quarterbacks I want down four with a minute to go in the Super Bowl (the seven I mentioned before, then add in Bradshaw, Staubach, Otto Graham and possibly Bart Starr). In short, Favre is a sure-fire Hall of Famer. But he's not the greatest ever.)

Of course Favre is going to start Sunday in Foxboro. He's started 291 straight games. And although he should have retired after start 253, then after 269 and then after 285, he'll keep the streak going. At this point it is the only thing going for him. He is no longer "playing like a kid out there." That kid looks old, tired and ready to go home. His facial expression after almost every play reads "I don't care if $24 million will buy me 7884 John Deere tractors. Just let me hand it off to Adrian Peterson and get me the hell out of here."

For someone who just wants this streak to end so he can retire and go away for good, I am waiting for Dec. 12 when the Giants go to Minnesota. They've already hurt five quarterbacks this year. I can only imagine what they'll do to a 42-year-old grandfather.

America's Pastime: 1869-2010

America's Pastime, 141, beloved game run by William "Bud" Selig, passed away Monday night at Yankee Stadium. Although fighting to the very end, more people ended up watching the Jaguars and Titans on Monday Night Football than Game 3 of the ALCS. Six and a half million viewers saw Cliff Lee throw eight innings of shutout baseball, striking out 13. Over seven million people watched a 27-point blowout between two low market franchises (one of which can't even sell out their home games), both of whom had backup quarterbacks in by halftime. It was a long time coming. Pastime faced recent struggles with performance-enhancing drugs, threats of strikes and this. With homes in 28 cities, including two each in New York and Chicago, America's Pastime brought joy to millions of people for decades. It produced some of the country's most celebrated icons, including Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Willie Mays and Drew Henson. It also helped the country go through some of it's most difficult times -- the Great Depression, World War II, 9/11 and that year and a half when everyone was really into the Baha Men. Pastime leaves behind it's 30 organizations (well, actually it's 29 real organizations, plus the Pirates). Funeral services will be held on Sunday, October 24, at 1 p.m. at the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY. An evening service will be held Monday night. Now I don't know about everyone else, but I can't make it. That's during my football time, and no one interrupts me during my NFL time. Besides, the Steelers are actually on TV for once. And then it's Monday Night Football. Giants-Cowboys, in fact. And won't it be really fun to watch the Giants look completely disorganized, yet somehow look really good at the same time? And then there are the Cowboys! 1-4 baby! I'm not sure what's funnier: Jerry Jones giving Wade Phillips a vote of confidence, Tony Romo's "Grr.... does anyone really believe I'm mad?" face, or the prospect of bringing the excessive-celebration-penalty-to-wins ratio up to 3:1. What's that? I'm digressing? From what? Oh, right America's Pastime... Eh, no one cares anyways.

The game of baseball will go on as normal. However, "America's Pastime" has officially died. America's new pastime will now be exclusively on Sundays (and Monday nights. And starting in November, Thursday nights. And near Christmas, Saturday nights).

My Super, Extra Long NFL Prediction Special

I don't know why I put myself through this. Because my baseball predictions from March are going so well (haha) I might as well show off my amazing credibility by making more predictions for the upcoming football season. However, as opposed to the baseball post, where there were random guesses as to what would happen, this will be a little more structured, as I'll go team by team and make a prediction of some sort for each. And guess what? All of them will come true, because I said they would! At the end of the season I'll go back and see how I did.

Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals will not finish above .500 for the season. Kurt Warner was a great comeback story, he had a heck of an arm, and he had Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to catch passes. Well, Warner retired, Matt Leinart inexplicably lost his starting job to Derek Anderson and got himself released, and Boldin bolted for Baltimore (though Early Doucet should fill his spot quite nicely). But with such a decline at the quarterback position, everyone is affected. Fitzgerald hasn't had nearly the success without Warner at the helm. The running game was 28th in the league, and will need to improve greatly. The defense was below average against the pass and one of the worst against the run (and they actually got worse defensively with the loss of Antrel Rolle). Even with the league's easiest schedule, Arizona won't be making a third consecutive post-season trip. There are too many questions in too many positions.

Atlanta Falcons: The team will win 5 of their last 6 games, but miss the playoffs. I like the Falcons this year. Matt Ryan will rebound after an inexplicable sophomore slump. Michael Turner's ankle is back to 100% and he will easily get 1200 yards and score 12-15 times. Roddy White is quietly a very good receiver. Their defense has some issues, and will give up a lot of yards through the air, but even that isn't what bothers me. It's their schedule. Based on last year's records, Atlanta has the 20th hardest schedule. But looking at it, the first half of the year is brutal. They could easily begin the season 1-3 (lose at Pittsburgh, beat Arizona, lose at New Orleans, and to San Francisco). The two weeks going into the bye they have to travel to Philly, which is a brutal environment to play in, and host defending AFC North champion Cincinnati. They also play Baltimore and Green Bay. Before they get to Week 13 they could easily have 7 losses. After Green Bay, the team will beat up on Tampa Bay, Carolina, Seattle, the New Orleans backups, and Carolina again and make a late push for a wild-card berth, but I don't think the defense is good enough to overcome the ridiculous first half of the schedule.

Baltimore Ravens: Ladies and gentlemen, your AFC champions. I hate to say it, but the Ravens have the potential to be scary good. Joe Flacco is prepped to have a breakout year, he now has Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmandzadeh to throw to along with Mark Clayton, Todd Heap, and Ray Rice. Plus, he's young but has playoff experience already. I love that in him. Rice is perhaps the most complete back in football, with the ability to run, catch, and block. Le'Ron McClain is a beast of a fullback, and Willis McGahee is a solid backup. And do I need to mention the defense? Ray Lewis may not be in his 20s anymore, but he's still the best. Terrell Suggs has always been one of the most underrated linebackers in football. Haloti Ngata is a force to be reckoned with on the defensive line. Tom Zbikowski came on strong late last year, and I like his play-making ability as well as his ability to hit hard. The only issue will be the presence of Ed Reed, who will miss at least the first six weeks of the season with a hip injury. If he can come back, his ball-hawking will be the difference between a great defense and the best defense in the AFC (with the only possible exception being the Jets). As a Pittsburgh fan, Baltimore terrifies me this year.

Buffalo Bills: CJ Spiller will be the lone bright spot. Simply put, the Bills aren't very good. Lee Evans has been the best wide receiver for what seems like ages now, what with Terrell Owens not working out like Buffalo had hoped. And this just in: Lee Evans is talented, but if he is your best receiver since Eric Moulds, the team has issues. Trent Edwards is the one throwing the ball. He is a mediocre quarterback at best. The defense gave up the 2nd fewest passing yards last season, but that's probably because they were 30th in rush defense, so everybody shoved the ball down their throats. Even with Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, the team drafted the electric Spiller out of Clemson. A good choice indeed. He can bring a firepower the offense has missed greatly for most of the last decade. If nothing more, he will bring some attention to Buffalo. My pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, as he gains 900 yards and scores 6 times.

Carolina Panthers: Matt Moore will lead the charge and challenge for a wild-card berth. Last year Jake Delhomme was a wreck, throwing 18 interceptions to just 8 touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 59.4. The team went 4-7. In comes Matt Moore, who throws 8 TDs and just 1 INT and the team finishes the year 4-1. And not only that, but they beat NFC runner-up Minnesota and obliterated a Giants team vying for a wild-card spot (they also beat New Orleans, but most of the starter didn't play). The team still has DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, both of whom eclipsed 1000 yards rushing, and a defense that was 4th-best against the pass. If they can improve the run defense, they are definitely a team who can contend for a wild-card spot. Seeing as the explosive Saints are in their division, however, they are probably a year away from contending in the divison.

Chicago Bears: The team will not win five games. Why is everyone still so up-in-arms over Jay Cutler? In his three full years as a starter his interceptions have gone up (from 14 to 18 to 26 last year), his yards per reception and quarterback rating have gone down, and his record as a starter is 24-29. Yet he is still projected to be a Top-10 fantasy quarterback, and people are raving that new offensive coordinator Mike Martz and his offensive genius will turn Cutler's performance around. Because Martz's recent coaching jobs were so good that Cutler just has to be fantastic! Since, you know, when he was the Lions' coordinator in '06 and '07 the team threw more interceptions (44) than touchdowns (40), and in San Francisco in '08 JT O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill blew the league away. The rushing attack is terrible (29th last year, no major changes), there's not really anyone for Cutler to throw to (Devin Hester and Johnny Knox are the top two receivers. Yikes), and the defense has no playmakers. Brian Urlacher is old and has a multitude of injuries, and Julius Peppers is just an overpaid defensive end. I say they split with Detroit, beat the Seahawks at home, and take down the Bills in Buffalo to finish 3-13. (Oh, and since I couldn't fit him in anywhere, I want to mention Devin Aromashodu. Not because he will have a great year or anything. I just love saying his name)

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals won't repeat as AFC North champions. Last year the Bengals were blessed by someone up above, which is pretty impressive considering they have Chad Ochocinco on their team. All the pieces fell into place perfectly. They had the 10th weakest schedule in the league. The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers (of course I had to add the title) had the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL yet lost Troy Polamalu for much of the season. They somehow managed to lose to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns. The Ravens lost Ed Reed for the majority of the season as well. Both defenses were good, but not great as a result of those losses. This year Polamalu is back, so I expect the Steelers' defense to look a lot more like their 2008 form. Plus the Bengals have the 4th toughest schedule this year, which includes traveling to New England, New York to face the Jets, and Indy, and hosting New Orleans. Chad Ochocinco is not a consistent number-one receiver anymore, and neither is Terrell Owens. That won't help an offense that was 26th in passing yards in '09. In fact, the egos might clash. They will be a wild-card contender, but I think asking for another division title is a bit much.

Cleveland Browns: Colt McCoy will start the final five games of the season. Someone in Cleveland must have been thinking LeBron James was going to stay, because the Browns gained absolutely zero star power this off-season. Instead, they handed Jake Delhomme $7 million to throw 18 more interceptions. The team is easily one of the worst in football. They didn't have a 1000 yard running back or receiver. Delhomme has not been good in over two years (5 INTs in one playoff game, anyone?). The only positive thing I can say is that when the Browns play host to the Panthers in Week 12, Delhomme will finally complete some of his passes to a Panthers player. This pre-season McCoy didn't impress much. Sure, he completed 71% of his passes, but didn't have a completion over 17 yards and was sacked 6 times. He didn't throw a touchdown pass. But, sadly, that might still be enough to get a starting nod late in the season when Delhomme nears the 20-interception mark and the team is out of playoff contention. If he is the future of the franchise, he's got to get his feet wet eventually. Might as well be later this year.

Dallas Cowboys: NFC East champs, get to the Divisional Round, that's it though. The Cowboys went 11-5 last year, with an explosive offense and a defense whose weakness was in the secondary. Tony Romo is coming off a career year (4483 yards, 26 TDs), but I question the receiving corps a little bit. Miles Austin is the only proven one, but remember that he's only started 9 games in his career. Roy E. Williams is overpaid and overrated, and the only reason he is going to start Week 1 is because first round pick Dez Bryant hurt his ankle. Eventually Bryant will take over, and people are already calling him the next big thing. I think he'll be very good, but it will take him some time to get used to the NFL. He hasn't played a game in over a year because of his suspension for lying to NCAA officials. Now he has to work his way back from an injury while learning a new system. I am being nit-picky here, though, because the running game is dynamic, Jason Witten is a fantastic pass catcher as well as blocker, and DeMarcus Ware leads the fairly solid defense. But I don't think they are better than Green Bay or Minnesota. Fortunately we'll get to compare the teams because Dallas is forced to travel to both places over the span of the year. If they go 11-5 again with the league's 2nd toughest schedule, I'd be impressed.

Denver Broncos: Kyle Orton will prove he's worth the $9 million extension he signed. All signs point towards Orton playing all of this year, then the team handing the reigns to either Brady Quinn or Tim Tebow. But the Broncos extended Orton's contract anyways, giving him an extra year worth $9 million through 2011. Now, to me getting Brady Quinn in a trade and then drafting Tebow made absolutely no sense. I can't see why Josh McDaniels is unhappy with 3800 yards and 21 TDs. He threw 12 picks, but 6 of them came in two games (3 each versus Pittsburgh and Kansas City). His quarterback rating over the final four games, when the team collapsed completely and failed to make the playoffs after a 6-0 start, 85.9, or right around his QB rating for the season. He isn't on the same level as, say, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, but neither Quinn or Tebow will ever be elite field generals either. As much as I love Tebow, I don't think he'll ever be more than an average quarterback in the NFL. Orton is better than both of the other options, and he'll prove it with 3500 yards and 25 touchdowns this year. It's a shame the loss of Elvis Dumervil will mean the defense is terrible, and the team could finish anywhere from second to last in the division.

Detroit Lions: The team might actually look like a football team (gasp!) The Matt Millen era is disappearing more and more each day, and the team might actually not be terribly, horribly atrocious. Don't get me wrong, they are not a playoff team by any stretch of the imagination, especially with two of the four best teams in the NFC (Green Bay and Minnesota) in their division.
However, the organization is taking the right steps. Matthew Stafford is in his second year behind center, and although he made rookie mistakes (20 INTs) his first year, he also showed flashes of potential. He has a big target in Calvin Johnson. Megatron had a bad year in '09, but with Nate Burleson there to distract DBs I think he'll have 1200 yards and 8-10 touchdowns once again (at least he better, considering he's my most reliable fantasy receiver compared to the hit-or-miss Percy Harvin and Mike Wallace). Rookie Jahvid Best can be electric. Defensively #2 overall draft pick Ndamukong Suh is already the target of double-teams on the offensive line, he decapitated Jake Delhomme in a pre-season game, and looks very much like he could dominate the league for the next decade. With new additions Corey Williams and Kyle Vanden Bosch, the defensive line could be really good. Expect five to six wins for the upbeat Lions this season.

Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl champions. Last year the Packers might have been one of the four best teams in the NFC, but lost in overtime to the Cardinals in the Wild Card round of the playoffs (after storming back from 21 down in the 3rd to force OT). Aaron Rodgers, breakout star from a year ago, played magnificently in the second half of that game, and now has at least a little playoff experience under his belt. He is the trendy pick my many to win the league MVP award. He has weapons around him in Greg Jennings, Donald Driver (who at 35 can still catch with the best of them), Jermichael Finley, and the most under-appreciated back in football, Ryan Grant. The offense can put up points in a hurry via air or ground, and although they gave up 51 points in the playoff loss in Arizona, have plenty of playmakers defensively. BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, and AJ Hawk lead the front seven that love to put pressure on quarterbacks. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson is at cornerback, and safety Nick Collins has 13 interceptions the past two years. For what it's worth, the team had a great pre-season. Can they carry it all the way to Dallas for Super Bowl XLV?

Houston Texans: Andre Johnson will finally get the title he deserves: Best receiver in the league. Three of the last four years Johnson has surpassed 100 receptions, with 2007 being the exception only because he missed seven games due to injury. Each of the last two years he has led the league in yards by wide margins (144 in '08 and 221 last year). He is constantly double teamed, seeing as Kevin Walter does not strike fear in defenses, yet is big enough (6-3, 228 lbs) and fast enough to cut through secondaries everywhere. Unfortunately, if you don't play fantasy football, chances are you didn't realize how dominant Johnson has been recently (he does play in Houston after all...). But this year will be different. He will finally be recognized as the hands-down best receiver the NFL has to offer. 1500 more yards will be what it takes, but he's good for it.

Indianapolis Colts: Another division title, 13 more wins, home-field advantage, etc... My goal was to make a not-obvious prediction, or at least one that would generate talk amongst the thousands of readers I have. But it's incredibly hard to think of something for a team that has been to the playoffs 10 of the last 11 years, won 6 of the last 7 AFC South titles, had 8 consecutive 10-win seasons (including 7 straight seasons of 12+ wins), advanced to at least the Divisional Round of the playoffs in 6 of 7 years, and won a Super Bowl. The Colts have done all of this, still have Peyton Manning, the best quarterback of this generation, and play in a weak division (are 15-1all-time against Houston, can't be stopped by Tennessee, and then the laughingstock Jaguars). There's not much more that can be predicted. There won't be a drop-off in wins. I don't think they are going to win the Super Bowl. I'll take the easy route here and just say the following: 13-3 record, first-round bye, beat the 5th-seeded Steelers in the Divisional Round, then lose to Baltimore in the Conference Title Game. (To see my entire playoff prediction, see here.)

Jacksonville Jaguars: David Garrard is in his last season as the starter. This team is going to struggle mightily. Garrard basically has Mike Sims-Walker to throw to and Maurice Jones-Drew to hand off to, and that's it. The defense can't stop the pass, and is mediocre at stopping the run. Chris Johnson will run freely, and Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub will feast on the secondary. Those are six losses, and that's even before you include losing to three of the four NFC East teams, San Diego, Kansas City, and possibly Oakland. Garrard isn't a terrible quarterback. His quarterback rating in '06, '08 and '09 were around the league average, and in '07 it was among the best in the AFC. He has surpassed 3500 yards each of the last two seasons. He's a solid quarterback. But in a division with Manning and Schaub, to keep up and hope for a playoff spot, the team needs a franchise quarterback. The best hope for the Jags is that they can finish poorly enough to have the worst or 2nd-worst record among them, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Seattle. That way they can get Jake Locker (unlikely though... they aren't bad enough to get the #1 pick) or Florida State's Christian Ponder. Because if they don't get either of those two, the quarterback position is weak in this year's draft class, and they will be stuck in the AFC South basement for a while otherwise.

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs will finish 2nd in the AFC West. This could easily happen. This could just easily come back to haunt me. With Charlie Weis as Matt Cassel's offensive coordinator once again, the third year starter knows most of the offense from his days in New England (though he rarely got to run it in a real-game scenario). That comfort should improve the passing attack that was 25th in the league last year. Then there's the one-two combo of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in the backfield. Charles broke out the last four games of '09, running for 658 yards over that stretch, including a 259-yard effort in the season finale at Denver that officially completed the Broncos' epic collapse. His complement is Thomas Jones, who ran for 1400 yards himself in New York. He's expected to be a second wind in the running game, but expect him to have a bigger impact than other aging backs will have (like, per se, LaDainian Tomlinson in New York). That has the potential to be a Top-5 running game. The defense was a mess, especially against the run (31st in the league). Safety Eric Berry is drawing comparisons to Troy Polamalu already, so the passing defense should improve significantly if that is the case. If they can score enough, they could have a good year. Not a playoff-type year, but a step up from 4-12.

Miami Dolphins: The Wildcat will be no more after this season. Remember that joyous late September afternoon two years ago in Foxboro? When Chad Pennington ran to the sideline and lined up as a receiver? When Ronnie Brown took the snaps directly and ran circles around the Patriots' defense, thus ending the team's 21-game winning streak with a 31-13 beatdown? I do too -- quite vividly actually -- and that's when the wildcat became the fad in the NFL. Last year the Eagles tried it with Michael Vick, and before Pat White was cut by Miami this past week, he ran the offense some of the time for the Fins. But last year coordinators began figuring the formation out. Half of the battle for opposing teams is figuring out whether the person taking the snap is going to run or pass. The Dolphins were just 2-for-11 in the passing department in '09, essentially cutting the offense's effectiveness in half. And with Ronnie Brown having a slew of injuries in the past, Ricky Williams being 33, and Pat White cut, who is going to want to run the offense on a consistent basis? Chad Henne came on strong late in the year at QB, and I think the wildcat will be overlooked, in favor of a more prolific passing attack now that Brandon Marshall is there to throw at.

Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson will fumble fewer than five times. This one might be asking for too much. Peterson is one of the league's best backs, but his downfall has been his inability to hold onto the football. In three seasons he has put the ball on the turf 19 times. That doesn't include the two fumbles in the NFC Championship Game. Typically, the general belief is "Once a fumbler, always a fumbler", with the only exception being Tiki Barber. However most of Peterson's fumbles have been when he's fought for extra yards. If he can learn when to go down, he will cut down on the fumbles. Hopefully Brett Favre gets that through his head.

New England Patriots: Wes Welker will have 120 catches. This guy has got to be a freak of nature. Nine months after tearing his ACL and MCL he was back on the field, participating in contact drills, running routes with his typical precision, and looking confident in his cuts. That just doesn't happen. But for someone who works as hard as Welker, I guess I shouldn't be that surprised. Each of the last three seasons he has surpassed 110 catches and 1100 yards. Last year was his best, catching 123 balls and gaining over 1300 yards in only fourteen games. Most people coming back from re-constructive knee surgery need a year to fully return to peak status (even Golden Boy Tom Brady had an "off" year, at least for him), especially at receiver, a position at which fear of making sharp cuts is killer. But the knee will be fine, and Welker will be back to tip-top form in no time and Bill Belichick should have nothing to worry about there. Now if only he could say the same thing about his defense...

New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees will snap the Madden curse. Daunte Culpepper threw 23 interceptions, then blew out his knees and was never the same player. Marshall Faulk never had another 1000 yard season. Michael Vick broke his fibula in the pre-season. Ray Lewis did not record an interception for the first time, then broke his wrist in Week 15. Donovan McNabb suffered a sports hernia. Shaun Alexander broke his foot and never returned to form. Brett Favre threw 22 picks. Troy Polamalu missed most of the year with a knee injury suffered in Week 1. What do all of these random tid-bits have in common? Each player was on the cover of the most recent Madden game at the time. Aren't you pumped to be on the cover this year Drew!? Brees, though, will be the black sheep of this group. With all of the rules against hitting quarterbacks now, and Brees' durability (two missed starts the last seven seasons, one of which was Sean Payton's decision to rest the starters in Week 17 last year), he will play the whole season, he will throw for 4200 yards and 30 TDs, and he will be in the MVP race. The Saints will repeat as division champs, lose at Lambeau in the conference title game, and Who Dat Nation will be happy.

New York Giants: Brandon Jacobs will be ineffective once again, and the team will release him. After back-to-back 1000 yard seasons in 2007 and 2008, the monster Jacobs had an abysmal 2009 campaign, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and scoring only 5 times en route to 835 yards. This came after he signed a 4-year/$25 million contract extension last February. And after learning that he officially lost his starting job to Ahmad Bradshaw, Jacobs' attitude does not bode for a good year. He told Jill Seward of NESN that it is "hard to stay positive" and blamed the culture of the league for his demotion. I guess seeing your yards per carry decrease by a yard and touchdowns decrease by ten isn't reason enough for a demotion. It's all the league's fault. Seward wrote, "But apparently, sharing the spotlight wasn't on Jacobs' agenda this season." With that kind of attitude, I see no reason why his numbers should improve.

New York Jets: Mark Sanchez will cost the team 1-2 wins, and possibly a Super Bowl. With Darrelle Revis back, the Jets strengthened their case for best defense in the league. Revis Island at one corner, Antonio Cromartie at the other, Bart Scott anchoring the linebackers, and Kris Jenkins plugging up the middle, it's going to be very hard for teams to score. Defense certainly won't be an issue for Gang Green. Offensively, I don't think substituting shut-up-and-run Thomas Jones for diva LaDainian Tomlinson was a good idea, but Shonn Greene will have a breakout year anyways, so the running game will be fine, too. It is Sanchez I'm worried about. There's something about him that I just don't feel comfortable with. He had a solid rookie year, and now has more weapons around him. But Braylon Edwards gets a case of the dropsies often, Santonio Holmes is suspended to start the year, and Nate Washington was cut. He was a manage-the-game type quarterback, which worked seeing as the team went to the AFC Title Game, but to get over the hump and win the Super Bowl, teams need a quarterback to lead them in today's pass-happy league. Look at the last decade of Super Bowl champions. Only the '01 Ravens won with an average quarterback (Trent Dilfer). Since, every team has had a top-flight QB under center. The good news is his breakout game was in the playoffs against Indy (17-for-30, 257 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), but it was only the third time he surpassed 250 yards in a single game. He didn't lead any comeback drives, either. All of this leads me to believe that the Jets might be a year away, because Sanchez isn't ready to be an elite quarterback.

Oakland Raiders: Jason Campbell will carry this team to the 6-win mark. With JaMarcus Russell finally gone, replaced by the competent-but-not-flashy Campbell, the team is beginning to go in the right direction. Michael Bush and Darren McFadden are a decent one-two punch at running back. Zach Miller is one of the better tight ends in the league. The receivers are not very good, which will hold back the capabilities of the offense, but it will be an improvement over last year. Defensively Richard Seymour and Rolando McClain lead the front seven, Nnamdi Asomugha is the league's second-best shutdown corner behind Darrelle Revis, plus my boy Tyvon Branch is consistent at safety, totaling 124 tackles last year. They aren't good, but they aren't terrible, either. 6 wins is very doable with a somewhat fair schedule.

Philadelphia Eagles: Trading Donovan McNabb will come back to haunt the Eagles. The team trading franchise quarterback McNabb to "hated division rival" Washington in the off-season made me mad because it furthered my theory that there is no true rivalry in sports anymore. But in the seemingly up-for-grabs NFC East, it could very well be Philly who will regret trading the cornerstone of their franchise within the division. Now they have a first-year starter in Kevin Kolb going up against NFL defenses plus the feisty Philadelphia sports fans, a running back in LeSean McCoy who basically has to be the entire rushing attack, and two deep threat receivers (DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin) who could be hit-or-miss. The defense is expected to be one of the league's best, but looking at the depth chart nothing looks that special about it. Trent Cole will be a force at defensive end and Asante Samuel has play-making ability, but other than that no real threat appears to be there. Besides, McNabb knows the defense, including how to beat them. Two Redskins victories right there. The team also hasn't won in Dallas since 2007, and were beat down there twice in consecutive weeks (a 24-0 whopping in Week 17 then an equally as bad 34-14 playoff loss), so that's another loss. The secondary is vulnerable to the pass, and they have to face Green Bay, Indy, Houston, and Minnesota. At least two losses there. With the veteran McNabb, I give the team a shot in all of those games. But with the untested Kolb, I'm not so sure.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The defense will return to its 2008 form. The 2008 defense was one of the best ever. They led every major statistical category except rushing yards allowed, which they were 2nd. That defense anchored the team that would go on to win the Super Bowl. The 2009 squad looked the same except for Larry Foote was replaced by Lawrence Timmons. But injuries to Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith decimated the team, as the defense was shaky against the pass and could not hold 4th quarter leads. This year both players are back. Smith is quiet, but very consistent and is another body that needs to be accounted for, freeing up James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. Polamalu is the most indispensable player undoubtedly, as his play-making abilities allow for the corners to take more risks. Barring another injury to the knee, the presence of #43 will make the Pittsburgh D look a lot more intimidating, which is good considering they'll be without Ben Roethlisberger for the first four games.

San Diego Chargers: The probable loss of Vincent Jackson will hurt the Bolts. Perhaps the breakout receiver from last year was Vincent Jackson. Unfortunately for San Diego, his contract didn't represent that, and he says he is willing to hold out for ten weeks to get a new one. A trade seems inevitable at this point. But his loss is huge for a team that really didn't have a whole lot of other options at the wide-out position. He was their biggest, fastest choice, and became one of the league's best deep threats. Antonio Gates will probably have double teams on him at all times now, as teams will make Phillip Rivers throw to Malcom Floyd and Patrick Crayton, both of whom are fairly solid, neither of whom are #1-type guys. And to ask rookie Ryan Mathews to come in and fix the league's least productive rushing attack from a year ago is a bit much. The division is weak enough to win still, but come playoff time against the Baltimores, New Yorks, or Pittsburghs, a deep threat is pivotal for a team that struggles to run.

San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Willis surpasses Ray Lewis as the best middle linebacker in football. For the past decade and a half Ray Lewis has been the middle linebacker in football. Consistently getting 130+ tackles a year, he's been the standard by which all of his peers of this generation are judged. But at 35 one has to think Lewis has to slow down eventually, and he'll have to pass the torch to someone. Enter Willis. He has been in the league for three years, and here are his tackle totals: 174 in 2007, 141 in 2008, and 152 in 2009. He and Lewis are very similar. He doesn't quite have the pass coverage skills Lewis does, but he forces more fumbles and his instincts are just as good. Both are 6'1" and around 245 lbs. There are enough similarities between the two that when Lewis retires, Willis will be the new standard. Why hasn't his name been out there more if he's so good? Well he plays in San Francisco, and the only thing they've done since drafting Willis is fail to live up to high expectations. This year is different, though. Mike Singletary is a good coach (and was a Hall of Fame linebacker himself, mind you), the NFC West is easily the worst division in football, and the 49ers should pretty much win the division by default, even if they finish 9-7 or 8-8. Willis will put up the same numbers he has been, only this year they will be noticed.

Seattle Seahawks: They will finish in the Top-10 in run defense. There are a few reasons I think this. For one, their pass defense is so awful that teams will air it out all game long, and running the ball will not be necessary. But secondly, with the return of Lofa Tatupu (who missed eleven games last year with a torn pectoral muscle), the linebackers are fairly solid. Tatupu is consistently a 100-tackle guy who is very fast, and will plug up holes quickly. Last year the only bright spot was the fact that the team was 11th-best at stopping the run. They got worse from last year to this year, but they will make the leap into the top-10 in something.

St. Louis Rams: The team will improve from their 1-15 record. They will go 2-14.Did you know the Rams can say they beat the Patriots and Ravens this year? I mean, sure, it was in the pre-season, but sadly that might be the highlight of this team's season. Call me crazy but I highly doubt Sam Bradford, who hasn't played a full-fledged football game in 20 months, will magically make all the Rams' woes go away. This is a team that was 28th in passing, 20th in running, 25th against the pass, and 27th against the run. They have all sorts of problems on both sides of the ball. Steven Jackson is their only other talent, but he's averaged 335 touches since 2005, and he has had a history of back problems, including surgery this past off-season. They'll beat Tampa Bay in Week 7 and Kansas City in Week 15, but that's it.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kellen Winslow will have 90 receptions and 1200 yards receiving. I don't think Winslow is one of the top ten tight ends in the NFL. This prediction was basically made because he's the only one with prior success catching the football, and quarterback Josh Freeman will quickly realize that with Antonio Bryant gone for good, Winslow is his most reliable target (yes offense to Mike Williams). Winslow's 77 receptions were 38 more than the next closest player on the team (Bryant), and his 127 targets were 41 more than anyone else. Expect a career year not because Winslow is as good as his dad, or because he is an elite tight end. It's just that Tampa is so bad offensively that they literally have no other options.

Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson will not surpass 1500 yards. Yeah, last year Johnson ran for over 2000 yards and set a single-season record for yards from scrimmage. But that won't happen again for sure. Of the five running backs to rush for over 2000 yards before him, only one (Barry Sanders in 1998) managed to surpass even 1400 yards the following year. Furthermore, of those five backs, only Terrell Davis had more touches (417) than Johnson had last year (408), and the next year was the beginning of the end for Davis, as he played in only four games. Football is a vicious sport, and getting hit as much as much as Johnson was last year takes a whole lot out of the body. Johnson is only 24, so his body is still sprightly and youthful, but last year's production will make him an obvious target to teams. And as history has shown, don't expect another record-setting season.

Washington Redskins: The running game will finish 29th or worse. If this were 2005 the Redskins would easily be favored to win the NFC East. Donovan McNabb at quarterback. Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson in the backfield. Santana Moss and Joey Galloway at wide-out. Yikes. Unfortunately, it's 2010, and aside from McNabb, all of these players are washed up. Especially Portis and Johnson. After finishing just shy of 1500 yards two seasons ago, Portis missed half of last season, scoring only once en route to 494 yards. At 29, he's just about over the hill. Johnson rushed for almost 1800 yards in 2005, but has yet to play a full season since, nor has he surpassed 900 yards in a season. Last year he split time with Kansas City and Cincinnati and rushed for a mere 581 yards. I can't see this tandem being good, although with Mike Shanahan as their head coach they at least have a chance.

(NOTE: Stats from ESPN.com, NFL.com, and pro-football-reference.com)

The "What-If?" Game

Tiger Woods. Training camp no-shows/fat lards/issues. Tiger Woods again. Oh yeah, plus some baseball here and there (the Red Sox and Yankees played last weekend. It was the first time all year I actually cared about whether or not the Sox won for more than a microsecond.). Basically, it's a fairly quiet time. Thankfully pre-season football will be over in a few short weeks and the real thing will begin once again. But until then what is there to talk about for someone like me? Each of the last three weeks I'd written about the going-ons in the NFL, so I didn't want to do four consecutive weeks of that. If you want weekly football articles with the occasional sarcastic comment, may I recommend DJ Gallo's Offseason Pigskinpalooza on ESPN's Page 2. However, this week I've decided to play a game that never gets old, has no definitive answers, and never will. It's the "What-If" Game!! I picked a few of my own to discuss and asked my very loyal readers on FaceBook what they would like to hear (I expected at most 4 comments, so I was surprised when I ended up receiving twelve legitimate scenarios and an idiotic one). These have no rhyme or reason to them. They are merely what people wanted to see and whatever else happened to pop into my head.

Reader Questions:

"What if Phil Mickelson wasn't such a choke artist whenever he had a chance to become the world number one in golf?"

Well let's recap first in case you're one of the millions of people who don't follow golf. At the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational last week, world #1 Tiger Woods sucked. Not like a for-Tiger-he-struggled-but-for-everyone-else-it-was-okay performance. It was horrid for 4 days at a tournament he had won 7 times before, topped by a 77 on Sunday to finish +18. Phil Mickelson needed to finish in the Top 4 to overtake Woods' #1 world ranking. He started the day tied for 10th. A 78 later (as in one stroke worse than the abomination that was Tiger's final round), he finished tied for 46th. This marked yet another missed opportunity for fan favorite Mickelson to call himself the best golfer in the world. However, the reasoning behind this is legit. On Tuesday Mickelson admitted he has been battling with a form of arthritis in which the body's immune system attacks the joints and tendons. There were times before and after the US Open where he couldn't move because of the pain. I'm no doctor, but I have a sneaking suspicion this could attribute to the fact that he hasn't played consistently well.

"What if the [Red] Sox didn't have so many injuries?"

The Red Sox this year might have topped last year's Mets in terms of injuries, which is pretty bad. Basically every key member of the Sox has missed significant time. Jacoby Ellsbury just returned in the Yankee series after playing only ten games all year. Dustin Pedroia broke his foot two months ago and hasn't returned. Victor Martinez missed a few weeks with a broken thumb, and during that time Jason Varitek broke his foot. Mike Cameron has appeared in only 48 games, and his season is probably over. Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Dai-suck-e Matsuzaka, Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima have all spent time on the disabled list. And in the biggest blow yet, Kevin Youkilis is out for the year with a freak thumb injury. For die-hard Boston fans the names Daniel Nava, Darnell McDonald, and Eric Patterson are becoming everyday names. That shouldn't be happening. There was a point where I'm pretty sure the team was made up of more PawSox than Red Sox, which considering Pawtucket is 16 games under .500 and 19 games out of first place is bad. Somehow with all this the Sox are only 4.5 games out of first place in both the division and the wild card. That being said, one has got to think if all the pieces were together for 140-150 games, Boston would be first or second in the division. Using the impossible-to-calculate Wins Above Replacement (WAR stat) from baseball-reference.com -- which is pretty accurate here, considering half the Sox lineups are made up of mostly replacement players -- Pedroia, Youk, Ellsbury, Cameron and Martinez combined for a WAR of 3.7 last year. Getting more technical, Youkilis' was 6.4 and Pedroia's was 4.9. Basically the absence of those players alone cost the team 3-6 wins. Add in Beckett and Matsuzaka, who have missed about 18 starts total, and that's another 5 wins. Right there is more than enough to give the Sox the divison title. So, in short, if the Sox didn't have so many injuries, with the way they have played in spite of everything, they probably would have won the division title. I think it is too steep a hill to climb out of now, though.

"What if Ben Roethlisberger didn't sexually assault that girl and get himself suspended?"

Well firstly, I would like to acknowledge that he allegedly assaulted her (wink-wink) and that no charges were filed due to the fact that the security tapes were mysteriously "taped over". Don't go implying he's a rapist, because while he probably is, according to the laws of our amazing justice system, he isn't. Anyways, had he not been an idiot, the Steelers would be a heck of a lot better off after missing the playoffs last year. It looks as though Big Ben will miss only four games, as opposed to five or six, so that's helpful for Pittsburgh. Weeks 1-4 are at home versus Atlanta, at Tennessee, at Tampa, and home against Baltimore. Without Roethlisberger, the Steelers are going to have to rely heavily on the running game (as seen in last year's game against Baltimore, where Dennis Dixon barely threw the ball), which struggled mightily at times last year. And considering the Falcons, Titans, and Ravens were all top-10 in rushing defense last year, it suddenly puts a helluva lot of pressure on Rashard Mendenhall's shoulders. With him, Pittsburgh would be able to have a balanced running and passing attack, but instead the defenses will most certainly load the box with seven or eight men and make Byron Leftwich, Dennis Dixon, or (shudder) Charlie Batch beat them. Basically, Mendenhall and the defense need to play out of their minds. If Roethlisberger wasn't such an idiot, the Steelers would have started off 3-1 at worst. Now I'd say 2-2 is much more likely.

"What if LeBron James never wins a championship in his career?"

This is probably the question that is most up for debate. There very little doubt that there has ever been a player with the athleticism, strength, size, and speed that James has. He is unstoppable, but could never get over the hump and win a ring by himself in Cleveland. Now he's teamed up with Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, and an increasing list of very solid veterans in Miami to form a very scary team on paper. One would guess within five years the team will have won two or three titles. But then there is always the question of whether the egos of James and Wade clash in crunch time, can the team hold it together? However, that isn't the question. If James does not win a title, I would probably cry of joy the day he retires, for there is no one -- absolutely no one -- I hate more in sports. This summer he even managed to surpass A-Rod and Tom Brady. In terms of his legacy, that's an interesting debate. Dan Marino never won a Super Bowl, yet people put him in the discussion of greatest quarterbacks ever. But basketball is different. Bill Russell is a top-5 all-time player because he won so many rings. Michael Jordan is undoubtedly the greatest player ever, and he won six titles. Would we revere his competitive drive as much if he only won once or twice? Magic and Bird won multiple titles, as did Kareem. John Stockton, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, Elgin Baylor, and Patrick Ewing never won a title, and while they are all Hall of Famers without question, none are in the running for greatest of all-time. In the NBA, championships and legacies go hand in hand. Without at least a few rings, James can be the greatest skilled player of all-time, but it won't matter. He will not surpass the Magics, the Birds, heck, even the Kobes of NBA greatness.

"What if the Mets didn't suck male human reproductive genitalia?" (So I might have edited that one slightly)

Well, quite simply, if the Mets were good, they would probably be third in the NL East, behind Atlanta or Philadelphia, because while they have the parts, they don't seem to have the results to show for them. Theoretically a team with David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, and Francisco Rodriguez would be very good, yet the Metropolitans had two epic September collapses in '07 and '08, were riddled with injuries last year, and simply aren't very good this year, being 56-56 through Monday and 7.5 out of first place.

"What if the [Red] Sox never traded Jeff Bagwell or Hanley Ramirez?"

This is probably my favorite question. In 1990 the Red Sox traded top prospect Bagwell to Houston for 36-year-old relief pitcher Larry Andersen (whose Phillies' jersey, might I add, I am a proud owner of) in what is considered one of the worst trades in baseball history. Had he stayed a Red Sox player, he wouldn't have even had a chance to play until 1993, when Wade Boggs bolted for the Evil Empire. Then if he transitioned from third base to first, like he did in Houston, he would have had to compete with Mo Vaughn, who from 1993-98 was the most productive first baseman in the American League. He would probably not have hit 449 homers and driven in 1500+ runs. Then there would have been the dark cloud on the Boston organization with Bagwell's association with steroids. Now, there is no proof that Bagpipes ever took steroids, but merely being mentioned can taint everything a player ever did. I don't think he did take them, but perception is everything, and the perception of a few ill-advised souls can change everything.

As for Ramirez, if he isn't traded, the Red Sox do not win the World Series in 2007. He and Anibal Sanchez were traded to Florida in 2006 in return for Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, and Guillermo Mota. In '07 Beckett went 20-7 with an earned run average of 3.27, and in the postseason he went 4-0 with an ERA around 1.50. Lowell, meanwhile, hit .324 while amassing almost 200 hits and driving in 120 runs. He was also the World Series MVP. As much as I loved Bill Mueller, getting rid of him before the '06 season was best, because Lowell was exponentially more productive than Mueller and his bad knees. As good a player as Ramirez is, Boston would not have been spoiled with another World Series title.

Among other ridiculous questions.... "What if Randy Jackson played in the MLB?" and "What if OJ got back into the NFL? :o"

Randy Jackson would suck as a pitcher or a fielder. Probably not as bad as him or him, but not much better. OJ, on the other hand, would sign with the Redskins and compete with Larry Johnson, Clinton Portis, and Willie Parker for the spot of "least sucky old running back." However, since Mike Shanahan hasn't used a one-back system basically since Terrell Davis retired, all four will get playing time. Simpson will be the 20th-22nd running back taken in ESPN Fantasy Leagues because of this, but he'll be on Matthew Berry's "Hate List" for Weeks 1, 2, and 4 because his opponents were top-10 rushing defenses last year. But look on the bright side -- he'd probably be more effective than LaDainian Tomlinson.

"What if sports never existed?"

Lots of things would change. I would spend all my time on my laptop and watching re-runs of Seinfeld. Brett Favre would spend his summer days mowing his ridiculously huge lawns on his John Deere riding mower in his worn-out Wrangler jeans and dirty cap. Michael Jordan would spend all his time at casinos to feed his competitive drive. Tiger Woods would be a bachelor having sex with every possible woman. Kurt Warner would have spent the '90s bagging at his local grocery store. No one would know who Elmer Flick and George Stone were. And no one would care about the WNBA. See, life as we know it would be drastically different.

"What if [Mark] McGwire gets in the Hall of Fame?"

It would be astronomical if McGwire, or any admitted steroid user, got into Cooperstown, seeing as it's not happening anytime soon. The writers, who vote on who gets into the Hall, have made it quite clear they will not vote for anyone who has juiced, which is why McGwire only received 23.7% of votes (75% is required for election) in 2010. That would mean that Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds, among scattered others, would have no shot at getting into the Hall. While I understand the idea that they cheated and should be left out, a huge piece of baseball history is being ignored -- the home run king, two other 600-home run hitters, a 3000-hit member, and a 300-game winner. As long as Pete Rose is left out, no steroid user should ever be allowed in. But if someone like Bonds or McGwire gets in, then it opens up the floodgates for a whole group of juicers that could taint the honor of being in the hallowed grounds of Cooperstown.

My Questions:

"What if David Tyree didn't put a bottle of super glue on his helmet make the ridiculous helmet catch in Super Bowl XLII?"

It is perhaps behind only the Immaculate Reception and "The Catch" in terms of fame (and for New England fans, infamy). David Tyree, the 4th string receiver, making the unbelievable catch against his helmet as Rodney Harrison is taking him down, completing a play where the refs missed about 35 holding calls Eli Manning slithered away from a group of Pats defenders and heaved the ball into the air. A few plays later it was Manning-to-Burress and the mighty Patriots were undefeated no more. If he doesn't catch the ball, it is 4th-and-5 with :59 to go. Manning to that point was 14-for-22 on throws of 10 yards or less, averaging 8.2 yards per reception according to my research. In the 4th quarter he was 5-for-7 and averaged 10 yards a catch. So I believe New York would have gotten the first down and gone into Patriots' territory. From there, however, I think the drive would have stalled, seeing as how Eli was only 1-of-8 on deep throws to that point. The Patriots' defense holds, they go undefeated, Tom Brady is the golden boy (it's disgusting isn't it?), David Tyree ends his career in anonymity, and Mercury Morris finally goes away for good.

(On the note of Tyree retiring, I think it is stupid how he signed a one-day contract to retire a Giant. His career stats (54 receptions, 650 yards) amassed over a five-year season are crappy for a good receiver in one year, let alone half a decade. One-day contracts are meant for Emmitt Smith, Jerry Rice, sure-fire Hall of Famers who are among the greatest at their positions. Robert Horry did not get a one-day contract from the Lakers, Spurs, or Rockets for his numerous clutch playoff shots. Dexter Jackson was the MVP of Super Bowl XXXVII for Tampa Bay, yet he's out of the NFL without a one-day contract. I understand the significance of the Helmet Catch, but I don't think it's grounds for something like a one-day contract, because if he hadn't been so lucky, no one would have known his name. One-day contracts are for established skill players. Sorry)

"What if the Braves or Pirates had scouted Willie Mays?"

That's right. Willie Mays could have been in the same outfield as either Hank Aaron or Roberto Clemente. Scary thought, eh? From James Hirsch's biography Willie Mays: The Life, The Legend:

Some scouts blew their chance for immortality simply because they couldn't judge talent. In 1949, a Pittsburgh Pirate scout... Piper Davis approached [Birmingham Black Barons' owner Tom Hayes] in a hotel lobby in New Orleans.

"Give us $2000 and you can have that kid," [Hayes] said.

"Nah," the scout said. "Even if he got him, we'd make a pitcher out of him"

Could you imagine that outfield? If I were the Pirates manager I would have put Mays in left center, Clemente in right center, and had the third outfielder stand behind second. That would easily be the best outfield in baseball, even with only two out there, and it would be as good or better than Aaron and Eddie Mathews batting-wise. Yikes.

The Boston Braves had an even better shot at The Say Hey Kid. One scout, Bill Maughn, absolutely loved Mays, but could not sign him until he graduated from school. He wrote to the Braves' front office "here is the best standout prospect available in the nation." After waiting a year for Willie to graduate school another scout was sent out, Mays went just 1-for-8 in a doubleheader, and no offer was ever made. As good as Mays and Clemente would have been, Mays and Aaron would have been better. That's 1415 home runs, 7054 hits, and 4200 runs batted in. That's 49 All-Star Game selections and 15 Gold Gloves. Along with Mathews in the lineup and Warren Spahn on the mound, that team would have been damn near unbeatable. The dogfights the Yankees and Braves would have had throughout the '50s would have been ridiculous. And Mays would have more than one World Series ring, while Aaron would have had his. Betcha that scout felt pretty damn stupid, eh?

What if Barry Bonds threw out Sid Bream?

It is one of the more famous baseball plays of the last twenty years. Bottom 9, 1992 NLCS Game 7. The Braves' Francisco Cabrera gets a basehit to left. The tying run scored, and charging around third was Sid Bream, who would score to win the game, and for the third consecutive year the division-winning Pirates were denied a trip to the World Series. But if Bream is out, then what happens? If the Pirates go to the World Series, Bonds and other starters might stay in Pittsburgh (between 1992 and '93 seven starters left). Bonds might not get into steroids, and as Bill Simmons' wrote a few years back, "retire with a respectable 550 home runs and go quietly into Cooperstown". The Pirates might have remained relevant for a few more years instead of being a laughingstock since that fateful night in Atlanta. (Random trivia question: What 25-year-old went 8-1 in 13 starts with a 2.15 ERA for the '92 Pirates? Tim Wakefield)

What if Roberto Clemente's plane was looked at closely?

In one of the most tragic sports stories ever, Roberto Clemente died on New Year's Eve 1972 when his plane crashed going to Nicaragua, with the intention of helping victims of an earthquake. Reading David Maraniss's Clemente, the DC-7 that Clemente boarded that day was in desperate need of engine replacement. A few weeks prior the pilot of the plane, Arthur Rivera, was told by an FAA officer that one was necessary, however the officer "did not issue a condition notice requiring that engine repairs be made before the next flight, instead marking 'satisfactory' and 'no further action required' on the FAA inspection forms." When recommended that he take a test run, there was one problem: Rivera did not know how to fly the plane. It was no wonder the plane went down. But what if that plane does not take off? From a baseball standpoint, Clemente already had 3000 hits (exactly), and at 37 he probably could have added a good 200-300 more. Today he is in the discussion for best ever all-around player. With the extra few years, there would be no doubt -- the best ever players would be Henry Aaron, William Mays, and Roberto Clemente.